January 28, 2026 03:37 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Greater China Technology Hardware: Will Input Cost Hike Change the 2026 Profit Outlook? | M | | Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley | Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | Foundation | | January 28, 2026 03:37 PM GMT | | | | | | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | | | | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | | | | | | | Sharon Shih | | | | | | | Equity Analyst ...

Core Insights - Nvidia is the leader in the AI accelerator market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 29% through 2030, indicating continued strong performance for Nvidia [1] - With a market cap of $4.6 trillion, achieving significant stock price growth becomes increasingly challenging, prompting investors to consider smaller companies with higher growth potential [2] Company Analysis Micron Technology - Micron develops high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is in high demand due to the AI data center boom, positioning it favorably in the market [3] - In Q1 of fiscal 2026, Micron reported revenue of $13.6 billion, a 57% increase year-over-year, with net income reaching $5.2 billion compared to $1.9 billion in the same quarter last year [4] - The stock price has risen by 250% over the past year, leading to a market cap of over $340 billion, with a P/E ratio of 34, slightly above the S&P 500 average [6] Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is well-positioned to compete with Nvidia, with a market cap around $380 billion and plans to release the MI450 AI accelerator, which may outperform Nvidia's offerings [7][8] - In Q3 of 2025, AMD's revenue was $9.2 billion, reflecting a 36% year-over-year growth, with net income of $1.2 billion and a profit growth rate of 61% [9] - Despite a P/E ratio of 115, AMD's forward P/E of 35 suggests potential for rapid profit growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity [11]

Core Insights - Retail investors have shown significant interest in five stocks this week, driven by hype around AI and corporate news, including Nebius Group NV, IREN Ltd., D-Wave Quantum Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Oklo Inc. [1] Nebius Group NV (NBIS) - Nebius Group is experiencing bullish momentum due to its plans for early adoption of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, with Morgan Stanley initiating coverage and projecting a potential upside of 23.55% [5] - The stock has a 52-week range of $18.31 to $141.10, currently trading around $103 to $105, with a yearly increase of 176.36% and 94.87% over the last six months [6] IREN Ltd. (IREN) - IREN has gained analyst enthusiasm, particularly after a significant Microsoft contract, leading H.C. Wainwright to upgrade the stock to Buy with a price target of $80 [6] - Bernstein has reiterated IREN as a top AI pick for 2026, reflecting optimism in AI demand following CES [6] D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) - D-Wave Quantum has made a key technical breakthrough in scalable on-chip cryogenic control of qubits, enhancing its roadmap towards error-corrected systems [11] - The stock has a 52-week range of $5.12 to $76.87, trading around $51 to $53, with a yearly return of 353.19% and 199.77% over the last six months [11] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - Microsoft is facing a near-term decline amid news of an emergency auction for power contracts, but sentiment remains positive with predictions of reclaiming a $4 trillion valuation [15] - The stock has a 52-week range of $344.79 to $555.45, currently trading around $456 to $458, with a yearly increase of 7.56% but a decline of 9.68% over the last six months [16] Oklo Inc. (OKLO) - Oklo is advancing a nuclear power campus project in partnership with Meta Platforms, with pre-construction expected to start in 2026 and first power by 2030 [16] - The stock has a 52-week range of $4.45 to $46.75, trading around $28 to $30, with a yearly increase of 394.32% and 69.84% over the last six months [12]

Core Insights - Retail investors have shown significant interest in five stocks this week, driven by retail hype, AI developments, and corporate news [1] Group 1: Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS) - Nebius Group is experiencing bullish momentum due to its early adoption plans for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, expected in the second half of 2026 [5] - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Nebius, highlighting aggressive scaling targets and strategic positioning in AI infrastructure, indicating a potential upside of 23.55% [5] - The stock has a 52-week range of $18.31 to $141.10, trading around $103 to $105, with a yearly increase of 176.36% and 94.87% over the last six months [6] Group 2: IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ:IREN) - IREN is benefiting from renewed analyst enthusiasm, particularly due to a significant Microsoft hyperscaler contract [6] - H.C. Wainwright upgraded IREN to Buy with a price target of $80, citing its exposure to AI demand through the Microsoft deal [6] - The stock has a 52-week range of $4.45 to $46.75, trading around $28 to $30, with a yearly increase of 394.32% and 69.84% over the last six months [12] Group 3: D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE:QBTS) - D-Wave Quantum has made a key technical breakthrough in scalable on-chip cryogenic control of gate-model qubits, enhancing its dual-platform roadmap [11] - The stock has a 52-week range of $5.12 to $76.87, trading around $51 to $53, with a yearly return of 353.19% and 199.77% over the last six months [11] Group 4: Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) - Positive sentiment surrounds Microsoft despite a near-term decline, with predictions of reclaiming a $4 trillion valuation amid rising power costs [15] - The stock has a 52-week range of $344.79 to $555.45, trading around $456 to $458, with a yearly increase of 7.56% but a decline of 9.68% over the last six months [16] Group 5: Oklo Inc. (NYSE:OKLO) - Oklo is advancing a nuclear power campus project in Ohio, supported by a multi-billion-dollar agreement with Meta Platforms [16] - The stock has a 52-week range of $17.42 to $193.84, trading around $91 to $93, with a yearly surge of 277.42% [18]

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of the AI Stocks Analysts Are Watching Closely. On January 6, Bank of America reiterated the stock as “Buy,” noting that the AI chipmaker is still a top AI pick following the company's presentation at the Consumer Electronics Show on Monday. Analysts highlighted how CEO Jensen Huang highlighted robust demand for AI computing at Nvidia’s CES 2026 keynote and financial analyst Q&A. The new Vera Rubin platform was introduced, along with six new AI slated for the second ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's overall outlook for 2023 remains positive despite uncertainties in China, driven by demand for AI accelerators and wafer fab equipment [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh raised Nvidia's 2026 price target from $245 to $275, indicating a nearly 48% increase from the current price of $185.95 [2] - Stifel analyst Ruben Roy reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a $250 price target, citing a more optimistic outlook on China and new payment policies for Chinese customers [4] - Citi maintained a "Buy" rating with a $270 price target, bolstered by insights from the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) [5] - Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya also reiterated a "Buy" rating with a price target of $275, highlighting Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin platform and AI scaling potential [6] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Wall Street shows widespread optimism for Nvidia, with 39 "Buy" ratings, one "Hold," and one "Sell" over the past three months, reflecting strong investor confidence [7] - The average price target for Nvidia shares over the next 12 months is $264.14, suggesting a potential rally of 42.75% by year-end [9]

Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) is one of the hot tech stocks to invest in. On January 7, Bank of America raised the firm’s price target on SanDisk to $390 from $300 with a Buy rating on the shares. Following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s presentation of the Vera Rubin platform at CES 2026, analysts have grown increasingly bullish on the role of NAND in AI infrastructure. The platform’s new Inference Context Memory Storage tier, powered by the BlueField-4 DPU, allows for significantly larger context window ...

Industry Overview - U.S. semiconductor industry is expected to experience 30% year-over-year growth, marking the first-ever $1 trillion year in chip sales [1] - Key drivers include strong demand visibility, secular growth from AI, and cyclical industrial inventory replenishment [2] - The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index has risen about 7% year-to-date and 45% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 [5] Company Insights - **NVIDIA Corp**: - Maintains unmatched leadership with a full-stack AI strategy and projected $26 billion in R&D spending for CY26, significantly higher than competitors [6] - Next-generation Vera Rubin platform is on track for second-half shipments, promising substantial performance improvements [7] - Expected to maintain gross margins in the mid-70% range despite rising costs, with potential upside from China H200 shipments estimated to exceed $40 billion [8] - **Credo Technology Group**: - Recent sell-off presents a compelling buying opportunity, with a Buy rating maintained despite trading 34% below its 52-week high [9] - Positioned as a leader in active electrical cables, with fiscal 2027 EPS estimates up approximately 160% over the past year [10] - **Analog Devices**: - Maintains a Buy rating, noted for strong pricing power due to differentiated products and a favorable mix related to aerospace, defense, and AI [11] - Offers a balance of strong free cash flow generation and pricing leverage amidst macro uncertainty [12]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is experiencing a positive shift in market sentiment due to new policies for Chinese customers and optimistic analyst ratings, indicating potential growth in sales and earnings from the region [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Stifel analyst Ruben Roy maintains a "Buy" rating on Nvidia with a price target of $250, citing a more optimistic outlook on sales in China [1]. - Citi has also reiterated a "Buy" rating with a price target of $270, bolstered by positive discussions at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) [2]. - Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya rates Nvidia a "Buy" with a price target of $275, highlighting the company's leadership in AI and upcoming product launches [3]. - Overall, Wall Street shows strong support for Nvidia, with 39 "Buy" ratings compared to only one "Hold" and one "Sell" [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The average price target for Nvidia is $263.76, suggesting nearly 40% upside potential by 2026, positioning it as one of the best-rated stocks this year [5]. - The introduction of upfront-payment and zero-cancellation policies for Chinese H200 customers is expected to enhance demand and potentially lead to significant sales if export licenses are approved [1].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Transcripts Industry Overview: Semiconductors Core Insights - **Strong Demand for AI Infrastructure**: Companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Marvell reported ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure, driven by both physical and agentic AI in the medium term [2][6]. - **Incremental Drivers**: Nvidia introduced a new context memory storage platform aimed at enhancing AI model performance, while AMD is set to launch its MI400 series GPUs in 2026 and MI500 series in 2027 [2][9]. - **Market Dynamics**: Micron noted a robust DRAM supply/demand environment with strong pricing, consistent with previous earnings calls, and similar strength in the NAND market due to AI datacenter demand [2][19]. Company-Specific Highlights - **Nvidia (NVDA)**: - Anticipates a strong volume ramp for its Rubin platform in 2H26, with no major supply constraints reported [6][8]. - Launched an AI-native storage infrastructure platform to support larger context memory for GPUs, enhancing model performance [8]. - Price target set at $250 based on a 30X P/E multiple [7]. - **AMD (AMD)**: - Introduced the MI440X GPU for enterprise AI and plans to launch the Helios rack in 2026 [9][12]. - Price target set at $210 based on a 30X P/E multiple [10]. - **Analog Devices (ADI)**: - Experiencing a cyclical recovery with demand led by Industrial and Communications markets, though customer restocking is minimal [11][13]. - Price target set at $300 based on a 30X P/E multiple [14]. - **Marvell Technology (MRVL)**: - Announced acquisition of XConn Technologies to enhance networking capabilities, with strong order momentum [15][16]. - Price target set at $90 based on a 27X P/E multiple [18]. - **Micron Technology (MU)**: - Strong DRAM market conditions with expectations of ~20% growth in industry bit supply for CY2026 [20]. - Price target set at $235 based on a 15X P/E multiple [20]. - **ON Semiconductor (ON)**: - Stable demand trends with no notable customer restocking activity [22]. - Price target set at $60 based on a 17X P/E multiple [23]. - **Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)**: - Solid unit traction at major customers, though potential demand destruction in the smartphone market is a concern [25][29]. - Not rated currently [26]. - **Texas Instruments (TXN)**: - Highlighted refreshed product lines across various applications, but revenue conversion may take time [27]. - Price target set at $156 based on a 25X P/E multiple [28]. - **Synopsys (SNPS)**: - Emphasized synergies between chip design and physical simulation, with a new product expected in 1H26 [30]. - Price target set at $600 based on a 40X P/E multiple [31]. Additional Considerations - **Market Risks**: Key risks across companies include potential slowdowns in AI infrastructure spending, increased competition, and supply constraints [7][10][18]. - **Inventory Levels**: Many companies report lean inventories, with expectations of future restocking as demand stabilizes [11][13][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call transcripts, highlighting the semiconductor industry's current landscape and individual company trajectories.