Group 1: Company Performance - Bristol Gate Capital Partners' US Equity Strategy underperformed the S&P 500® Total Return Index in Q3 2025, primarily due to limited exposure to the AI/TMT and Value sectors, which benefited from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [1] - The portfolio achieved a 15% dividend growth over the trailing 12 months, supported by strong underlying fundamentals [1] Group 2: Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE:CARR) - Carrier Global Corporation's stock experienced a one-month return of -0.72% and a 52-week decline of 21.73%, closing at $53.43 per share with a market capitalization of $45.47 billion on December 30, 2025 [2] - Despite quarterly results meeting or exceeding consensus estimates, Carrier's stock fell due to concerns over weak US residential HVAC orders and negative product mix affecting margins [3] - CEO David Gitlin indicated a lower Q3 volume forecast at a Morgan Stanley industry conference, citing a nearly 30% reduction in industry volumes for July and similar declines projected for August and September, with high interest rates and dealer destocking as primary headwinds [3] Group 3: Hedge Fund Interest - Carrier Global Corporation was held by 48 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a decrease from 53 in the previous quarter, indicating reduced interest among hedge funds [4] - While acknowledging Carrier's potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Carillon Tower Advisers released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter for the Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund, highlighting the S&P 500 Index's year-to-date return of 13.7% and emphasizing the reliance on AI deployment as a key market driver [1] - The fund's top holdings include Carrier Global Corporation, which has shown a one-month return of -0.42% and a 52-week gain of 25.43% [2] - Carrier Global Corporation's stock underperformed in the third quarter due to lowered guidance in its residential HVAC segment, reflecting softer demand trends and dealer destocking [3] Company Performance - Carrier Global Corporation reported sales of $5.6 billion in the third quarter of 2025, with a market capitalization of $47.981 billion as of November 11, 2025 [4] - The company's stock closed at $56.97 per share, indicating a significant increase over the past year despite recent underperformance [2][4] - The company is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 53 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of the second quarter [4] Market Context - The current market performance is heavily influenced by growth and momentum, particularly in AI-related stocks, which poses a risk if the AI deployment narrative weakens [1] - The reset in Carrier's residential HVAC guidance has overshadowed stable results in its commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments, raising concerns about near-term earnings [3] - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential compared to Carrier Global Corporation, suggesting a shift in investment focus [4]

Core Insights - Carrier Global (CARR) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, with expectations of adjusted EPS around $0.80 and sales near $6 billion, indicating mid-single-digit organic growth year-over-year [2][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently at 55 cents per share, reflecting a 14% decrease over the past 30 days and a year-over-year decline of 33.73% [2][3] - Revenue estimates stand at $5.53 billion, suggesting a 7.62% year-over-year decline [3] Performance Influencers - Strong demand in the Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector and aftermarket services is anticipated to drive revenue growth in Q3 [4] - The integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions is expected to enhance heat pump volumes and expand sustainable energy solutions [5] - Aftermarket services have been experiencing double-digit growth, likely continuing in the upcoming quarter [5] - Currency movements are projected to provide a $200 million year-over-year benefit from foreign currency translation, alongside another $200 million from tariff-related pricing adjustments [6] Challenges - Declining residential sales in the Americas due to weaker consumer demand and high inventory levels, as well as ongoing softness in residential sales in China, are expected to challenge performance [7] - Unfavorable product and regional mix in Europe, along with tariff-related margin pressures, may further impact quarterly results [7] Earnings Outlook - The current Earnings ESP for Carrier Global is +1.72%, but it holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating lower odds of an earnings beat [8]