Core Insights - IBM's valuation is significantly lower compared to large tech companies, which reassures analysts [1] - The investment rationale for IBM is not based on valuation expansion but rather on providing a dividend-paying, defensive buffer while analysts focus on SaaS and large tech stocks [1] - Analysts have noted that IBM has delivered actual performance to support its AI business commitments, showing strong execution in AI, hybrid cloud, and IBM Z infrastructure [1] Financial Performance - The core software business growth remains in double digits but is slightly below the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] - Red Hat's business continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed from 16%-17% to approximately 14% [4] - Consulting business revenue has stabilized, shifting from a year-over-year decline of 2% to a growth of 2% [5] - Infrastructure support business revenue is flat or slightly up, contributing stability to total revenue and EBITDA, but without significant acceleration in trends [6] - The transaction processing business has seen a substantial decline, dropping from approximately 10% year-over-year growth to -2% [6] - Automation business has made significant progress, with growth accelerating from about 15% to approximately 24% [6] - Data and AI business growth has also increased moderately from 4%-5% in Q4 2024 to 8% currently [6] - The hybrid infrastructure business has rebounded significantly, with IBM Z business reversing from a 20% year-over-year decline to a 61% growth in Q3 2025 [6][8] Market Sentiment - The rebound in IBM Z business reflects the end of a large mainframe upgrade cycle, indicating that such high growth rates may not be sustainable [8] - The consulting business has stabilized due to specific client project wins and digital transformation spending, but performance may fluctuate with macroeconomic changes [8] - The narratives around automation and AI are seen as structural growth trends, reflecting ongoing digital transformation and early AI adoption, although their absolute contribution to overall software revenue remains limited [8] - AI business orders increased from $5 billion in Q4 2024 to $9.5 billion in Q3 2025, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [8] Valuation and Outlook - Since April, IBM's valuation (measured by enterprise value to forward EBITDA ratio) has increased by 20%-25%, from approximately 14.5x to 17.5x [10] - The 21% year-over-year EBITDA growth in Q3 2025 is notable compared to 7%-8% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend [9] - However, the improvement in EBITDA may largely stem from non-structural factors, such as the IBM Z mainframe cycle, rather than sustained acceleration in core business [13] - The overall revenue growth guidance for 2025 exceeds 5%, suggesting a slowdown in growth compared to earlier quarters [9] - IBM's current investment logic remains consistent with April's assessment, indicating reasonable valuation and potential for AI business uplift, but the best-case scenario for EBITDA improvement seems to be priced in [15]