Core Insights - Walmart's eCommerce performance is strong, with a 21% increase in U.S. sales and achieving profitability in U.S. eCommerce for the first time, which helps mitigate cost pressures from tariffs and supply chain issues [1][12][10] Financial Performance - First-quarter revenue growth was 2.5%, slower than projected, with U.S. comparable store sales growing by 4.5% driven by increased transactions and average ticket size [2][4] - The company anticipates sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in the current quarter, maintaining full fiscal year sales guidance at 4% [5] eCommerce and Membership Growth - eCommerce sales increased by 21%, with significant growth in store-fulfilled pickup and delivery, and Walmart Connect advertising growing by 31% [7][10] - Membership-related income rose by 3.8%, with Walmart+ fees experiencing double-digit growth [7][12] Tariff Impact and Cost Management - Tariffs are creating unprecedented cost pressures that Walmart cannot fully absorb due to narrow retail margins, particularly on products sourced from China [2][9] - The company is managing costs by absorbing some tariff impacts within categories and diversifying profit streams through eCommerce and advertising [10][9] Operational Insights - Delivery speed is a key driver of business, with a 91% increase in deliveries under three hours compared to the previous year [8] - Over 50% of Sam's Club members now transact digitally, indicating a shift towards omnichannel commerce [11] Market Outlook - The operating environment is fluid, making near-term earnings forecasts difficult due to the dynamic nature of tariffs and cost pressures [14][2] - The company remains cautiously optimistic, leveraging its scale and supplier base to navigate macroeconomic challenges [4][3]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of potential recession, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicting a 2.1% decline in Q1 GDP after earlier forecasts of over 2% growth [1] Walmart - Walmart is positioned as a top defensive stock, having gained 2% during the Covid recession while the S&P 500 lost 25%, and rose 12% during the Great Recession of 2008-2009 [2][3] - The company benefits from its size and scale, providing significant buying power that allows it to be a price leader during economic downturns [4] - Walmart's extensive reach means 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a store, which supports its Walmart+ membership growth, particularly among wealthier consumers [5] - Upper-income households, defined as those earning $100,000 or more, have been a key growth driver for Walmart, potentially increasing their patronage during a recession [6] - Walmart is also expanding its advertising and online marketplace businesses, enhancing fulfillment capabilities for third-party merchants [7] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's traditional cigarette business remains strong, with modest volume growth and strong pricing power, particularly in international markets [8] - The company's smokeless products, such as Zyn and IQOS, are significant growth drivers, with Zyn projected to see volume growth of 34% to 41% this year [9] - IQOS has also experienced solid growth, with plans for broader rollout in the U.S. pending FDA approval [10] - Zyn and IQOS offer better unit economics compared to traditional cigarettes, with Zyn's contribution level being six times greater and IQOS's twice as good [11] - The addictive nature of Philip Morris' products makes them resilient during economic downturns, and the company offers a 3.5% dividend yield, making it an attractive growth stock in a defensive industry [12]