Key crude prices in the Middle East have dropped to their weakest level against the Brent benchmark in two months, signaling oversupplied markets as output from both the Middle East and the Americas rises amid tepid demand. The premium of Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban grade over Brent, the international benchmark, has narrowed in recent weeks and is now at its lowest level since early October, according to estimates by Bloomberg. In Dubai, the discount of the benchmark against Brent had grown to its wides ...

  Is Now the Right Time to Finally Go Short on Oil Futures? - Behind the façade of calm oil markets, a gradual build-up in speculative positions could be undermining future prices of Brent or WTI as both benchmarks remain on their longest runs below their 100-day moving average in more than a year. - Open interest held in ICE Brent is now the highest in history – 5.5 million contracts as of this week – however investors hold more Dec 2026 contracts than any other month except for the prompt two, Febru ...

The national average price of gasoline has continued on a downward trend after dropping below $3 a gallon a week ago, sinking to their lowest level since 2021. The median U.S. gas price is now $2.79 per gallon, with the national average 4 cents lower from a week ago. However, prices vary widely by state, with motorists in Oklahoma paying $2.366 per gallon compared to $4.469 in California. Diesel prices have seen an even steeper decline, with the national average price of diesel currently standing at $3.671 ...

The national average price of gasoline dropped below $3 a gallon over the weekend, sinking to their lowest level since 2021. The median U.S. gas price is now $2.83 per gallon, with the national average 6.9 cents cheaper from a month ago and 5.4 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. However, prices vary widely by state, with drivers in Oklahoma paying $2.409 per gallon compared to $4.560 in California. According to GasBuddy, a handful of gas stations are offering gas under $2 per gallon. That said, diese ...

Market Overview - Stock futures showed modest early gains as markets entered the Thanksgiving week with cautious optimism, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.99%, S&P 500 futures gaining 0.68%, and Dow futures adding 0.36% [1][17] - The S&P 500 rose 0.98% over the previous week, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow advanced 0.77% and 1.08% respectively, although all three benchmarks are on track to close November in the red due to heavy selling in AI stocks [1][17] Economic Indicators - Investors are tracking key U.S. economic data, including October retail sales and the Producer Price Index, which are important signals for the Federal Reserve's next policy steps [3][17] - Treasury markets reflected improving sentiment, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.05% [3][17] Sector Performance - Persistent fears of an AI bubble, concerns over profit sustainability, and reduced risk appetite have contributed to a pullback in the AI sector [2][17] - Rate-cut hopes emerged after New York Fed President John Williams suggested there is room for additional adjustments to monetary policy, prompting increased bets on a possible December rate cut [2][17] Commodities Market - In commodities, WTI crude traded near $57.75 and trended lower, while Brent crude also weakened [4][12][17] - Gold prices approached $4,062 per ounce despite slight early softness, and silver held below $50 [4][12][17] Pre-Market Activity - Pre-market trading showed strong activity in small-cap and tech-linked names, with notable movers including JX Luxventure up 36.23% to $4.70 and Epsium Enterprise gaining 26.18% to $4.53 [10][16][17] - Crypto-linked stocks gained even as Bitcoin slipped 1.19% to $85,753, while the Nasdaq Crypto Index rose 2.17% [7][14][17] Global Market Trends - Asian markets were mostly higher, with the Hang Seng up 1.97%, the Shanghai Composite up 0.05%, and the Shenzhen Component up 0.47%, while Japan's markets were closed for a holiday [7][17]

Core Insights - Indian refiners' shift away from Russian oil has led to a significant increase in oil product prices, with ICE Brent-Gasoil crack spreads rising nearly 70% year-to-date, reaching a 21-month high above $32 per barrel [1] - U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest level since mid-July, which is expected to support product strength as the high-demand winter season approaches [2] - Despite the tightening distillates market, crude oil prices remain weak, influenced by bearish supply sentiment and geopolitical tensions, particularly Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure [3] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are reported at 205.06 million barrels, 8.2 million barrels below the five-year average, marking the lowest level in 12 years [1] - U.S. distillate inventories stand at 110.91 million barrels, 9.3 million barrels below the five-year average, indicating a tightening market as winter demand increases [2] - The ICE gasoil-Brent crack has exceeded $34 per barrel, the highest level since September 2023, with the price differential remaining above $30 per barrel for 10 consecutive trading days [2] Geopolitical and Supply Dynamics - Recent Ukrainian missile and drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have not significantly boosted oil prices, with Brent crude trading at $63.32 per barrel, showing minimal change from the previous week [3] - The port of Novorossiysk, a key export terminal with a capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, experienced a temporary suspension of loadings due to these attacks, highlighting vulnerabilities in the southern export route [3] - Analysts predict a slowdown in Russian crude exports following the upcoming sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, which could impact the overall supply dynamics in the market [4]

Core Insights - Oil markets have experienced volatility due to geopolitical developments, including new U.S. sanctions on Russian energy and a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, with oil prices trading ~$15/bbl below their 52-week peak [1] - The energy sector reported a third-quarter earnings growth of -0.5%, significantly below the market average growth of 13.1%, and the lowest revenue growth among all U.S. market sectors at 1.0% [1] Company Performance - Big Oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies, reported better-than-expected profits despite lower oil prices, with Exxon reporting Q3 earnings of $7.54 billion, a 12.4% decline year-over-year [2] - The combined net income of the four Big Oil companies exceeded $21 billion in the third quarter, despite oil prices declining more than 20% from the previous year [2] Cost Management and Production - Exxon achieved $2.2 billion in structural cost savings in Q3, totaling over $14 billion in cumulative savings since 2019, with a target of more than $18 billion by 2030 [3] - Exxon's breakeven point is now $10-15 per barrel lower than five years ago, with a portfolio-weighted breakeven of $40-42 per barrel, allowing for resilience against falling oil prices [3] - Exxon increased hydrocarbon production to 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, with significant contributions from the Permian and Guyana, and brought the Yellowtail project online ahead of schedule, expected to produce 250,000 boe/d [3]

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 earnings season for Oil/Energy companies is underway, with many companies exceeding expectations despite falling oil prices [1][2] - Improved natural gas prices have helped offset some weaknesses in crude oil, leading to a more resilient sector performance than anticipated [2][8] Revenue & Earnings Analysis - Year-over-year comparison shows a decline in average monthly WTI crude prices from $81.80, $76.68, and $70.24 per barrel in Q3 2024 to $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel in Q3 2025, indicating a weaker oil price environment [4] - In contrast, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices increased from $2.07, $1.99, and $2.28 in Q3 2024 to $3.20, $2.91, and $2.97 in Q3 2025, reflecting positive signals for natural gas [5] - The energy sector is projected to experience a 4.9% decline in earnings compared to Q3 2024, while revenues are expected to increase by 1% [6] Company Performance Highlights - Approximately 37.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, showing a 49.6% year-over-year earnings increase with a 5% rise in revenues [7] - Nearly 78% of companies have exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, indicating a broadly strong earnings season [8] Stock Recommendations - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6, with a historical earnings surprise of 7.1% on average [12] - Delek US Holdings (DK) has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +98.57%, set to release results on Nov. 7, with an average earnings surprise of 16.1% [13] - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +29.48%, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7, but has a historical average earnings surprise of -104.8% [14][15] - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with earnings release on Nov. 6, and an average earnings surprise of 23.8% [16]

Market Overview - The Holiday Season has begun in the United States, with a focus on market sectors as 2025 closes [1] - Global stock markets are performing well, particularly the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average show seasonal strength [1] Commodity Insights - Investors and central banks are increasingly buying Gold as a safe haven against economic uncertainty and persistent inflation [2] - Silver is gaining interest due to its industrial applications in green technologies, despite mixed sentiments in the US regarding "green" initiatives [2] Energy Market Analysis - The energy markets are described as stagnant, with forward curves in backwardation for Brent crude, WTI crude, and distillates, indicating a disconnect from traditional bullish supply and demand signals [2] - Natural gas is highlighted as a key market indicator, but the overall sentiment suggests looking for opportunities elsewhere in the energy sector [2]

Core Insights - The national average price of gasoline in the U.S. has recently dropped below $3 per gallon, attributed to OPEC+ increasing supply and weak global demand, with prices recorded at $2.969 per gallon, 16 cents lower than the previous year [1] - However, average gasoline prices rose back to $3.07 by the weekend due to new U.S. tariffs on Russian oil [2] - Brent crude oil prices saw a significant increase, trading at $66.42 per barrel, nearly a 10% rise from earlier lows, while WTI crude also increased to $61.94 per barrel [3] Sanctions and Market Impact - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on major Russian energy companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasizing the need for allies to adhere to these sanctions [4] - This marks a shift in the U.S. administration's approach, moving from a neutral mediator role to taking direct action against Russia, which may lead to higher gasoline prices for consumers in the near term [5] - Experts predict that the impact of these sanctions on gasoline prices will be felt within days, with potential for further price increases depending on geopolitical developments [6]