菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 HNB 全球份额维持高位，日本竞争加剧。公司全年 HNB 销量达 1551 亿 支（同比+11.0%），全球市占率约 76%（倒算全球行业规模 25 年超 200 ...

耐用消费产业行业研究 2026 年 02 月 08 日 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003 ） zhaozhongping ＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：唐执敬（执业 S1130525020002 ） tangzhijing＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：谢俪丹 xielidan＠gjzq.com.cn 国际烟草巨头财报频出，泡泡年会更新，苹果官宣 AI 硬件布局 投资逻辑 潮玩：布鲁可登录日本市场、海外版图持续扩张，与 Takara Tomy 合作深入有望进一步推动其 IP 拓展进程。布鲁可 变形金刚星辰版前三弹将率先登岛，此次由日本《变形金刚》IP 官方持有方 Takara Tomy（多美）引入。2 月 5 日泡 泡玛特与中科宇航联名设计的太空主题 SPACE MOLLY 公仔完成太空首秀；2 月 6 日公司举办年会，会上宣布 2025 全 年全品类销售量超 4 亿，Labubu 单品销售量超 1 亿，全球注册会员超 1 亿人，门店数量超 700 家。 新型烟草：菲莫国际业绩会彰显 HNB 赛道长期增长动力，未来有望二次加速， ...

CFO Emmanuel Babeau said organic net revenue increased 6.5% in 2025, or 7.9% excluding what he described as a “technical Indonesia impact.” Organic operating income rose 10.6% with 140 basis points of organic margin expansion. In dollar terms, adjusted operating income grew 11.8% to $16.4 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 14.2% at constant currency and 15% in dollar terms to $7.54. Babeau noted EPS landed at the high end of the company’s prior guidance range despite a lower-than-expected currency tailw ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. reported fourth-quarter results that met analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.70 and revenue of $10.4 billion, slightly above the expected $10.39 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved adjusted diluted EPS of $7.54 for the full year 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.8%, or 14.2% on a currency-neutral basis [2] - Revenue from smoke-free products constituted 41.5% of total net revenues and nearly 43% of total gross profit, marking increases of 2.8 and 3.2 percentage points compared to full-year 2024 [3] Group 2: Business Growth and Strategy - Smoke-free shipment volumes increased by 8.5% in the quarter, while traditional cigarette volumes saw a decline of 2.2% [2] - Philip Morris guided for fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $8.38 to $8.53, surpassing the analyst consensus of $8.33 [4] - The company set new growth targets for 2026–2028, aiming for organic net revenue growth of 6% to 8%, organic operating income growth of 8% to 10%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11%, excluding currency effects [4]

The beginning of this year has served as a stark reminder of how quickly investor sentiment can shift. In early 2026, we've witnessed a notable rotation into consumer staples stocks, a sector long valued for its defensive qualities. While technology shares have faced pressure amid high valuations and questions around AI momentum sustainability, staples have emerged as a relative haven.The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) , a benchmark ETF, has risen approximately 13% year-to-date through early ...

We accomplished this through strong pricing, portfolio resilience, and disciplined execution, with Marlborough reaching a historic high share. Managing this business responsibly enables us to invest boldly in better alternatives and sustain our smoke-free momentum. Together, these factors enabled us to deliver 15% adjusted diluted EPS growth in dollar terms, the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021. This reflects currency-neutral growth of 14% well above our expectations ...

Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsEmmanuel Babeau - CFOEric Serotta - Executive Director for US Beverages, Tobacco, and Household ProductsJacek Olczak - Group CEOJames Bushnell - VP of Investor Relations and Financial CommunicationConference Call ParticipantsBonnie Herzog - Managing Director and Veteran AnalystDamian McNeela - Director and Senior Analyst of Consumer StaplesFaham Baig - Global Tobacco Analyst and Executive DirectorGe ...

Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsEmmanuel Babeau - CFOJacek Olczak - Group CEOJames Bushnell - VP of Investor Relations and Financial CommunicationConference Call ParticipantsGerald Pascarelli - Senior Analyst of Beverages, Tobacco, and CannabisMatt Smith - Senior Analyst of Consumer StaplesOperatorday and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International, Inc., 2025 fourth quarter results conference call. At th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, total net revenues exceeded $40 billion, with 41.5% or nearly $17 billion generated from smoke-free products [8][11] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 15% in dollar terms, marking the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021 [5][11] - Organic top-line growth was +6.5%, with adjusted operating income growth at +10.6%, reflecting +140 basis points of organic margin expansion [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smoke-free product volumes grew by 12.8%, with organic smoke-free gross profit growth of 18.7% [3][12] - IQOS shipments grew by approximately 11%, with a notable acceleration in the fourth quarter [3][15] - ZYN shipments in the U.S. increased by 37%, contributing significantly to smoke-free product growth [5][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international business generated the majority of total PMI organic net revenue growth, with smoke-free products leading the way [5][19] - In Japan, the heat-not-burn category surpassed 50% of total industry volumes, driven by IQOS [25][26] - The U.S. market for nicotine pouches saw ZYN capturing around 50% of category growth, with a volume share of 61.5% [30][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a multi-category strategy, expanding its smoke-free product offerings and geographic reach [4][9] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation and digitalization to support long-term growth [9][43] - The company targets a leverage ratio of close to 2x by the end of 2026, indicating a focus on financial flexibility and shareholder returns [7][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong growth despite transitory headwinds, with a forecast of 5%-7% organic net revenue growth for 2026 [36][37] - The company anticipates continued strong cash generation, with operating cash flow projected at around $13.5 billion [38][43] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating regulatory environments and enhancing brand equity for future growth [32][33] Other Important Information - The company achieved a historic high share for Marlboro, reaching 11% of the international category, excluding China [34][5] - The number of legal-age consumers of smoke-free products reached an estimated 43.5 million, reflecting broad-based growth across categories [20][19] - The company is committed to delivering superior shareholder value, with a target dividend payout ratio of around 75% of adjusted diluted EPS [44][45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the reacceleration in smoke-free volume growth compared to the 2026 growth guidance? - Management indicated that the acceleration is expected due to tax changes in Japan and competitive dynamics in the U.S. market [49][50] Question: How are you thinking in terms of IQOS, HTU shipments, and IMS for 2026? - Management noted that while Japan faces challenges, other markets like Italy and Germany are showing strong growth, contributing positively to IQOS's outlook [58][62] Question: What are the key growth drivers for the upcoming year? - Management emphasized the importance of ZYN and IQOS, along with ongoing investments in marketing and innovation, as key drivers for growth [72][75]

2025 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results February 6, 2026 Introduction • A glossary of terms as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated February 6, 2026 and on our Investor Relations website with additional non- GAAP reconciliations available at the end of this presentation 2 Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements ...