Core Insights - Merck (MRK) reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.13, exceeding estimates, but a 7% decline year-over-year on a reported basis due to a $200 million upfront payment for a license agreement with Hengrui Pharma [2][9][17] - Revenues decreased 2% year-over-year to $15.81 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [3][9] Sales Performance of Oncology Drugs - Keytruda sales reached $7.96 billion, a 9% increase, driven by strong uptake in various cancer indications, surpassing estimates [4][9] - Alliance revenues from Lynparza and Lenvima contributed positively, with Lynparza sales up 15% to $370 million and Lenvima revenues totaling $265 million, up 5% [5] Sales Performance of Other Key Products - HPV vaccine sales (Gardasil and Gardasil 9) fell 55% to $1.13 billion due to reduced demand in China, missing estimates [7] - Sales of other vaccines showed mixed results, with Vaxneuvance increasing 20% to $229 million, while Rotateq and Pneumovax 23 saw significant declines [8][10] Animal Health Segment - The Animal Health segment generated $1.65 billion in revenues, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher demand and the inclusion of Elanco aqua business sales [12] Cost and Margin Discussion - Adjusted gross margin improved to 82.2%, up 130 basis points year-over-year, attributed to a favorable product mix [13] - Adjusted R&D spending rose 15% to $3.99 billion, influenced by the upfront payment to Hengrui Pharma and increased compensation costs [14] 2025 Guidance - Merck narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $64.3-$65.3 billion, reflecting a less negative currency impact [15] - Adjusted EPS guidance is now between $8.87 and $8.97, accounting for a revised negative impact from foreign exchange [16] Acquisition Plans - Merck announced plans to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, expected to close in Q4 2025, which will enhance its portfolio in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [19]

Core Insights - Merck reported $15.81 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.9% and an EPS of $2.13, down from $2.28 a year ago, with a slight revenue surprise of -0.02% against estimates [1] - The consensus EPS estimate was $2.01, resulting in an EPS surprise of +5.97% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Merck's stock has returned +6.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Sales Performance by Product - Keytruda (Oncology) U.S. sales reached $4.75 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.67 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +7.6% [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) International sales were $3.21 billion, surpassing the $3.16 billion estimate, marking a +12.2% year-over-year change [4] - Janumet (Diabetes) U.S. sales were $68 million, significantly above the $45.63 million estimate, reflecting a +300% year-over-year increase [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) U.S. alliance revenue was $174 million, exceeding the $140.82 million estimate, with a +13.7% year-over-year change [4] - Lynparza (Oncology) international alliance revenue reached $370 million, surpassing the $321.44 million estimate, representing a +16.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Winrevair (Cardiovascular) sales were $336 million, slightly below the $343.79 million estimate [4] - Lenvima (Oncology) alliance revenue was $265 million, exceeding the $244.01 million estimate, with a +6.4% year-over-year change [4] - Keytruda (Oncology) total sales were $7.96 billion, slightly above the $7.9 billion estimate, reflecting a +9.4% year-over-year change [4] - Animal health sales reached $1.65 billion, exceeding the $1.55 billion estimate, with an +11.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Gardasil (Vaccines) sales were $1.13 billion, below the $1.3 billion estimate, showing a -54.6% year-over-year decline [4] - Welireg (Oncology) sales were $162 million, exceeding the $154.16 million estimate [4] - Lagevrio (Virology) sales were $83 million, surpassing the $55.63 million estimate, but reflecting a -24.6% year-over-year decline [4]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 29, with consensus estimates for sales at $15.77 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.99, reflecting a decline in earnings estimates over the past month [1][6]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - The current EPS estimate for Q2 is $1.99, down from $2.03 30 days ago, indicating a downward trend in earnings expectations [2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 3.82%, with the last quarter showing a surprise of 3.26% [3]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Keytruda, Merck's leading cancer drug, is expected to drive top-line growth in Q2, with sales estimates for Keytruda at $7.90 billion [5][7]. - Other drugs like Lynparza and new products such as Capvaxive are anticipated to contribute positively to pharmaceutical sales [6][14]. Performance of Specific Products - Sales of Keytruda are likely boosted by its uptake in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer and continued demand in metastatic indications [7]. - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see mixed results, with lower demand in China but increased sales in other markets [10]. - Generic competition is impacting sales of certain products, such as Bridion, while new drugs like Winrevair and Capvaxive are showing promising sales growth [11][13]. Valuation and Market Performance - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date loss of 13.9% [16][22]. - The company's price/earnings ratio of 9.05 is lower than the industry average of 15.25, suggesting potential attractiveness from a valuation perspective [17]. Strategic Developments - Merck's acquisition of Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion is expected to enhance its cardio-pulmonary pipeline [21][23]. - Despite the strength of Keytruda, there are concerns regarding the company's reliance on this drug and the need for diversification [20][24]. Long-Term Outlook - While Merck faces challenges such as declining sales for Gardasil in China and potential competition for Keytruda, the company is expected to maintain strong sales until Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [26][27]. - Long-term investors are encouraged to stay invested, while short-term investors may consider selling due to immediate challenges [27].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Merck (MRK) will report quarterly earnings of $1.99 per share, reflecting a 12.7% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $15.71 billion, down 2.5% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.1% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda' at $7.90 billion, indicating an 8.7% year-over-year increase [5]. - 'Sales- Vaccines- Gardasil' is projected at $1.30 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 47.5% from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Sales- Animal health' is expected to reach $1.55 billion, suggesting a 4.5% year-over-year increase [5]. Oncology Sales Breakdown - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima' is estimated at $244.01 million, down 2% from the year-ago quarter [6]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda - U.S.' is projected at $4.67 billion, reflecting a 5.9% increase year over year [6]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Keytruda - International' is expected to reach $3.16 billion, indicating a 10.4% year-over-year increase [6]. Additional Oncology Revenue Estimates - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lynparza - U.S.' is expected to be $140.82 million, down 8% from the previous year [7]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lynparza - International' is projected at $185.43 million, reflecting a 12.4% year-over-year increase [7]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima - U.S.' is estimated at $178.30 million, indicating a 0.7% increase from the year-ago quarter [8]. - 'Sales- Oncology- Alliance revenue- Lenvima - International' is expected to be $73.72 million, reflecting a 1% increase year over year [8]. Hospital Acute Care Sales - 'Sales- Hospital Acute Care- Zerbaxa - U.S.' is projected to reach $36.85 million, indicating an 11.7% increase from the prior-year quarter [9]. - 'Sales- Hospital Acute Care- Zerbaxa - International' is expected to be $29.97 million, reflecting a 7.1% year-over-year increase [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Merck shares have recorded a return of +5.4%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.7% change [9]. - Based on its Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), Merck is expected to underperform the overall market in the upcoming period [9].

Merck (MRK) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.22, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15. Earnings rose 7% year over year on a reported basis and 12% excluding foreign exchange (Fx). This upside was primarily driven by a one-time charge incurred by the company in the year-ago quarter for the acquisition of Harpoon Therapeutics, which was completed in March 2024.Revenues declined 2% year over year (up 1% excluding Fx) to $15.53 billion. Sales also beat the Zacks Co ...

For the quarter ended March 2025, Merck (MRK) reported revenue of $15.53 billion, down 1.6% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $2.22, compared to $2.07 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.39 billion, representing a surprise of +0.93%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +3.26%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.15.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they co ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its first-quarter 2024 earnings on April 24, with sales and earnings estimates at $15.48 billion and $2.16 per share respectively, while earnings estimates for 2025 have seen a slight decline from $9.01 to $8.96 per share over the past month [1][2]. Earnings Performance - Merck has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 4.68% [2][3]. - The most recent quarter showed an earnings surprise of 1.78% [2]. Sales Drivers - The anticipated top-line growth in Q1 is expected to be driven by the cancer drug Keytruda, supported by increased patient demand and additional indications [5]. - Keytruda's sales are projected at $7.55 billion according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while a higher estimate of $7.82 billion is provided [6]. Product Performance - U.S. sales of Keytruda in the previous quarter benefited from approximately $200 million in wholesale inventory buy-in, which is expected to reverse in Q1 2025 [7]. - Sales of the new drug Welireg are likely to have increased due to its uptake for advanced renal cell carcinoma [13]. - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see mixed results, with U.S. sales increasing due to higher pricing, while ex-U.S. sales may decline due to lower demand in China [10]. Competitive Landscape - Merck's reliance on Keytruda raises concerns about the company's ability to diversify its product lineup ahead of the drug's loss of exclusivity in 2028 [23]. - Competitive pressure for Keytruda may increase, particularly from Summit Therapeutics' candidate ivonescimab, which has shown promising results in trials [24]. Valuation and Market Performance - Merck's stock has declined 21.1% year-to-date, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [16]. - The company's shares trade at a forward price/earnings ratio of 8.44, which is lower than the industry average of 15.07 and its own 5-year mean of 13.10 [19]. Investment Outlook - Merck's portfolio includes several blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda being a significant revenue driver, alongside growth in animal health and vaccine products [22]. - Despite challenges such as declining sales for Gardasil in China and potential competition for Keytruda, the company is expected to maintain strong fundamentals in the long term [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Merck's quarterly earnings to be $2.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, while revenues are expected to decline by 1.9% to $15.48 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 4%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Sales for Oncology product Keytruda are projected to reach $7.55 billion, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year [5]. - Hospital Acute Care sales for Zerbaxa are expected to be $63.07 million, reflecting a 12.6% increase from the previous year [5]. - Alliance revenue for Lynparza is estimated at $300.62 million, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [5]. - Sales for Oncology Alliance revenue Lenvima are projected at $234.33 million, showing an 8.1% decline from the prior year [6]. - U.S. sales for Keytruda are expected to be $4.47 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase year-over-year [6]. - International sales for Keytruda are projected at $3.08 billion, indicating an 8.8% increase from the previous year [7]. - U.S. sales for Lynparza are expected to reach $121.96 million, reflecting a 9.7% decline year-over-year [7]. - International sales for Lynparza are projected at $178.66 million, indicating a 13.8% increase from the prior year [8]. - U.S. sales for Lenvima are expected to be $155.59 million, reflecting a 10.1% decline year-over-year [8]. - International sales for Lenvima are projected at $78.74 million, indicating a 4% decline from the previous year [9]. - U.S. sales for Zerbaxa are expected to reach $36.81 million, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year [9]. - International sales for Zerbaxa are projected at $26.26 million, indicating a 14.2% increase from the prior year [10]. Stock Performance - Merck's shares have decreased by 17.7% over the past month, compared to a 6.9% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [10].

Core Viewpoint - Merck's recent earnings report shows strong performance with adjusted earnings and revenue growth, but challenges in specific product sales, particularly Gardasil in China, may impact future guidance and stock performance [2][3][21]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q4 2024 were $1.72 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.69, and significantly up from $0.03 in the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenues for Q4 2024 rose 7% year over year to $15.62 billion, driven by Keytruda and new products, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.56 billion [3]. - Full-year 2024 sales increased 7% to $64.2 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $64.06 billion [18]. Segment Performance - The Pharmaceutical segment generated revenues of $14.04 billion, up 7% year over year, driven by oncology and cardiovascular drugs [4]. - Keytruda sales reached $7.84 billion, a 21% increase year over year, benefiting from strong demand in various cancer indications [5]. - The Animal Health segment reported revenues of $1.40 billion, up 9% year over year, driven by higher demand and pricing [14]. Product-Specific Insights - Sales of Gardasil vaccines fell 18% to $1.55 billion due to lower demand in China, leading to a temporary halt in shipments [7][9]. - Januvia/Janumet sales declined 36% year over year to $487 million, impacted by lower demand and pricing in the U.S. [12]. - New drug Winrevair generated $200 million in sales, reflecting strong uptake in the U.S. market [13]. Guidance and Future Outlook - For 2025, Merck expects revenues between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion, representing 2% to 4% growth, but this guidance is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $68.05 billion [20][21]. - The company anticipates a negative impact on sales from the temporary halt of Gardasil shipments in China and foreign exchange fluctuations [21][22]. - Adjusted earnings per share for 2025 are projected to be between $8.88 and $9.03, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.18 [25]. Market Position and Trends - Merck's stock has seen a 3.9% increase over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500, but recent estimates have trended downward, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][27]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting expectations of below-average returns in the near term [30].