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跨境电商运营:全球关税影响下跨境电商表现与趋势展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-06 18:52
Global Macro Environment Changes - The global economic growth is projected to be 2.3% and trade growth at 1.6% in 2025, influenced by complex international dynamics [6] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the US on Chinese goods has led to a 2.6% increase in the median price of Chinese manufactured products [6] - The EU's cancellation of the €150 duty-free policy, along with rising logistics costs (8%-12%), advertising costs (CPC up by 9%), and return costs (30% of selling price), is putting pressure on merchant profits [6][7] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are shifting towards more prudent shopping habits, with 89% focusing on product origin and favoring local brands [6] - 33% of consumers are reducing non-essential purchases, while 34% are opting for lower-priced brands [6][7] - The overall consumer sentiment is marked by a decline in willingness to spend on non-essential items due to rising costs [7] E-commerce Growth Projections - Global retail e-commerce sales are expected to grow from $5,090 billion in 2022 to $7,886 billion by 2028, driven by digitalization and increased internet and smartphone penetration [6][10] - 54% of the global population owns a smartphone, and 2.77 billion people shop online, indicating a significant market potential [10] Platform Strategies and Competition - Major platforms are enhancing their competitive strategies, with Amazon launching the Rufus AI shopping assistant and expanding its presence in Ireland, while Temu has entered over 70 countries [11][12] - TikTok Shop is also expanding into multiple markets, focusing on AI empowerment, low-price strategies, and traffic expansion [11][12] - The 2025 Prime Day event saw a record online consumption of $24.1 billion in the US, a 30.3% year-on-year increase, with Amazon's total sales growing by 4.9% [16][18] Insights from Prime Day - The Prime Day event was extended to four days, with over 80% of Prime members participating, reflecting a significant increase in consumer engagement [18] - The average household spent $156 during the event, with 63% of consumers making two or more purchases [20] - High-growth categories included back-to-school supplies, children's products, home essentials, and electronics [16][20] Future E-commerce Growth Strategies - Companies are advised to refine their consumer engagement strategies by targeting specific demographics and enhancing advertising effectiveness [6] - There is a need to explore emerging markets such as Latin America, Southern Europe, and the Middle East, where e-commerce retail sales are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 10% from 2025 to 2029 [6][10] - Establishing independent online stores in North America and Europe has shown significant sales growth, with year-on-year increases of 65% and 520%, respectively [6]