但普通人看到第三段了，基本已经晕倒了，而今天我想聊的是： 老冯的文章为什么会被删 (1)老冯的标题太绝对化了，《阿里云的标杆客户小红书下云》这个标题里：【标杆客户】【下云】【点名阿里云】对云厂商 来说， 这是商业级别的表述，一旦被大量转发，很容易被解读成："核心客户跑路了"。 12月25日晚上，阿里云官方账号突然下场辟谣，点名一篇自媒体文章：《阿里云的标杆客户小红书下云》，并明确表示：这是谣言。 我当时第一反应是：一个企业号，专门给一个自媒体辟谣，这事肯定不小。 我本来想去看看原文呢，不过很遗憾，原文已经被投诉删除了，你看下图，这是他今天写的第二篇文章《小红书究竟有没有下云?》特点 也很明显：逻辑非常严谨、引用了大量会议、术语、全程站在技术视角。 (2)整篇文章说的有点"绝对化"，连标题都是"绝对化"文字。在商业领域非常敏感，"绝对化表述"是高风险行为，轻则删文 章，如果把这思路用到产品设计，大概率违反广告法，罚款20万，松松就吃过这方面的亏。 (3)文章里说"小红书下云，这步棋走的漂亮，非常清醒"，这就 有所暗指，有含沙射影的意思 。还好是云计算圈，如果是汽 车圈，律师函第二天都过来了。 (4)虽然老冯不靠 ...

混合云连接在金融行业正迅速普及，本文将探讨用于网络容量与数据分发的混合式实时基础架构的演进路 径及关键考量因素。我们还将探讨如何通过将传统的物理数据接入方式与云端服务相结合，帮助机构实现 更高水平的可扩展性、系统韧性和灵活性。此外，本文还将强调混合连接如何在无需购买新硬件或更新物 理基础设施的情况下，更快速地扩展网络容量。 实时市场示例 在近期的市场波动加剧、服务中断以及安全事件频发的背景下，我们自身的混合架构依然保持韧性，相比 之前的传统架构，混合架构能够更快地扩容和调整。下图展示了慧甚FactSet用于实时数据采集与分发的 架构示意。 点击图片查看大图 由于在传统物理架构中，扩展网络容量通常需要企业购买新硬件、配置路由器/交换机、协商新的ISP合 同，并对基础设施进行物理更新，因此整个过程可能需要数周（在某些情况下甚至长达数月）。作为替代 方案，采用诸如Amazon AWS Direct Connect和TNS Xpress网络等服务的混合架构，使企业能够转向更 加动态的运营模式。企业可以根据自身需求以及市场环境灵活调整带宽、连接方式和网络分段。 另一个重要因素在于，在传统物理架构下，企业通常需要提前预测 ...

Core Insights - IBM has acquired Confluent for $11 billion in cash, marking a strategic shift away from the industry's focus on GPUs and large model training [1][2] - This acquisition is seen as a natural progression given the five-year strategic partnership between IBM and Confluent, with IBM promoting Confluent as part of its IBM Cloud Pak [1][2] - The acquisition price represents a 30% premium over Confluent's previous stock price, with funding sourced from IBM's cash reserves [1] Financial Overview - IBM's total expenditure on open-source software companies has now exceeded $50 billion, including previous acquisitions of Red Hat for $34 billion and HashiCorp for $6.4 billion [2] - Confluent has over 6,000 customers, providing IBM an opportunity to increase its product penetration among existing clients [2] Market Position and Risks - Confluent is a key player in the Kafka ecosystem, contributing significantly to its development, which raises concerns about the future of Kafka under IBM's ownership [3][5] - The acquisition may lead to cultural clashes between Confluent's fast-paced engineering culture and IBM's traditional corporate structure, potentially impacting innovation and talent retention [5][6] - There are fears that IBM may prioritize proprietary technology over open-source development, which could stifle the growth of the open-source Kafka version [5][6] Strategic Implications - The acquisition is viewed as a move to enhance IBM's capabilities in real-time data processing, with Confluent's technologies being integral to this strategy [8][11] - IBM aims to build a comprehensive data flow capability chain, integrating data ingestion (Kafka), data stream computation (Flink), and enterprise applications [11][12] - The acquisition aligns with IBM's broader strategy to address the challenges of enterprise AI by ensuring efficient internal data flow, moving beyond mere computational power [11][12]

Core Insights - IBM's valuation is significantly lower compared to large tech companies, which reassures analysts [1] - The investment rationale for IBM is not based on valuation expansion but rather on providing a dividend-paying, defensive buffer while analysts focus on SaaS and large tech stocks [1] - Analysts have noted that IBM has delivered actual performance to support its AI business commitments, showing strong execution in AI, hybrid cloud, and IBM Z infrastructure [1] Financial Performance - The core software business growth remains in double digits but is slightly below the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] - Red Hat's business continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed from 16%-17% to approximately 14% [4] - Consulting business revenue has stabilized, shifting from a year-over-year decline of 2% to a growth of 2% [5] - Infrastructure support business revenue is flat or slightly up, contributing stability to total revenue and EBITDA, but without significant acceleration in trends [6] - The transaction processing business has seen a substantial decline, dropping from approximately 10% year-over-year growth to -2% [6] - Automation business has made significant progress, with growth accelerating from about 15% to approximately 24% [6] - Data and AI business growth has also increased moderately from 4%-5% in Q4 2024 to 8% currently [6] - The hybrid infrastructure business has rebounded significantly, with IBM Z business reversing from a 20% year-over-year decline to a 61% growth in Q3 2025 [6][8] Market Sentiment - The rebound in IBM Z business reflects the end of a large mainframe upgrade cycle, indicating that such high growth rates may not be sustainable [8] - The consulting business has stabilized due to specific client project wins and digital transformation spending, but performance may fluctuate with macroeconomic changes [8] - The narratives around automation and AI are seen as structural growth trends, reflecting ongoing digital transformation and early AI adoption, although their absolute contribution to overall software revenue remains limited [8] - AI business orders increased from $5 billion in Q4 2024 to $9.5 billion in Q3 2025, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [8] Valuation and Outlook - Since April, IBM's valuation (measured by enterprise value to forward EBITDA ratio) has increased by 20%-25%, from approximately 14.5x to 17.5x [10] - The 21% year-over-year EBITDA growth in Q3 2025 is notable compared to 7%-8% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend [9] - However, the improvement in EBITDA may largely stem from non-structural factors, such as the IBM Z mainframe cycle, rather than sustained acceleration in core business [13] - The overall revenue growth guidance for 2025 exceeds 5%, suggesting a slowdown in growth compared to earlier quarters [9] - IBM's current investment logic remains consistent with April's assessment, indicating reasonable valuation and potential for AI business uplift, but the best-case scenario for EBITDA improvement seems to be priced in [15]

Core Viewpoint - IBM's valuation is significantly lower compared to large tech companies, which reassures analysts. The company remains a meaningful allocation in the overall IT portfolio, not for valuation expansion, but as a defensive buffer that provides dividends while analysts position themselves in SaaS and large tech stocks [1]. Financial Performance - IBM has demonstrated strong execution in its AI, hybrid cloud, and IBM Z infrastructure business lines, achieving stable growth in revenue, profit margins, and free cash flow. However, since April, the stock has risen significantly, leading analysts to question whether there are any new changes not yet priced in [2]. - The core software business growth is maintaining a double-digit level, albeit slightly below the fourth quarter of 2024 [3]. - The Red Hat business continues to grow, but the growth rate has slightly slowed from 16%-17% to approximately 14% [4]. - Consulting business revenue has stabilized, shifting from a year-over-year decline of 2% to a growth of 2% [6]. - Infrastructure support business revenue is flat or slightly increased, contributing stability to total revenue and EBITDA, but without significant acceleration in trends [7]. Business Segments - The automation business has made significant progress, with growth accelerating from about 15% to approximately 24%, indicating potential for substantial margin improvement [7]. - Data and AI business growth has also increased moderately, from 4%-5% in Q4 2024 to 8% currently [7]. - The hybrid infrastructure business has rebounded significantly, with IBM Z business reversing from a 20% year-over-year decline to a 61% growth in Q3 2025 [7]. - The narrative around automation, AI, and IBM Z reflects a bullish sentiment in the market, with most optimistic expectations being reasonable [7]. Revenue and EBITDA Insights - The overall revenue growth guidance for 2025 exceeds 5%, suggesting a year-over-year growth of about 3% in Q4, which is a slowdown compared to the nearly double-digit growth in the first two quarters [9]. - EBITDA growth is positive, with a year-over-year increase of approximately 21% in Q3 2025, compared to 7%-8% in Q3 2024 [10]. - Since April, IBM's valuation has increased by 20%-25%, from about 14.5 times to approximately 17.5 times forward EBITDA [11]. Investment Logic - The current investment logic for IBM remains consistent with that of April, indicating a reasonable valuation. The potential uplift from AI business is promising, but the best-case scenario for EBITDA improvement seems to be already priced in [17]. - The AI business focuses on enterprise-level solutions, integrating AI into software, consulting, and infrastructure to drive incremental growth and margin improvement, but faces competition from large tech companies and specialized AI providers [17]. - The dividend yield and defensive attributes of IBM make it a quality stock to hold, but analysts do not recommend adding new funds given the missed opportunity from April to October [17].

Summary of Alibaba's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group - **Date of Earnings Call**: September 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - **Cloud Computing**: Alibaba Cloud benefited from increased AI demand and rising public cloud usage, with hybrid cloud growing over 20% year-on-year [2][3] - **E-commerce**: China's e-commerce GMV grew by 10% year-on-year, with customer management annual revenue rate (CMAR) also increasing by 10% [2][5] Financial Performance - **Total Revenue**: Alibaba Group's total revenue increased by 15% to RMB 247.8 billion, while net income decreased by 53% to RMB 20.6 billion, reflecting significant investments in fast commerce, AI, and cloud infrastructure [2][6] - **E-commerce Revenue**: Revenue from China's e-commerce business rose by 16% to RMB 132.6 billion, with fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) revenue surging by 60% [2][6] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Excluding FMCG losses, adjusted EBITDA for Chinese e-commerce was RMB 10.5 billion, indicating a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth [6][7] Growth Drivers - **AI Products**: AI-related products have shown triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters, indicating strong momentum [2][3] - **Customer Retention**: User retention rates and purchase frequency exceeded expectations, with high-value orders increasing significantly [7][8] Challenges and Investments - **Chip Supply Shortage**: A global chip supply shortage is expected to persist for 2 to 3 years, impacting AI infrastructure development [4][13][14] - **Capital Expenditure**: Alibaba has a capital expenditure plan of $380 billion over three years, but supply chain issues may affect the speed of new server deployment [9][10] Future Outlook - **AI Infrastructure**: Continued investment in AI infrastructure and foundational models is prioritized to ensure resource allocation maximizes ROI [4][10][11] - **Consumer Market Expansion**: Alibaba aims to expand its market share in the consumer sector by integrating various business lines, including fresh produce and local services [14] Additional Insights - **Logistics Optimization**: The fast commerce segment has improved order structure and logistics costs, reducing losses per order by 50% compared to previous months [7][8] - **User Engagement**: Daily active users on the Gaode Map reached 360 million, with significant increases in user engagement [5][6] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Alibaba's earnings call, highlighting the company's performance, growth strategies, and challenges in the current market environment.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - Lenovo Group's revenue for FY25/26Q2 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to $20.45 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.7% [8] - The company's adjusted net profit rose by 26.7% year-on-year to $510 million, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 0.3% [8] - The AI PC segment is accelerating its penetration, with a penetration rate reaching 33% [8] - The mobile phone business achieved record sales, with revenue of $15.11 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.7% and showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported strong order reserves, with revenue of $4.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [8] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved record quarterly revenue of $2.56 billion, marking 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [8] - Future adjusted net profit growth is projected at 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26, FY26/27, and FY27/28, respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections (in million USD): - 2024A: 56,864 - 2025A: 69,077 - 2026E: 77,184 - 2027E: 82,925 - 2028E: 89,545 - Net profit projections (in million USD): - 2024A: 1,011 - 2025A: 1,384 - 2026E: 1,649 - 2027E: 1,891 - 2028E: 2,137 - EPS projections (in CNY): - 2024A: 0.08 - 2025A: 0.11 - 2026E: 0.13 - 2027E: 0.15 - 2028E: 0.17 - PE ratios: - 2025A: 11.89 - 2026E: 9.38 - 2027E: 8.18 - 2028E: 7.23 [5][9]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of $39.282 billion for the fiscal year 2025/26 mid-term, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, and a profit attributable to equity holders of $846 million, up 40% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a record high in revenue for the first half of the year, with adjusted profit attributable to equity holders increasing by 24% year-on-year when accounting for non-cash items [1] - Revenue from artificial intelligence-related products accounted for 29% of total revenue, a 15 percentage point increase from the same period last year, driven by higher sales of AI devices, servers, and services [1] Financial Performance - The smart devices business group saw revenue and operating profit increase by 15% and 13% respectively, benefiting from a rapid rise in AI computer shipments and strong sales of high-end products [1] - The company achieved a record global PC market share of 25.6% in the second quarter [1] - The infrastructure solutions business group experienced a 30% year-on-year revenue growth, with AI infrastructure revenue showing high double-digit growth, supported by cloud and enterprise infrastructure strategies [1] Service Solutions - The solutions services business group reported a 19% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching a historical high, with operating profit rising by 28% [2] - Revenue from operations and project solutions accounted for 58.9% of total revenue, also a record high, driven by favorable trends in digital workplace solutions, AI, and hybrid cloud [2] - In the second quarter, the company achieved a historical revenue high of $20.5 billion, surpassing records set during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 15% year-on-year revenue growth and an adjusted net profit margin expanding to 2.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - IBM is initiating a new round of global layoffs in Q4, affecting thousands of employees, as part of its strategic transformation towards high-growth software and services, reflecting deeper changes in the global tech industry [1][2]. Company Summary - IBM's Q3 revenue reached $16.33 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, but the company faces uneven business development [1]. - The company aims to shift focus towards high-value software, with a projected 10% growth in this segment for 2024, while consulting and infrastructure revenues declined by 2% and 7.6% respectively [1]. - IBM's cloud market share is below 5%, struggling against competitors like Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure, necessitating workforce reductions in related areas [1]. Industry Summary - The global tech industry is undergoing significant layoffs, with nearly 100,000 positions cut this year, as companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta also reduce their workforce [2]. - Factors driving these layoffs include economic slowdown, increased competition, and the impact of AI technology leading to job displacement and business restructuring [2][3]. - The layoffs are seen as a necessary transition pain for the tech industry in the AI era, emphasizing the urgency for companies to adapt through technological change and resource optimization [3].

Core Insights - Microsoft recently faced significant system failures due to the update 2510 (version 11.2510.1002.87) for its hybrid cloud solution Azure Local, causing critical disruptions in industries such as healthcare and finance [1][3] Group 1: System Failures - The update led to frequent blue screen crashes (error code 0x139) in production environments, with systems crashing approximately every 20 hours [1][3] - An IT technician reported that multiple nodes hosting around 100 virtual machines experienced collective outages, interrupting essential services like electronic medical records and telemedicine platforms [3] Group 2: Impact on Healthcare - The failures were described as a "Super-GAU" (super disaster) by technical personnel, posing direct threats to patient safety due to reliance on low-latency data processing [3] - Microsoft confirmed that the root cause of the issue was an erroneous change in update 2510, which led to kernel security check failures [3] Group 3: Microsoft's Response - To temporarily mitigate the issue, Microsoft provided a registry fix command to disable the faulty module and restore system stability [3] - Microsoft subsequently retracted the updates with version numbers 11.2510.1002.87 and 12.2510.1002.88 [3] Group 4: Azure Local Overview - Azure Local is positioned as Microsoft's primary hybrid cloud solution, designed to allow enterprises to run certain Azure services in local data centers, balancing the security of private clouds with the flexibility of public clouds [3]