Oil prices surged to their highest level in months in Wednesday's session after reports emerged that U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing targeted strikes on Iranian military positions as he pursues regime change. Brent crude for March delivery was up 3.63% to trade at $70.92 per barrel at 12.40 pm ET, marking the first time Brent has crossed the pivotal $70 per barrel mark since July 2025, while the corresponding WTI contract gained 3.72% to $65.49. Unrest in the OPEC-producing country has left thousan ...

ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Volatility coursed through world markets on Thursday as fears over a U.S. strike on Iran and threat of another U.S. government shutdown rattled oil and metals, while AI bubble fears hammered tech stocks and pushed the ​Nasdaq and S&P 500 into the red. More on that below. In my column today I look at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome ‌Powell's press conference on Wednesday, and why it was revealing for what he didn't say on Fed independence rather than what he did say on the ...

Bond market stress, global geopolitical risk, and weather shocks at home have lifted Energy to the top sector spot YTDBaker Hughes’ Q4 report this weekend follows a slew of oil services company earnings Exxon Mobil and Chevron commentaries may be just as impactful as their Q4 numbers following the Maduro captureIt was a sea of red to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week yesterday. President Trump’s ambition to annex part or all of Greenland drew backlash from European leaders. A new set of tariffs ...

Market Overview - Markets opened weakly on Tuesday, with the Nifty 50 at 25,580.30, down 127.65 points or 0.50% from the previous close of 25,585.50, and the Sensex at 83,207.38, down 341.95 points or 0.41% from 83,246.18 [1] - The previous session saw the Nifty end 109 points lower and the Sensex drop by 324 points, with the Reality Index losing over 2% [2] Investor Sentiment - Concerns over potential US tariffs on Europe and geopolitical uncertainties are dampening investor sentiment, leading to continued market volatility [3] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth approximately ₹3,263 crore on January 19, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased around ₹4,234 crore, indicating a net selling of ₹26,000 crore by FIIs and net purchases of ₹34,000 crore by DIIs for January so far [3] Stock Performance - Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50, Kotak Mahindra Bank rose by 0.73% to ₹430.00, Hindustan Unilever increased by 0.58% to ₹2,427.80, and NTPC gained 0.48% to ₹345.00 [4] - On the losing side, Eicher Motors fell by 2.90% to ₹273.20, Bajaj Finance declined by 2.61% to ₹944.15, and Trent dropped by 1.87% to ₹3,872.00 [5] Economic Indicators - The IMF has raised India's FY 26 GDP growth rate to 7.3%, indicating robust economic performance despite challenges [6]

Group 1: U.S. Political Developments - U.S. President Donald Trump has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, indicating a shift away from diplomatic efforts to address the violent crackdown on protestors in Iran [1] - Trump's support for protestors highlights the ongoing anti-government demonstrations in Iran, which are among the largest in the region [1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude and Brent crude prices increased by over 2.5% during U.S. trading hours due to concerns that U.S. involvement in Iran could destabilize the oil market, given Iran's significant role as an oil producer [2] - The situation in Iran is particularly sensitive as it influences the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments [2] Group 3: U.S. Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced a dip despite the core consumer price index for December being lower than expected, indicating persistent inflation concerns [3] - Investor anxiety has been exacerbated by Trump's derogatory remarks towards Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which may affect market sentiment [3] Group 4: Central Bank Independence Concerns - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns that undermining central bank independence could lead to higher inflation expectations and increased interest rates over time [4]

Group 1 - U.S. President Donald Trump has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, indicating a shift away from diplomatic efforts to address the violent crackdown on protestors in Iran [1][2] - The cancellation of meetings has led to a more than 2.5% increase in WTI crude and Brent crude prices during U.S. trading hours, highlighting concerns over potential instability in the oil market due to U.S. involvement in Iran [2] - The situation in Iran, a major oil producer with influence over the Strait of Hormuz, raises the risk of market volatility, which could impact global oil supply and prices [2] Group 2 - U.S. stocks experienced a dip despite a cooler-than-expected core consumer price index for December, suggesting investor concerns about economic stability [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economic strategist noted that while inflation is not reheating, it remains above target, indicating ongoing economic challenges [3] - JPMorgan Chase CEO expressed concerns that attacks on central bank independence could lead to increased inflation expectations and higher interest rates over time, which may further complicate the economic landscape [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Armed Forces executed a raid on Venezuela, a significant oil-rich country, potentially marking the beginning of a new era of resource wars [1] - The attack caused immediate volatility in commodity markets, but prices stabilized after President Trump reassured investors [1] - The Pentagon Pizza Index indicated a spike in pizza orders before the attack, suggesting traders may use unconventional indicators to gauge geopolitical risks [3][4] Group 2 - The Trump Administration successfully seized President Nicolas Maduro during the strike, but the Vice President took control with military support [8] - The relevance of the Pizza Index may increase throughout 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions [9] - Iran is highlighted as a potential target for U.S. military action, which could further destabilize the oil market [10][11] Group 3 - Tensions in the Gulf of Aden involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen may also prompt U.S. involvement, affecting oil market stability [12] - The Pizza and Bar indices, while useful, should be considered minor tools for analysis and supplementary signals for investors [12]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a subdued trading session with low liquidity and volumes following the Christmas market closure, while precious and industrial metals saw significant price movements [1] - Silver prices surged over 6%, surpassing $76 an ounce, driven by a supply crunch in Asian markets [1] Precious Metals Performance - Silver's year-to-date gains reached approximately 164%, marking its strongest annual performance since 1978 [2] - Platinum prices increased by more than 8%, and palladium rose over 11%, with the Aberdeen Physical Platinum Shares ETF up 165% year to date, indicating platinum is on track for its best year on record [3] - Gold prices rose 1.3% to above $4,550 an ounce, while copper climbed 4.6%, recovering from a sharp selloff in July [3] Energy Market Insights - WTI crude oil prices slipped more than 1% amid progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [4] Equity Market Highlights - Freeport-McMoRan Inc., a copper producer, led the S&P 500 with a gain of about 3% [4] - Target Corp. increased by 2.1% following the disclosure of new stakes by activist investors [4] - Nvidia Corp. rose over 1% after analysts praised its $20 billion strategic deal with AI startup Groq, which is expected to enhance Nvidia's competitive position in artificial intelligence [5] Major Indices Performance - The S&P 500 traded flat near 5,930 points after reaching an intraday record of 5,945, on track for its eighth consecutive monthly gain, the longest winning streak since 2018 [6] - Bitcoin traded around $87,000, showing little change [6] Index Performance Summary - Nasdaq 100: 25,672.66 (+0.10%) [7] - S&P 500: 6,933.20 (+0.02%) [7] - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 48,688.73 (-0.09%) [7] - Russell 2000: 2,529.80 (-0.72%) [7] ETF Performance - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: flat at $634.23 [10] - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 0.2% to $486.17 [10] - Invesco QQQ Trust Series: eased 0.02% to $623.81 [10] - iShares Russell 2000 ETF: traded at $250.96 [11] - Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund: up 0.3% [11] - Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund: down 0.6% [11]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index closed at a new high following a strong GDP report, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Oil prices remained flat after experiencing the largest one-day gain in both dollar and percentage terms since October 23, with Brent crude at $62.10 per barrel and WTI crude at $58 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The U.S. seizure of oil tankers linked to Venezuela has heightened concerns regarding energy security and sanctions risk, as noted by a research strategist [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the Brent crude oil market and its dynamics in relation to global supply and demand factors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Crude Price Decline**: Brent crude prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, marking the lowest level in four years due to increased oil stockpiles and rising supply risks from Russia and Venezuela [3][4]. - **Global Stock Builds**: The pace of global visible stock builds has accelerated to 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the last 90 days, resulting in global oil storage reaching a four-year high [3][4]. - **Shifts in Oil Purchases**: Increased purchases of discounted Russian oil by China and India are freeing up more crude for OECD buyers, impacting pricing dynamics [3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: Higher exports from the Middle East and Brazil, along with a moderation in China's demand, have contributed to softer crude prices in Asia compared to the Atlantic region [3][4]. - **Contango Formation**: The combination of a large global surplus and seasonal builds in OECD is likely to flip Brent and WTI prompt timespreads into contango [3][4]. - **Long-Term Supply Risks**: Escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with potential negotiations for peace in Ukraine, present upside risks to long-term oil supply from these regions [3][4]. - **Net Supply Changes**: Trackable net supply has increased by 1.0 mb/d over the last week, driven by lower demand from OECD Europe and China, alongside higher production from Russia [3][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Refined Products Margins**: Margins for refined products have declined due to increased refinery output in the US, China, and Kuwait, and ongoing peace talks affecting market sentiment [4][5]. - **OECD Commercial Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks now stand at 2,812 million barrels, which is 56 million barrels below the end-of-December forecast [9][13]. - **China and OECD Demand**: The demand nowcast for China oil decreased by 0.3 mb/d to 17.4 mb/d, while OECD Europe oil demand decreased by 0.6 mb/d to 13.3 mb/d [39][45]. - **Oil Rig Counts**: The US oil rig count increased by 1 to 414, while Canada’s count decreased by 3 to 123 [10][9]. Conclusion - The oil market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations due to various geopolitical and economic factors. The decline in Brent prices, coupled with rising stock levels and changing demand dynamics, suggests a complex environment for investors and stakeholders in the oil industry. The potential for increased supply from Russia and Venezuela, along with shifts in purchasing patterns, will be critical to monitor in the coming months [3][4][10].