Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Merck (MRK) will report quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, reflecting a 12.7% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $15.71 billion, down 2.5% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.1% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda' at $7.90 billion, indicating an 8.7% year-over-year increase [5]. - 'Sales- Vaccines- Gardasil' is projected at $1.30 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 47.5% from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Sales- Animal health' is expected to reach $1.55 billion, suggesting a 4.5% year-over-year increase [5]. Oncology Sales Breakdown - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima' is estimated at $244.01 million, down 2% from the year-ago quarter [6]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda - U.S.' is projected at $4.67 billion, reflecting a 5.9% increase year over year [6]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda - International' is expected to reach $3.16 billion, indicating a 10.4% year-over-year increase [6]. Additional Oncology Revenue Estimates - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lynparza - U.S.' is expected to be $140.82 million, down 8% from the previous year [7]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lynparza - International' is projected at $185.43 million, reflecting a 12.4% year-over-year increase [7]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima - U.S.' is estimated at $178.30 million, indicating a 0.7% increase from the year-ago quarter [8]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima - International' is expected to be $73.72 million, reflecting a 1% increase year over year [8]. Hospital Acute Care Sales - 'Sales- Hospital Acute Care- Zerbaxa - U.S.' is projected to reach $36.85 million, indicating an 11.7% increase from the prior-year quarter [9]. - 'Sales- Hospital Acute Care- Zerbaxa - International' is expected to be $29.97 million, reflecting a 7.1% year-over-year increase [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Merck shares have recorded a return of +5.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.7% change [9]. - Based on its Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), Merck is expected to underperform the overall market in the upcoming period [9].

Core Insights - Merck reported revenue of $15.53 billion for Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.6% year-over-year, with an EPS of $2.22, up from $2.07 in the same quarter last year, exceeding both revenue and EPS consensus estimates [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue of $15.53 billion compared to Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.39 billion, resulting in a surprise of +0.93% [1] - EPS of $2.22 compared to consensus estimate of $2.15, leading to an EPS surprise of +3.26% [1] Key Metrics - Merck's stock has returned -10.6% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -5.1% change [3] - Current Zacks Rank for Merck is 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3] Oncology Sales - Keytruda U.S. sales were $4.31 billion, below the average estimate of $4.47 billion, but up 4.6% year-over-year [4] - Keytruda International sales were $2.90 billion, compared to the $3.08 billion estimate, reflecting a 2.4% year-over-year increase [4] - Lynparza U.S. sales reached $145 million, exceeding the $121.96 million estimate, with a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [4] - Lynparza International sales were $168 million, below the $178.66 million estimate, but up 7% year-over-year [4] - Total Keytruda sales amounted to $7.21 billion, compared to the $7.55 billion estimate, marking a 3.7% year-over-year increase [4] Other Product Sales - Zerbaxa sales in Hospital Acute Care were $70 million, surpassing the $63.07 million estimate, with a 25% year-over-year increase [4] - Animal health sales were $1.59 billion, slightly below the $1.61 billion estimate, but up 5.1% year-over-year [4] - Prevymis sales were $208 million, exceeding the $190.69 million estimate, with a significant year-over-year increase of 19.5% [4] - Reblozyl sales reached $119 million, above the $101.77 million estimate, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 67.6% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Merck's quarterly earnings to be $2.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, while revenues are expected to decline by 1.9% to $15.48 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 4%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Sales for Oncology product Keytruda are projected to reach $7.55 billion, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year [5]. - Hospital Acute Care sales for Zerbaxa are expected to be $63.07 million, reflecting a 12.6% increase from the previous year [5]. - Alliance revenue for Lynparza is estimated at $300.62 million, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [5]. - Sales for Oncology Alliance revenue Lenvima are projected at $234.33 million, showing an 8.1% decline from the prior year [6]. - U.S. sales for Keytruda are expected to be $4.47 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase year-over-year [6]. - International sales for Keytruda are projected at $3.08 billion, indicating an 8.8% increase from the previous year [7]. - U.S. sales for Lynparza are expected to reach $121.96 million, reflecting a 9.7% decline year-over-year [7]. - International sales for Lynparza are projected at $178.66 million, indicating a 13.8% increase from the prior year [8]. - U.S. sales for Lenvima are expected to be $155.59 million, reflecting a 10.1% decline year-over-year [8]. - International sales for Lenvima are projected at $78.74 million, indicating a 4% decline from the previous year [9]. - U.S. sales for Zerbaxa are expected to reach $36.81 million, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year [9]. - International sales for Zerbaxa are projected at $26.26 million, indicating a 14.2% increase from the prior year [10]. Stock Performance - Merck's shares have decreased by 17.7% over the past month, compared to a 6.9% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [10].