Group 1 - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) has been downgraded by Morgan Stanley from Overweight to Equal Weight, with a price target reduction from $25 to $12.30, citing underestimated competitive risks from Soda Music [1] - Mizuho also updated its rating on Tencent Music, lowering the price target from $28 to $23 while maintaining an Outperform rating, highlighting uncertainties around competition and AI impacting the shares [2] - The company operates online music entertainment platforms, offering services such as music streaming, live streaming, and online karaoke, with product brands including QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, and WeSing [3] Group 2 - Despite the potential of Tencent Music as an investment, certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

18 March 2026 | 1:26AM HKT Equity Research Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) 4Q25 Earnings Review: Reset of growth expectations in 2026, Competition/AI the key debates; Lower TP, Buy | TME | 12m Price Target: $17.60 | Price: $15.09 | Upside: 16.6% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1698.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$69.00 | Price: HK$57.20 | Upside: 20.6% | TME is sharply lower post 4Q25 results, mainly as the market is concerned with the rising music competition in 2026 and potential AI disruption to music st ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenues grew 16% year-on-year to CNY 8.6 billion, driven by strong growth in online music services [21] - Music subscription revenues increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching CNY 4.6 billion in Q4 2025 [21] - Revenues from non-subscription music services were CNY 2.5 billion, up by 41% year-on-year [21] - For the full year 2025, total revenues were CNY 32.9 billion, up by 16% year-over-year [28] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 60% to CNY 11.4 billion for 2025 [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The music subscription segment saw revenues of CNY 17.7 billion for the full year 2025, up by 16% year-over-year [28] - Revenues from social entertainment services increased by 7% year-over-year [28] - Non-subscription revenue growth was significantly driven by offline performances and artist-related merchandise sales [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The advertising revenue continued its strong growth trajectory, driven by an increase in advertisers and higher ECPM [22] - Offline performances and music festivals broadened user scenarios, effectively attracting more brands and driving growth in sponsorship advertising revenues [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a dual-engine content and platform strategy, emphasizing long-term value creation through disciplined investment and innovation [4] - A comprehensive suite of music services is being developed to create holistic value for music creators and enhance the music industry's long-term growth [5] - The company aims to deepen collaborations with artists and labels while expanding into offline experiences such as live concerts and merchandise [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in leading industry advancement despite competitive pressures, emphasizing the importance of a robust IP portfolio [4] - The company anticipates some short-term pressure on subscription revenue due to intense competition but believes its three-tier membership system will support sustainable growth [37] - AI technology is seen as a tool to improve efficiencies in content creation and enhance user experience [38] Other Important Information - The company plans to discontinue disclosing certain operating metrics quarterly, focusing instead on annual reporting of total paying users [12] - A cash dividend of approximately $368 million is expected to be paid in the second quarter of 2026 [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic growth outlook for 2026 amid AI and competition - Management highlighted solid results in 2025 and the successful implementation of a three-tier membership system, which has led to increased user retention and growth [35] - The company plans to continue expanding non-subscription offerings and deepen collaborations with artists [36] Question: AI impact on the music value chain - Management acknowledged that AI is changing the music industry, with a focus on providing effective creation tools for users while maintaining the importance of original content [40][46] - The company is committed to integrating AI into its platform to enhance user experience and content distribution [55] Question: Financial trends for GP margin and OPEX in 2026 - Management indicated that GP margin will likely remain flat or slightly lower than in 2025, with continued growth in subscription and advertising businesses expected to positively impact GP margin [60][62] - Operating expenses are anticipated to increase due to investments in content and strategic upgrades [74] Question: Update on Ximalaya acquisition and share repurchase program - Management is still in communication with regulators regarding the Ximalaya deal and plans to adhere to the existing share buyback program while responding to market needs [93][95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenues grew 16% year-on-year to CNY 8.6 billion, driven by strong growth in online music services [21] - Music subscription revenues increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching CNY 4.6 billion in Q4 2025 [21] - Revenues from non-subscription music services were CNY 2.5 billion, up by 41% year-on-year [21] - For the full year 2025, total revenues were CNY 32.9 billion, up by 16% year-over-year [28] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 60% to CNY 11.4 billion for 2025 [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved robust growth in music subscription, advertising, offline performance, and artist-related merchandise sales [21] - Revenues from social entertainment services decreased by 5% year-on-year to CNY 1.5 billion in Q4 2025 [25] - The gross margin in Q4 2025 was 44.7%, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong growth in advertising revenue, driven by an increase in advertisers and higher ECPM [22] - Offline performances and music festivals contributed significantly to sponsorship advertising revenues [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a dual-engine content and platform strategy to drive revenue growth and margin expansion [4] - Plans to deepen collaborations with artists and labels, and expand into offline experiences such as live concerts and merchandise [36] - The company aims to leverage AI to enhance user experience and improve efficiencies in content creation and promotion [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate competition and emphasized the importance of IP-driven content [37] - The company anticipates some short-term pressure on subscription revenue due to intense competition but believes in sustainable growth through its membership system [37] - AI is seen as a tool to improve efficiencies and enhance user experience, with ongoing investments in AI technology [38] Other Important Information - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.2 per ordinary share for the year ended December 31, 2025, expected to be paid in Q2 2026 [30] - The company will discontinue disclosing certain operating metrics quarterly, focusing instead on annual reporting of total paying users [12] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the company's strategic growth outlook for 2026 in light of AI and industry competition? - Management highlighted solid results in 2025 and emphasized the importance of a three-tier membership system to drive engagement and growth [35] Question: How will TME embrace AI in the music value chain? - Management acknowledged AI's profound impact on the music industry and emphasized the need to provide effective creation tools for users [40][42] Question: What are the trends regarding GP margin, OPEX, and earnings growth for 2026? - Management indicated that GP margin will remain flat or slightly lower than in 2025, with a focus on optimizing content costs and enhancing revenue from live concerts and merchandise [71][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenues grew 16% year-on-year to CNY 8.6 billion, driven by strong growth in online music services [22] - Music subscription revenues increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching CNY 4.6 billion in Q4 2025 [22] - Revenues from non-subscription music services were CNY 2.5 billion, up by 41% year-on-year [22] - For the full year 2025, total revenues were CNY 32.9 billion, up by 16% year-over-year [29] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 60% to CNY 11.4 billion for 2025 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved robust growth in music subscription, advertising, offline performance, and artist-related merchandise sales [22] - Revenues from social entertainment services decreased by 5% year-on-year to CNY 1.5 billion in Q4 2025 [25] - The gross margin in Q4 2025 was 44.7%, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong growth in advertising revenue, driven by an increase in advertisers and higher ECPM [23] - Offline performances and music festivals contributed significantly to sponsorship advertising revenues [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a dual-engine content and platform strategy to drive revenue growth and margin expansion [3] - There is an emphasis on expanding the music service offerings and enhancing the value of music IPs [4] - The company aims to grow its total addressable market sustainably while protecting and unlocking the full value of music IPs [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in leading industry advancement through disciplined investment and innovation [3] - The competitive landscape is evolving, but the company believes its integrated services provide a distinct competitive advantage [3] - Management anticipates some short-term pressure on subscription revenue due to intense competition but expects healthy and sustainable growth through refined services [38] Other Important Information - The company has built a multi-pronged membership system that includes ad-supported, standard, and SVIP memberships to cater to different user needs [23] - The company plans to continue investing in content and technology while focusing on IP development and self-produced content [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's strategic growth outlook for 2026 in light of AI and industry competition? - Management highlighted solid results in 2025 and emphasized the importance of their three-tier membership system to drive engagement and growth [36] - They acknowledged competition but expressed confidence in their unique content and platform strategy to deliver high-quality growth [38] Question: How will TME embrace AI in the music value chain? - Management noted that AI is changing the music industry and that they are committed to providing effective creation tools for artists [46] - They emphasized the importance of original content while also recognizing the potential of AI-generated content [50] Question: What are the trends regarding GP margin, OPEX, and earnings growth for 2026? - Management indicated that GP margin will remain flat compared to 2025, with potential fluctuations due to changes in revenue mix [62] - They expect total net profit to improve in 2026, with a focus on optimizing content costs and enhancing user experience [76] Question: Any updates on the proposed Ximalaya acquisition deal and share repurchase program? - Management stated they are still in communication with regulators regarding the Ximalaya deal and emphasized their commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [95][96]

Tencent Music Entertainment Group Investor Presentation (NYSE: TME & HKEX: 1698) March 2026 Disclaimer 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 TME online music paying users (mm) TME online music paying ratio High-quality content and services continuously driving paying user loyalty 24.1% 127.4 1 Note: 1. Paying ratio is calculated by dividing the number of online music paying users by online music MAUs. 2. We adopted the nu ...

Company Overview - Tencent Music Entertainment is a major digital music platform in China, operating leading music streaming, online karaoke, and live entertainment platforms such as QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, and WeSing [6][7] - The company generates revenue through music subscriptions, virtual gifts, advertising, live streaming, and music-related merchandise sales, targeting mass-market Chinese consumers seeking digital music and interactive entertainment [7] - As of February 5, the company's revenue (TTM) is $4.57 billion, net income (TTM) is $1.56 billion, and dividend yield is 1.11% [4] Recent Financial Activity - Marathon Asset Management sold 559,011 shares of Tencent Music Entertainment in the fourth quarter, with an estimated transaction value of $11.34 million [1][2] - The quarter-end value of the position decreased by $26.44 million, reflecting both share sales and stock price movement [2] - Following the sale, Tencent Music accounted for 1.55% of Marathon Asset Management's 13F reportable AUM [3] Stock Performance - As of February 5, shares of Tencent Music were priced at $15.93, representing a 37.2% increase over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 25.05 percentage points [3] - In the fourth quarter, shares experienced volatility, falling close to 25%, which may have influenced portfolio management decisions [9] Operational Performance - Tencent Music's revenue rose more than 20% year over year, driven by a growing subscription base and higher average revenue per paying user [10] - Music subscriptions increased at a double-digit pace, with net income jumping more than 36% year over year, and gross margins improved [10] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with over $5 billion in cash and short-term investments [10] Strategic Positioning - Tencent Music's affiliation with Tencent Holdings provides strategic advantages in distribution, user acquisition, and content sourcing [8] - The recent sale of shares appears to be a portfolio management decision rather than a negative outlook on the business, as Tencent Music remains a significant holding alongside larger positions in companies like Amazon and Alphabet [11]

Group 1: Music Stocks Overview - Seven music stocks to watch include Tencent Music Entertainment Group, NetEase, Warner Music Group, Dolby Laboratories, Madison Square Garden Entertainment, Singing Machine, and Zeta Network Group, as identified by MarketBeat's stock screener tool [2] - Music stocks are categorized as publicly traded companies involved in creating, distributing, monetizing, or supporting recorded and live music, with revenues and valuations influenced by streaming adoption, touring cycles, catalog and licensing income, copyright rules, and consumer listening trends [2] Group 2: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music platforms in China, offering services such as music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming [3] - The company provides QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music for personalized music discovery, along with long-form audio content and WeSing for karaoke [3] Group 3: NetEase (NTES) - NetEase, Inc. engages in online games, music streaming, online intelligent learning services, and internet content services, operating through segments like Games, Youdao, Cloud Music, and others [4] Group 4: Warner Music Group (WMG) - Warner Music Group operates as a music entertainment company with segments in Recorded Music and Music Publishing, focusing on artist development, marketing, and distribution of music [4] Group 5: Dolby Laboratories (DLB) - Dolby Laboratories creates audio and imaging technologies for various entertainment platforms, developing and licensing audio technologies such as AAC & HE-AAC and Dolby Atmos [5] Group 6: Singing Machine (MICS) - Singing Machine Company develops and sells consumer karaoke audio equipment and accessories, offering products under various brands and karaoke music subscription services [7] Group 7: Zeta Network Group (ZNB) - Color Star Technology Co., Ltd. provides online entertainment performances and music education services, operating an online platform that includes various curricula [8]

Core Thesis - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is positioned favorably in the Chinese music streaming market, with a strong market share and a shift towards monetization strategies [2][5] Market Position - TME commands over 70% market share in China through platforms like QQ Music, Kugou, Kuwo, and WeSing [2] - The company has transitioned from a subscriber growth model to a focus on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) uplift and premium subscriptions [2] Revenue and Growth - Online music services contribute over 75% of TME's revenues, with China's paid music penetration at approximately 11%, significantly lower than the West's 52% [2] - TME's revenue grew by 20.6% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with ARPPU increasing to 11.9 and gross margin expanding [5] Competitive Advantages - TME benefits from a fragmented rights landscape, allowing for favorable licensing terms and margin resilience, with a gross margin of 34.1% projected from FY20 to FY24 [3] - The integration with Tencent's ecosystem enhances user engagement and retention, driving consistent ARPU growth of around 10-15% year-over-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The pending acquisition of XML could add 300 million monthly active users (MAUs) and enhance long-form audio offerings, increasing monetization potential [4] - TME's extensive music catalog of approximately 260 million tracks and social engagement strategies help mitigate competitive switching risks [4] Valuation and Outlook - TME's forward P/E ratio suggests a target price of $20.9, indicating an upside of approximately 11.7% [5] - The company's focus on high-margin operations and strategic initiatives in the fan economy and XML integration presents a compelling risk/reward profile in the growing Chinese digital music market [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total revenues grew 21% year-on-year to CNY 8.5 billion, marking the highest revenue growth since Q1 2021 [17] - Online music revenues increased by 27% year-on-year to CNY 7 billion [18] - Music subscription revenues surged 70% year-on-year to CNY 4.5 billion, driven by growth in monthly ARPPU and subscriber base [18] - Monthly ARPPU reached CNY 11.9, up from CNY 10.8 in the same period last year [18] - Net profit increased by 29% to CNY 2.2 billion, with non-IFRS net profit rising by 28% to CNY 2.5 billion [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Offline performances and artist-related merchandise sales experienced triple-digit year-on-year revenue growth [19] - Advertising revenue continued to grow, driven by a diversified product portfolio and innovative ad formats [19] - Social entertainment services and other revenues were CNY 1.5 billion, down by 3% year-on-year [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully hosted multiple concerts both domestically and internationally, including a concert tour for G-Dragon that drew over 150,000 attendees [5][6] - The annual flagship TMEA Concerts featured 35 artists and attracted more than 10,000 attendees [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its dual-engine strategy of platform and content to enhance user experience and drive growth [10][33] - Continued focus on expanding the music service and unlocking new growth opportunities through artist partnerships and innovative offerings [3][8] - The company is committed to enhancing its music ecosystem and exploring new opportunities in offline performances and artist-related merchandise [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering strong results for Q4 2025 and 2026, with expectations of sustained healthy growth in music subscription and non-subscription businesses [25][27] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, but the company believes its extensive music library and user experience will maintain its leadership position [29][30] Other Important Information - The company has won the Music Garden Space Public Welfare Program for seven consecutive years, supporting music education in rural areas [9] - The company is exploring new product combinations and service formats to enhance the fan-based economy [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026? - Management is optimistic about strong performance in both online music services and overall revenue growth for 2025, with a focus on subscription and non-subscription business growth [25][27] Question: How does management view the competitive landscape in the music streaming business? - Management acknowledges competition from peers but believes in their competitive edge through content differentiation and user experience [28][29] Question: What are the growth drivers for subscription services in 2026? - Growth will be driven by high-quality content, content privileges, and functional enhancements, with a focus on maintaining steady growth in subscriber base and ARPPU [39][41]