03 Feb 2026 11:18:42 ET │ 19 pages Vi e w p o i n t | China Diversified Utilities Higher Grid Capex Growth in 2026E; Lifting Solar & Wind Installations CITI'S TAKE PRC electricity demand growth in 2025 was +5.0% y/y, a deceleration of 1.8ppts from the previous year due to a warmer-than-usual winter in 1Q25. We expect electricity demand growth to accelerate to 6.5% y/y in 2026 based on a 1.3x multiple for annual electricity demand growth versus annual GDP growth, similar to those in 2020-24. Meanwhile, 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brookfield Renewable is positioned for strong total return potential, driven by robust financial performance and growth prospects in the renewable energy sector [1][10]. Financial Performance - In the previous year, Brookfield Renewable generated $1.3 billion in funds from operations (FFO), equating to $2.01 per share, marking a 10% increase from 2024 [3]. - The legacy hydroelectric business contributed $607 million in FFO, a 19% year-over-year increase, supported by higher revenues and stronger generation in Canada and Colombia [4]. - The distributed energy, storage, and sustainable solutions platform generated $614 million in FFO, reflecting a nearly 90% year-over-year increase, aided by acquisitions and a resurgence in nuclear power demand [6]. Growth Drivers - The company expects to achieve over 10% annual FFO per share growth through at least 2030, which will support continued dividend growth of 5% to 9% annually [8]. - Brookfield delivered a record 8 gigawatts (GW) of new clean energy capacity last year, a 20% increase from the prior year, with plans to reach 10 GW of annual capacity additions by 2027 [9]. - The company signed a deal to supply Google with up to 3 GW of hydropower and is pursuing the development of over 1 GW of battery storage capacity [9]. Strategic Positioning - Brookfield is strategically positioned to capitalize on multi-decade trends such as reindustrialization, electrification, and data center expansion, which will drive demand for clean power [7]. - The company has a strong track record of delivering at least 5% annual dividend increases since its public market listing in 2011, with a planned 5% increase for 2026 [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Tor Lønnum has been appointed as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Statkraft, effective from 1 February 2026, succeeding Tone Aastveit Skuterud [1][3]. Group 1: Appointment Details - The recruitment process for the new CFO was initiated in December 2025 and was conducted by Korn Ferry, combining search and open applications [3]. - Lønnum brings over 25 years of senior financial leadership experience from various large Nordic and international companies, including previous CFO roles in regulated and capital-intensive sectors [1][5]. Group 2: Leadership Perspective - Birgitte Ringstad Vartdal, President and CEO of Statkraft, expressed confidence in Lønnum's ability to contribute to the company's success, highlighting his broad strategic, financial, and leadership experience [2]. - Lønnum emphasized his eagerness to support Statkraft's refined strategy and long-term value creation, recognizing the company's critical role in Europe's energy system and renewable resource development [4]. Group 3: Company Background - Statkraft is recognized as Europe's largest generator of renewable energy, specializing in hydropower, wind power, solar power, and gas-fired power, with operations in over 20 countries and approximately 7,000 employees [7].

Core Insights - In December, the production of raw coal and crude oil in large-scale industries remained stable, while natural gas production showed steady growth and electricity production continued to increase [1] Group 1: Electricity Production - In December, the electricity generation of large-scale industries reached 858.6 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, with an average daily generation of 27.7 billion kWh [1] - For the entire year of 2023, the total electricity generation was 9715.9 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] Group 2: Breakdown by Energy Source - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power slowed down [1] - Specifically, thermal power generation decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.0 percentage point compared to November [1] - Hydropower generation increased by 4.1%, but the growth rate slowed by 13.0 percentage points from November [1] - Nuclear power generation grew by 3.1%, with a slowdown of 1.6 percentage points compared to November [1] - Wind power generation saw an increase of 8.9%, with a deceleration of 13.1 percentage points from November [1] - Solar power generation rose by 18.2%, but the growth rate decreased by 5.2 percentage points compared to November [1]

Core Insights - Google is securing significant future power supplies to support its data centers, which are essential for Google Cloud and AI initiatives like Google Gemini [1][11] - The company has signed multiple power purchase agreements (PPAs) to ensure a stable supply of carbon-free energy [2][3] Power Supply Agreements - Google has signed PPAs with Clearway Energy Group for nearly 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of carbon-free energy, which will help power its data centers [2][3] - Clearway Energy plans to start construction on projects totaling over 1 GW this year, with commercial service expected to begin in 2027 and 2028 [4] Energy Consumption Context - Traditional data centers consume 10 to 50 times more energy per floor space than typical office buildings, and AI chatbot queries consume nearly 10 times as much electricity as standard Google searches [1] Strategic Partnerships - Google has also signed a Hydro Framework Agreement with Brookfield Renewable for up to 3 GW of hydropower, marking the world's largest hydro power deal [7] - A collaboration with NextEra Energy includes a 25-year PPA to support the restart of the Duane Arnold Energy Center, adding 615 MW of capacity [8][10] Future Growth and Financial Implications - The strategic moves to secure power supplies are seen as essential for Google's growth in AI, allowing the company to focus on developing powerful AI tools while ensuring stable energy costs [11] - The PPAs will provide power suppliers with growing cash flow, potentially increasing dividends and generating strong total returns for shareholders [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's hydropower generation, indicating a significant increase in production and a positive outlook for the industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's hydropower generation reached 96.7 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative hydropower generation in China was 1,228.55 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a cumulative growth of 2.7% [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the hydropower sector include: - Changjiang Electric Power (600900) - Huaneng Hydropower (600025) - Guotou Power (600886) - Chuan Investment Energy (600674) - Guiguan Electric Power (600236) - Qianyuan Electric Power (002039) - Hubei Energy (000883) - Mindong Electric Power (000993) - Leshan Electric Power (600644) - Chaozhou International Electric (600969) [1]

Core Insights - Sichuan province has officially surpassed 100 million kilowatts in hydropower installed capacity, becoming the first province in China to enter the "100 million kilowatt" era in hydropower generation [1][4] - This capacity is equivalent to 4.4 Three Gorges dams, with an annual generation potential of 400 billion kilowatt-hours, sufficient to meet the electricity needs of 500 million people for a year or power 178 million electric vehicles for a year [1] - Sichuan's hydropower development has grown over 700,000 times since the first hydropower station was established, showcasing its significant advancements in hydropower engineering technology [1][8] Resource Endowment and Historical Development - Sichuan has the largest technically exploitable hydropower resources in China, estimated at approximately 148 million kilowatts [1] - The province's hydropower development began slowly in the early years of the People's Republic of China, with significant milestones achieved from 1978 to 1999, marking the transition to a "large hydropower" era [4] - Major hydropower stations, such as Gongzui and Ertan, were completed during this period, contributing to the rapid increase in installed capacity [4] Strategic Importance and Future Directions - The achievement of 100 million kilowatts is seen as a milestone for Sichuan, reinforcing its position as a clean energy hub in China and supporting the national "West-East Power Transmission" strategy [6] - Sichuan's clean energy structure is currently 85% hydropower, and the province aims to further integrate wind and solar energy into its energy mix, creating a "Wind and Solar Sichuan" [5][6] - Experts suggest that while hydropower development may face limitations, there remains 30-40% of exploitable capacity, with a shift towards more challenging upstream projects and energy storage solutions [4][5] Challenges and Considerations - The reliance on hydropower poses risks, particularly in extreme weather conditions, which can lead to significant fluctuations in energy supply [6][7] - Environmental concerns and high construction costs in ecologically sensitive areas present challenges for future hydropower development [7] - Balancing local electricity demand with the need to export power during peak periods is becoming increasingly complex, necessitating strategic planning and coordination at the national level [7]

Core Insights - CFO Anna Nord Bjercke of Statkraft AS will step down to pursue opportunities outside the company, effective January 1, 2026, with Tone Aastveit Skuterud appointed as acting CFO [1][2][3] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Anna Nord Bjercke joined Statkraft as CFO in January 2024 and has contributed to refining the business strategy, divesting non-core activities, and reducing costs significantly during her tenure [2] - Tone Aastveit Skuterud, the new acting CFO, has extensive experience, having previously held senior management roles at Telenor and served in various capacities at Statkraft for 12 years [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company has focused on strengthening its financial robustness and competitiveness amid increased uncertainty in the energy sector, with planned divestments being a key milestone for new investments [3] - Statkraft is recognized as Europe's largest renewable energy producer, with a diverse portfolio that includes hydropower, wind power, solar power, and gas-fired power [6]

Summary of Yangtze Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. (YZP) - **Industry**: Hydropower and Renewable Energy - **Ticker**: 600900 CH Key Points Hydropower Generation Targets - Management reaffirmed confidence in meeting the 2025 hydropower generation target of **300 billion kWh** despite lower water inflows in the first nine months of 2025 [3][12] - Water inflow at Wudongde and Three Gorges was down in 9M25 compared to 9M24, but six cascade hydropower stations maintained stable power generation year-over-year [3][12] Financial Performance and Cost Management - Significant improvements in financing costs through debt restructuring, with overall financing costs expected to be lower than **Rmb 10 billion** in 2025, down approximately **Rmb 2 billion** compared to 2023/2024 [4][12] - Management highlighted the reduction of financial costs due to low-interest loan replacements and early repayments [4][12] Power Pricing and Market Impact - Limited impact from recent power price fluctuations due to a high proportion of fixed-price contracts; about **37%** of power is sold at market prices, with **20%** linked to long-term contracts [5][12] - Management anticipates further weakness in overall power prices in China due to ample power supply and weak coal prices, but expects recognition of YZP's hydropower for its green value in the long run [5][12] Dividend Policy - YZP maintains a commitment to a minimum **70%** dividend payout, with potential increases subject to future investment and shareholder needs [8][12] Capacity Upgrades and Future Investments - Ongoing capacity upgrades at Gezhouba and Xiangjiaba stations, with high returns and strong margins expected [9][12] - Future investments will focus on new hydropower resources, pumped storage stations, and clean energy innovation, with plans to add **6.8 GW** of pumped storage capacity by the end of 2030 [9][12] Analyst Recommendations - J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Yangtze Power, with a price target of **Rmb 34.30** by June 2026, indicating an attractive yield spread against government bonds [10][12][13] Risks - Downside risks to the rating and price target include lower-than-expected utilization and hydropower tariffs [15][12] Conclusion Yangtze Power remains a strong player in the hydropower sector with solid financial management, a commitment to dividends, and strategic investments in capacity upgrades and renewable energy innovation. The company is well-positioned to meet its generation targets despite current market challenges.

Core Insights - German utility Uniper has implemented a hedging strategy by selling significant amounts of its future hydropower and nuclear output [1] Company Summary - Uniper has engaged in the sale of its future hydropower and nuclear production as part of a broader risk management approach [1]