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Altria vs. Philip Morris: Which Stock Smokes Out Better Returns?
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 15:36
Key Takeaways Altria's on! shipments rose 26.5% in Q2, lifting oral tobacco share to 8.7% and boosting margins.Philip Morris lifted 2025 EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, targeting 13-15% year-over-year growth.Philip Morris achieved $500M in cost savings in H1 2025, advancing toward a $2B efficiency goal.Altria Group, Inc. ((MO) and Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM) stand as two of the most recognized names in the global tobacco industry. While Altria primarily operates within the United States, Philip Morr ...
思摩尔国际20250825
2025-08-25 14:36
思摩尔国际 20250825 思摩尔国际 ODM 业务表现良好,尤其是在欧洲禁售一次性电子烟政策 下,代工业务率先修复。HNB 产品在日本试销获得积极反馈,并计划在 欧洲等市场陆续上市,预计将实现放量增长。 思摩尔国际对应 2025-2027 年的预测 PE 分别为 95 倍、60 倍和 42 倍, 估值较高,但基于行业前景和公司研发实力,市值解锁目标 3,000 亿可 期。 新型烟草三种形态(电子雾化、HNB、口含烟)目前渗透率均较低,不 存在直接竞争,各自满足不同减害需求,将在长期内共存并共同推动市 场发展。 新型烟草有哪些主要类型?它们各自的发展情况如何? 目前,新型烟草主要有三种类型:电子雾化烟、加热不燃烧(HNB)和口含烟 或尼古丁袋。电子雾化烟大约在 2000 年左右在中国诞生,经历了快速发展后, 由于全球政策监管收紧,自 2021 年起略有下行。加热不燃烧产品由菲莫国际 于 2014 年开创,通过降低温度减少有害物质释放,同时保留尼古丁摄取,自 发布以来经历了近十年的快速增长,但由于欧洲等国家对调味加热不燃烧产品 的监管,其增速近两年下滑至中低双位数水平。口含烟或尼古丁袋则通过口腔 黏膜吸收尼古 ...
Glo Hilo日本销售反馈积极,核心供应商思摩尔国际成长空间广阔
2025-08-24 14:47
Glo Hilo 日本销售反馈积极,核心供应商思摩尔国际成长 空间广阔 20250824 摘要 思摩尔国际的新产品于 2025 年 6 月 9 日在日本宫城县首次发布。宫城县是英 美烟草上一代产品 Hyper Glow 最早推广的地区,同时也是 HMB 渗透率最高 的地区之一,达到 56%。思摩尔选择该地作为首发地具有代表性,因为高渗透 率意味着消费者对该品类较为熟悉,有助于加快新产品教育和推广。在上市初 期,通过广告宣传和各种推广活动逐步提高知名度,目前其产品已在仙台市的 大多数便利店中陈列,并且位置较为显眼,如全家、罗森和 new days 等主流 便利店。 日本各主要品牌的新型烟草产品有哪些差异化特点? 日本主要品牌的新型烟草产品在设计理念上有明显差异化。例如,日本烟草公 司的 Pro 系列采用低温加热(约 280 度),符合当地消费者偏好清淡口味、低 雾量卷烟习惯;菲莫国际的 IQOS 则处于中间档次;而英美烟草与思摩尔合作 推出的 GLO Helo 系列则定位高温、大雾量、重口味。这些差异化设计使得各 品牌能够针对不同消费群体提供不同体验,从而避免直接竞争。 日本 HNB 市场渗透率全球领先,202 ...
PM Stock Trades at Premium Value: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 16:25
Key Takeaways Philip Morris trades at a forward P/E of 20.93X, above the industry and sector averages.Smoke-free products made up 41% of revenues in Q2, growing 15.2% y/y, led by IQOS, ZYN and VEEV.Philip Morris targets $2B in cost efficiencies between 2024 and 2026.Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.93X, representing a significant premium compared with the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 15.31X and the broader Consumer ...
Philip Morris' ILUMA Rollout: Will It Power H2 Volume Growth? (Revised)
ZACKS· 2025-08-13 11:31
Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is leveraging its ILUMA platform to sustain momentum in its heated tobacco unit (HTU) through the latter half of 2025, with adjusted in-market sales growth for HTUs reaching 11.4% in Q2 2025 [1][7] - The company has expanded ILUMA into over 30 markets, significantly enhancing market share and user adoption, particularly in Europe and Japan [2][3] Sales and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, HTU sales increased by 11.4%, with Europe growing by 9.1% and Japan by 7.8%, attributed to the rollout of ILUMA i and new consumable products [1][7] - ILUMA's expansion has led to an increase in IQOS HTU market share by 1.2 percentage points to 10.9% in Europe, with over 20% share in key cities across 12 markets [2][7] Future Growth Projections - PMI anticipates smoke-free product volume growth of 12-14% in 2025, with the ILUMA upgrade cycle expected to support continued double-digit HTU growth [3] - The second half of 2025 will focus on maintaining rollout momentum while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges [3] Competitive Landscape - Turning Point Brands reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, reaching $30.1 million, and raised its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million, emphasizing flavor innovation and retail presence [4] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have decreased by 5.7% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's growth of 1.3% [5] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PM is 21.17X, higher than the industry average of 15.36X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 4 cents and 7 cents, respectively, to $7.49 and $8.39 [9]
从全球视角看新型烟草发展趋势;跨行业比较,看个护行业投资框架;潮玩产业链研究框架
2025-08-07 15:03
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss trends in the **new tobacco industry**, **personal care industry**, and **trendy toy industry** [1][2][10][18]. New Tobacco Industry - The new tobacco industry is entering a rapid development phase, with major international players like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Japan Tobacco accelerating their efforts [10][11]. - New tobacco products are expected to account for over 40% of total revenue by 2025, driven by the decline of traditional tobacco consumption [12]. - The average selling price of new tobacco products is 2.3 times that of traditional cigarettes, contributing to revenue growth and reducing regulatory risks [12]. - Key products in the new tobacco sector include heated non-combustible products and oral tobacco, which are better suited for large companies due to lower regulatory pressures [14][15]. Personal Care Industry - Emerging brands are achieving rapid growth through multi-channel competition, product innovation, and adapting to market changes, exemplified by Baiya Co. in the sanitary napkin and toothpaste sectors [1][4]. - Baiya Co. launched a probiotic product that captured significant market share, with health-oriented products contributing over 60% of its revenue by Q1 2025 [1][4]. - The toothpaste market is favorable for companies like Dengkang, which is positioned to gain market share as foreign brands decline [7]. - Haoyue's acquisition of the Jieting brand has strengthened its product portfolio and market position in the sanitary napkin category [8]. Trendy Toy Industry - The trendy toy industry is shifting from material consumption to emotional consumption, with IP (intellectual property) and AI (artificial intelligence) as key development directions [2][20]. - Companies like Pop Mart have successfully expanded their product lines and achieved significant international sales growth, with overseas revenue expected to match domestic revenue by 2025 [25]. - The market for IP toys is characterized by emotional, social, and collectible values, which enhance consumer engagement and drive demand [21][22]. - The industry is seeing a rise in companies that excel in both IP creation and monetization, which is crucial for sustaining growth [28]. Additional Insights - The personal care industry is experiencing a transformation with increased consumer recognition of domestic brands, leading to new investment opportunities [2]. - The competitive landscape in the personal care sector is evolving, with companies focusing on innovative product offerings and effective channel strategies to capture market share [4][6]. - Regulatory risks in the new tobacco sector may negatively impact domestic white-label and private enterprises, while compliance products from established tobacco companies may benefit from stricter regulations [14]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and trends from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics within the new tobacco, personal care, and trendy toy industries.
MO Expands Smoke-Free Portfolio: Can It Offset Combustible Declines?
ZACKS· 2025-08-06 16:31
Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is experiencing significant growth in its smoke-free product segment, particularly with its oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, which saw a 26.5% increase in shipments year over year, reaching 52.1 million cans, and capturing an 8.7% share of the total oral tobacco category [1][7] - The nicotine pouch segment now constitutes over half of the oral tobacco category, indicating a shift in consumer preferences away from traditional moist smokeless tobacco [1] - Altria's oral tobacco segment reported a 10.9% increase in adjusted operating income, with margins expanding to 68.7%, despite a 10.2% decline in domestic cigarette shipments [2][3][7] Market Competition - Philip Morris International is aggressively expanding its smoke-free portfolio, with a 17.3% organic growth in smoke-free net revenues, driven by a 26% increase in ZYN U.S. offtake and a 65% rise in international pouch volumes [4] - Turning Point Brands is also making strides in the modern oral nicotine market, with white pouch sales growing nearly 10 times year over year, prompting an increase in full-year guidance to $80-$95 million [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares have increased by 3.8% over the past month, contrasting with a 1.6% decline in the industry [6] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4X, which is lower than the industry's average of 14.9X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has risen by 2 cents each, now projected at $5.39 and $5.55 respectively [10]
轻工制造行业周报:海外烟草龙头2025H1财报梳理:新型烟草增速向好-20250804
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-04 09:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - Recent financial reports from major overseas tobacco companies for H1 2025 show overall stable performance, with new tobacco products continuing to drive growth. British American Tobacco, Philip Morris International, and Japan Tobacco have all raised their annual forecasts [18]. Summary by Relevant Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - For H1 2025, BAT reported revenues of £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, with new tobacco products accounting for 13.7% of total revenue [2][19]. - The revenue from heated tobacco products was £440 million, showing a slight increase of 0.8%, while the revenue from new oral tobacco products surged by 38.1% to £470 million [20][21]. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's Q2 2025 net revenue reached $10.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with smoke-free tobacco products making up 41.6% of total revenue [3][28]. - The global shipment of heated tobacco units was 38.8 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, with IQOS market share in Japan increasing to 31.7% [29]. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco reported Q2 2025 revenues of ¥907.6 billion, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, with heated tobacco product shipments rising by 31.2% [4][38]. - The company has adjusted its annual revenue growth forecast to 8.4% and operating profit growth to 14.6% [38]. Altria - Altria's Q2 2025 revenue was $6.1 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year, with oral tobacco product revenue increasing by 5.9% [5][12]. Market Overview - The light industry sector experienced a relative return of +0.16% last week, despite a decline of 1.59% in the overall sector [6][9]. - Furniture retail sales in June increased by 28.7% year-on-year, while building materials sales saw a decline of 8.9% [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as in the paper and packaging sectors, highlighting Sun Paper and Yutong Technology as key investment opportunities [9][16].
英美烟草、菲莫国际发布2025半年报:减害产品与口含烟成为核心增长引擎
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 14:03
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that reduced-harm products and oral tobacco have become the core growth engines for British American Tobacco (BAT) and Philip Morris International (PMI) [1][3] - BAT's revenue for the first half of 2025 was £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, but a 1.8% increase when excluding currency effects, primarily driven by recovery in the US market [1] - PMI reported a revenue of $19.4 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3] Summary by Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT's operating profit for the first half of 2025 was £5.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with an operating margin rising by 7.5 percentage points to 42.0% [1] - The diluted EPS for BAT was £2.036, up 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The number of consumers of BAT's reduced-harm products reached 30.5 million, an increase of 1.4 million year-on-year [2] - Modern oral products generated £470 million in revenue, a 38.1% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 42.2% [2] Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's gross profit for the first half of 2025 was $13.1 billion, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [3] - The adjusted diluted EPS for PMI was $3.6, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [3] - PMI's total shipment volume for the first half of 2025 was 387.9 billion units, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [4] - Reduced-harm product shipments reached 87.9 billion units, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with 41.5 million consumers globally, an increase of 5 million [4] Regional Performance - In Japan, IQOS covered over 10 million legal-age consumers, with a shipment volume of 13.9 billion units in Q2 2025, a 3.2% increase year-on-year [6] - In the EU, IQOS shipments reached 6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 13.21% increase year-on-year [6] - In South Korea, IQOS shipments were 1.6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 12.8% increase year-on-year [6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the vaping supply chain, including companies like Smoore International and Yihua Healthcare, as well as the tobacco supply chain with companies like China Tobacco Hong Kong and China Boton [7]
Can ZYN and IQOS Sustain Philip Morris' Smoke-Free Surge?
ZACKS· 2025-07-31 16:21
Key Takeaways PM's smoke-free business made up 41% of net revenues and more than 42% of gross profit in Q2 2025.IQOS saw 11.4% global sales growth, with notable market share gains in Japan and Europe.ZYN posted 26% U.S. growth in Q2 and 43% global shipment growth, led by strong U.S. demand.Philip Morris International’s (PM) smoke-free business is gaining scale, and the performance of its flagship products, IQOS and ZYN, is central to this trajectory. In the second quarter of 2025, the company’s smoke-free b ...