Key Takeaways MO's cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2% in Q3, pushing it to accelerate the smoke-free strategy.MO launched on! PLUS, a premium nicotine pouch aimed at smokeless tobacco users and rival pouch customers.Altria submitted FDA applications for the Ploom heated tobacco system through its Horizon joint venture.Altria Group, Inc. ((MO) is reshaping the growth strategy as cigarette demand weakens, raising questions about whether its smoke-free push can stabilize growth over time. In the third quarte ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月30日 攻守兼备，布局基本面拐点 ——轻工制造2026年度策略 分析师：徐 偲 SAC执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 SAC执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com 目录 1 造纸：拐点将至，格局为首要逻辑 2 包装：行业整合加速，二片罐盈利有望改善 3 烟草：长牛赛道，逐步配置 4 家居：美国开启降息，关注家居出口标的 ➢ 风险提示：全球宏观经济形势变化风险，全球需求变化的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险，原材料价格波动的风险，汇 率波动的风险。 2 1.1造纸行业正处于被动去库存阶段 ➢ 库存周期本质上是供需平衡变化的结果，从而反映行业的市场环境和景气度。库存周期可以根据量价关系划分为四个阶 段：被动补库存（价格先于库存下跌）→主动去库存（库存和价格同时下降）→被动去库存（价格先于库存上升）→主 动补库存（库存和价格同时上升）。按照库存周期的演绎逻辑，我们判断25Q3造纸行业已进入被动去库存阶段，主要特 征为，经济开启回暖，需求明显复苏，但生产端存在一定滞后，原材料库存持平或者 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，参照海外烟草行业发展经验，新型烟草发展已是大势所趋， 后续若国内HNB开启，有望支撑中烟体系进一步延续高质量发展，建议积极关注目前在加热烟草领域 已有技术&产品储备的供应链企业，后续有望充分享受全球HNB发展大势。 国金证券主要观点如下： 国际烟草巨头全面转向新型烟草，HNB已是头部烟草企业重要增长驱动力 全球范围内卷烟市场萎缩已是不可逆转的趋势，全球吸烟率从2005年的30.75%持续下降至2022年的 21.74%，卷烟市场规模自2018年的53908亿支缓慢下滑至2024年的51561亿支，CAGR为-0.74%。有鉴于 此，包括菲莫国际等在内的国际烟草巨头均将新型烟草作为保障公司长期发展的核心动力，在雾化电子 烟、加热烟草和口含烟等领域加速布局。如菲莫国际计划到2030年营收的三分之二以上将来自新型烟 草，英美烟草计划在2035年新型烟草的收入占比达到50%，各烟草巨头加速从传统烟草巨头向新型烟草 的转型进程。其中HNB是新型烟草的核心品类，2024年菲莫的无烟产品（以HNB产品IQOS为主）营收 占比为39%，加热烟草已成为推动公司业绩增长的核心引擎。 参照日 ...

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are major players in the global tobacco industry, each with unique geographic exposure and strategic focuses [1][2] - Altria has a market capitalization of approximately $98.5 billion, primarily focused on the U.S. market, while Philip Morris has a larger market cap of about $248.6 billion, reflecting its international presence and innovation in reduced-risk products [1][2] Altria's Position - Altria maintains a strong position in the U.S. tobacco market, with a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin in Q3 2025, indicating strong pricing power despite declining cigarette volumes [3][6] - The company is investing in smoke-free products, with on! nicotine pouch shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date, and continues to innovate with products like on! PLUS and Horizon's Ploom [4][8] - Altria increased its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share in August 2025, marking its 60th dividend increase in 56 years, and expanded its share-repurchase authorization to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes declined by 8.2% in Q3, and Marlboro's market share decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris' Growth - Philip Morris is increasingly focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with shipments growing by 16.6% year-over-year [7][9] - Key smoke-free brands like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV are driving revenue growth, with IQOS leading in heated tobacco globally [9] - Operational discipline and cost controls have supported margin expansion and earnings growth, while the combustible segment remains under pressure with a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes [10][11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of approximately 6.3% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, remaining unchanged at $5.44 and $5.56 respectively [12] - For Philip Morris, the consensus estimate implies year-over-year growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.3% for 2026, with estimates slightly down to $7.50 and $8.35 [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Altria's shares have increased by 17.4%, while Philip Morris has seen a stronger gain of 33.9% [15] - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.54, below its one-year median of 10.80, while Philip Morris' forward P/E ratio stands at 19.17, also below its median of 20.59 [16] Investment Appeal - Philip Morris offers stronger global growth and leadership in reduced-risk products, while Altria provides a compelling value proposition with higher income visibility and resilient margins [17] - Altria is viewed as a better option for income-focused investors seeking stability and consistent returns amid the industry's transition to smoke-free products [17]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the daily routine and leadership philosophy of Stacey Kennedy, the US CEO of Philip Morris International (PMI), highlighting her extensive experience within the company and her focus on innovation and strategic planning. Group 1: Leadership and Experience - Stacey Kennedy has been with PMI since 1995, holding various positions before becoming the US CEO in January 2023 [1][2] - She has spent half of her career in the US and half internationally, indicating a broad understanding of global markets [3] Group 2: Daily Routine - Kennedy starts her day early, focusing on personal well-being to enhance her leadership effectiveness [4][5] - Her mornings are filled with meetings and strategic planning, emphasizing the importance of innovation and urgency in the business [7][8] - The office environment is designed to foster collaboration, featuring open spaces and coffee corners [7] Group 3: Strategic Focus - PMI is actively involved in regulatory matters, working with policymakers to ensure adult smokers have access to better alternatives [8] - The company is expanding its manufacturing capabilities with a flagship factory in Owensboro, Kentucky, and a new factory in Aurora, Colorado [8] Group 4: Meeting Management - Kennedy's calendar is typically scheduled a year in advance, with fixed global management team and board meetings [9] - The company employs P.O.D.D. meetings to address issues and seize opportunities effectively [10] Group 5: Personal Insights - Kennedy emphasizes the importance of gratitude practices to maintain a positive perspective amidst a demanding job [16] - She maintains a Mediterranean-style diet and prioritizes family time, reflecting a balance between work and personal life [17][18]

Summary of Philip Morris International (PMI) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) - **Industry**: Tobacco - **Focus**: Transition to reduced-risk, smoke-free products, with over 40% of sales coming from these products in more than 100 markets globally [1][4][6] Key Points and Arguments Smoke-Free Product Strategy - PMI has established a presence in over 100 markets, with more than one smoke-free product proposition in over 30 markets [4] - The company believes that offering multiple smoke-free platforms (heat-not-burn, pouches, e-vapor) is essential to cater to different smoker preferences and encourage quitting [4][5] - The decline in cigarette sales accelerates when smoke-free products are available, with a projected global growth rate of around 10% for smoke-free products [6][7] Market Dynamics - PMI's smoke-free product growth is expected to outpace the industry average, with estimates of 10-12% growth for PMI's smoke-free products [7][8] - There are significant opportunities in markets with high cigarette sales, such as India, Vietnam, and Turkey, which are not yet fully open to smoke-free products [9] ZYN Performance - ZYN, a nicotine pouch product, accounts for 6-7% of PMI's revenue and is a key growth driver [10] - A $100 million investment was made to boost ZYN's market presence, which faced supply constraints but is expected to resolve quickly [11][12] - ZYN has captured over 50% of the growth in the nicotine pouch category, which is growing at approximately 30% [13][18] Regulatory Environment - The FDA is expected to expedite the review of pending PMTAs (Premarket Tobacco Product Applications), which could enhance ZYN's product lineup [19][24] - There is a positive shift in regulatory conversations around nicotine, moving away from outdated perceptions [21][22] IQOS and International Growth - IQOS, PMI's heat-not-burn product, continues to grow, with Japan expected to reach a 50% share of smoke-free products [27][28] - Despite regulatory challenges, IQOS has maintained its market share and is expected to continue growing [30][32] - Future innovations in IQOS are anticipated, with a focus on improving user experience and addressing unmet consumer needs [37][39] Financial Outlook - PMI is focused on optimizing its cost structure for IQOS while driving global growth, with expectations of margin improvements as smoke-free products grow faster than combustibles [44][46] - The company aims to return to a leverage target of around 2 times post-acquisition of Swedish Match, with a strong cash flow target of $11.5 billion for the year [52] Organizational Structure - PMI has restructured into two business units (U.S. and International) and three reporting segments to enhance operational efficiency and effectiveness [49][50] Capital Allocation - The company prioritizes organic growth but remains open to potential M&A opportunities to fill capability gaps [52] Additional Insights - The transition to smoke-free products is supported by a large global smoker base, with over a billion smokers worldwide [54] - The evolving conversation around nicotine and smoke-free products is seen as a positive development for the industry [55]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，从海外各烟草巨头2025年发展来看，传统卷烟销量下滑已是 不可逆转的趋势，各烟草巨头均将新型烟草作为保障公司长期发展的核心动力。英法等国已全面禁止一 次性烟，欧洲市场正处于由一次性向换弹式、类换弹式及开放式产品需求转换过程中，合规企业发展机 遇正重新开启。HNB方面，各烟草巨头竞相布局其中，美国市场26年有望正式开启，其全球渗透率有 望进一步提升，将带来广阔扩容空间。凭借Hilo优秀的产品性能且BAT进一步完善营销策略后，Hilo有 望重塑当前HNB竞争格局。 国金证券主要观点如下： 菲莫国际：25Q3新型烟草延续较优增长，期待26年IQOS登陆美国市场 2025Q1-Q3，菲莫国际新型烟草业务实现营收125亿元，同比增长16.0%%，收入占比同比提升3.0pct至 41.3%，其中25Q3新型烟草营收同比+18.9%至44亿美元，延续较优增长态势。 加热烟草方面，25Q1-Q3公司HNB出货量达1167亿支，同比增长12.2%，其中25Q3出货量同比+15.5%至 408.36亿支。截止25Q3，IQOS全球市占率同比提升0.5pct至5.8%，环比25Q2提升0.1 ...

电子烟调研更新与格局分析 20251201 摘要 日本 HNB 市场竞争加剧，IQOS、Glow 和日烟 Plum 竞争激烈，导致 思摩尔与英美烟草 Glow Halo 销量未达预期，市场担忧影响思摩尔 HNB 新品销售及估值，但目前股价接近底部区间。 思摩尔传统雾化电子业务稳健增长，欧洲市场恢复良好，预计增长 20%-30%，受益于新增当地品牌业务。美国市场合规产品恢复性增长， 行业龙头财报显示市场触底反弹。 Glow Halo 新品在日本全国、意大利和波兰上市，进度符合预期但推广 效果略低于预期，因日烟促销策略吸引用户，短期内 Glow Halo 渗透率 提升受阻。 Glow Halo 定位中高端，不依赖打折补贴，通过买烟具送烟弹培养用户 习惯。长期来看，凭借加热时间、智能设计和抽吸体验优势，有望提升 渗透率和市场份额。 预计 2025 年 Glow Halo 在日本销量约 200 万件，烟弹销量为数十亿 支。调整营销策略后，在意大利等欧洲国家有望取得更好表现，美国 FDA 审批进展影响上市时间。 Q&A 预计 2026 年思摩尔传统业务利润约为 12 亿至 13 亿元人民币，加上 HNB 业 务贡献的大 ...

Core Insights - Companies with a strong history of dividend payments and increases are attractive to income-focused investors, with Philip Morris, Rexford Industrial Realty, and Agree Realty being notable examples [1] Philip Morris - Philip Morris International Inc. has raised its dividends for 17 consecutive years, with the latest increase on Sept. 19 raising the quarterly payout from $1.35 to $1.47 per share, resulting in an annual figure of $5.88 per share [3] - The current dividend yield for Philip Morris is 3.77% [3] - The company's annual revenue as of Sept. 30 is $39.99 billion, with Q3 2025 revenues reported at $10.85 billion and EPS of $2.24, both exceeding consensus estimates [3] Rexford Industrial Realty - Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. has increased its dividends for 12 consecutive years, with a recent 3% increase on Feb. 5 to $0.43 per share, equating to an annual figure of $1.72 per share [5] - The company maintained its dividend payout at the same level in the latest announcement on Oct. 13, with a current dividend yield of 4.21% [5] - The annual revenue as of Sept. 30 is $997.93 million, with Q3 2025 revenues of $246.76 million, which missed the consensus estimate of $249.71 million, while EPS of $0.60 exceeded the consensus of $0.42 [6] Agree Realty - Agree Realty Corp. is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring and developing properties leased to leading omnichannel retail tenants [7]