Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the first six months of 2025 was EUR 300.8 million, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the Green Capacities and Networks segments [2][13] - Total investments decreased to EUR 343.2 million, down 18.7% year-over-year, with 48.1% allocated to Networks and 45.6% to Green Capacities [3][13] - The FFO LTM/Net Debt ratio improved slightly to 29.8% from 29.7% as of December 31, 2024, indicating strong leverage metrics [4] Business Development - Green Capacities segment saw an increase in Secured Capacity to 3.4 GW and Installed Capacity to 1.8 GW, with key projects reaching COD [5] - Networks segment investments increased by 40% as part of a 10-year investment plan, with 1.18 million smart meters installed [6] - A 7-year PPA was signed with Lithuanian TSO at a fixed price of EUR 74.5/MWh for up to 160 GWh/year, effective January 2026 [7] Sustainability - The Green Share of Generation decreased to 63.8%, down 21.0 percentage points year-over-year, due to higher generation at Elektrėnai Complex [8] - Total GHG emissions rose to 2.61 million t CO2-eq, a 26.0% increase year-over-year, with significant increases in Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions [9] - Carbon intensity increased to 236 g CO2-eq/kWh, up 16.6% year-over-year, driven by higher natural gas generation [10] Shareholder Returns and 2025 Outlook - The company plans to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.683 per share, totaling EUR 49.4 million, pending shareholder approval [12] - Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains at EUR 500–540 million, with investment guidance of EUR 700–900 million [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Power** industry, particularly the solar and wind energy sectors within the Asia Pacific region [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Power Consumption Growth**: In the first half of 2025 (1H25), national power consumption increased by **3.7% year-over-year (yoy)**, a decline from **8.1% in 1H24**. The slowdown is attributed to a significant decrease in the secondary (industrial) sector, which grew by only **2.4% yoy** compared to **6.9% yoy** in the previous year [2][8]. - **Sector Performance**: The primary, tertiary, and residential sectors showed growth rates of **8.7%**, **7.1%**, and **4.9%** respectively in 1H25. Notably, residential demand surged to **10.8%** in June 2025, up from **5%**, **7%**, and **10%** in the preceding months [2]. - **Power Generation Statistics**: Total power generation reached **4,537 billion kWh** in 1H25, marking a **0.8% yoy** increase. Solar and wind power generation saw substantial growth of **20.0%** and **10.6% yoy**, respectively, with these sources accounting for **18%** of total power generation, up from **15%** in 1H24 [3]. - **Capacity Additions**: China added **293 GW** of power capacity in 1H25, a **92.0% yoy** increase, including **212 GW** of solar and **51 GW** of wind capacity, which grew by **107%** and **99% yoy**, respectively. However, newly installed solar and wind capacity in June was **14 GW** and **5 GW**, showing a significant month-over-month decline [4][8]. - **Investment Trends**: Investment in power generation capacity and power grid reached **Rmb 364 billion** and **Rmb 291 billion** in 1H25, reflecting increases of **5.9%** and **14.6%**, respectively [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Forecast Adjustments**: The China Electricity Council (CEC) revised its full-year growth forecast for power consumption down from **6%** to a range of **5-6%** yoy, indicating a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year [8]. - **Future Expectations**: A decline in solar installations is anticipated for the second half of 2025 (2H25), alongside continued weak plant utilization expected in July and August [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and trends in the China Power industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both growth opportunities and potential risks.

Core Viewpoint - Ecopetrol has successfully acquired 100% of Wind Autogeneración S.A.S. from Enel S.A.S., marking a significant step in its energy transition strategy and commitment to renewable energy projects in Colombia [1][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was approved by Ecopetrol's Board of Directors in December 2024 and has now been completed following the fulfillment of regulatory and anti-trust conditions [1]. - The integration of Wind Autogeneración S.A.S. into Ecopetrol's corporate structure has commenced [7]. Group 2: Windpeshi Project Overview - The Windpeshi project, located in La Guajira, will have an installed capacity of 205 MW and is expected to contribute an average of 1,006 GWh/year, which is approximately 8-9% of Ecopetrol Group's energy demand [2]. - The project aims to optimize energy costs and is projected to result in a decarbonization benefit of about 4.8 million tons of CO2 emissions, with estimated investments of nearly $350 million from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Group 3: Project Development Timeline - Ecopetrol plans to restart construction of the Windpeshi project by the end of 2025, with operations expected to begin before 2028 [4]. - The company intends to engage top-tier contractors for the development and construction phases [4]. Group 4: Community Engagement - Ecopetrol emphasizes the importance of engaging with the Wayuu indigenous communities affected by the project, coordinating efforts with national, regional, and local authorities [5]. Group 5: Strategic Positioning - The Windpeshi Project represents the beginning of Ecopetrol's non-conventional renewable energy initiatives in La Guajira, a region recognized for its potential in solar and wind energy development [6]. - Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia, responsible for over 60% of the country's hydrocarbon production and holds significant positions in various energy sectors across the Americas [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on China Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a price target of HK$7.20 [28][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected ~19% growth in Longyuan's wind power generation for June 2025, driven by improved wind speeds, which is significantly higher than the ~10% organic capacity growth expected for FY24 [4][6][29]. - The analysis employs machine learning techniques to predict monthly power generation, achieving an average accuracy of ~95% [19][28]. - The report identifies trading opportunities based on the variance between predicted generation growth and trailing capacity growth, suggesting a long-short strategy could yield an average annual return of ~8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [4][15][19]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Generation Forecast - Longyuan's wind power generation for June 2025 is estimated at ~5.0 billion kWh, reflecting a ~19% year-over-year growth [6][24]. - The report notes that monthly wind speed volatility significantly impacts generation and share price performance, with historical monthly growth ranging from -19.4% to +28.6% [9][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that investors can utilize predictions to assess the likelihood of irregular events in monthly generation releases, recommending a trading strategy based on deviations greater than 5% from trailing capacity growth [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate power generation forecasts for trading opportunities ahead of generation statistic releases [14][19]. Company Analysis - Longyuan is recognized as the largest and most established wind farm operator in China, with a total consolidated wind installed capacity of 27.8 GW as of the end of 2023 [29][30]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for Longyuan due to secular capacity growth driven by China's carbon-neutrality goals and an increasing mix of grid-parity projects [28][29]. Valuation - The price target of HK$7.20 is based on a target P/BV of 0.75x, reflecting Longyuan's lower gearing compared to Datang RE [30][31].

Summary of China Longyuan Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Longyuan Power (916 HK/001289 CH) - **Industry**: Electric Utilities Key Financial Results - **1Q25 Net Profit**: RMB 1,902 million, a decrease of 22% year-over-year (y-o-y) [1] - **Profit from Continuing Operations**: Down 16% quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) [1] - **Revenue**: RMB 8,140 million, a decline of 19% y-o-y [19] - **Gross Profit**: RMB 3,468 million, down 14% y-o-y [19] - **Basic and Diluted EPS**: RMB 0.23, a decrease of 21% y-o-y [19] Core Points and Arguments - **Weak Results**: The weak performance was attributed to: - Seasonal weakness in wind resources and grid curtailments - Increased staff costs and depreciation & amortization (D&A) in line with a 20% increase in wind and solar capacity [1][2] - Milder than expected drop in power sales tariffs [1] - **Curtailment Pressure**: Cumulative wind/solar installations reached 1,481 GW in 1Q25, with power output from wind and solar increasing by 15% and 44% y-o-y, respectively. This has led to increased curtailment pressure, particularly in provinces with weak local demand [2] - **Earnings Estimates**: Earnings estimates for Longyuan were cut by 6-8% for 2025-27 based on the latest data, which was not surprising to the market [2][25] - **Target Prices**: The target prices were adjusted to HKD 8.30/RMB 21.30 from HKD 8.70/RMB 22.40, reflecting attractive value at 0.6x 2025e P/B for H-shares [2][25] Segment Performance - **Wind Power**: - Revenue decreased by 2% in 1Q25, with power generation volume up by 4% despite a 10% increase in installed capacity to 30.4 GW. Utilization fell by 9% to 585 hours, and grid curtailments increased to approximately 4% [8][20] - Market-based power sales tariffs dropped by 9% y-o-y [8] - **Solar Power**: - Revenue increased by 43% due to a 56% rise in power generation volume. Cumulative capacity rose by 66% to 10.7 GW by the end of 1Q25 [8][20] - **New Builds**: Longyuan added 36 MW of new renewable capacity in 1Q25 and plans to add 5 GW in 2025, focusing on improving operating efficiency rather than capacity expansion [8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Metrics**: - Current share price: HKD 6.10, with an upside of 36.1% to the target price [5] - Target price for A-shares: RMB 21.30, with an upside of 26.9% [5] - WACC: 6.4%, with a terminal growth rate of 1.5% [26] - **Risks**: - Potential risks include stronger-than-expected coal prices affecting coal power profits, lower-than-expected tariffs, and weaker utilization leading to reduced power generation and revenue [26] Other Important Information - **Market Data**: - Market cap: HKD 110,200 million (USD 14,207 million) [5] - Free float: 95% for H-shares, 9% for A-shares [5] - 3-month average daily trading volume: USD 24 million for H-shares, USD 18 million for A-shares [5] - **ESG Metrics**: - Employee costs as a percentage of revenues: 11.2% - Female board members: 12.5% [13] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, segment results, valuation, and associated risks for China Longyuan Power.