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The Wall Street Journal· 2025-08-28 19:57
Exclusive: What began as an April Fools’ joke has become a real product for Arizona Beverages, thanks to a 9-year-old TikTok star known as “The Rizzler” https://t.co/8lvBVKlh8E ...
中国即时零售深度分析-China Quick Commerce Deep Dive
2025-08-20 04:51
Summary of China Quick Commerce Deep Dive Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China quick commerce market**, which has shown significant growth from **RMB 69 billion in 2018** to an estimated **RMB 650 billion in 2023** [5][10] - The market is projected to reach **RMB 4,046 billion by 2030** [7][10] Market Size and Growth - The quick commerce market size has experienced a **CAGR of approximately 60%** from 2018 to 2023 [5] - Year-over-year growth rates are expected to continue, with a forecasted **YoY growth of 80%** in 2023 [5] Market Segmentation - Breakdown of the quick commerce market size in 2023: - **Food, beverage, oil, tobacco, alcohol**: RMB 277 billion (41% of total) - **Daily-use products**: RMB 108 billion (17%) - **Pharmaceuticals**: RMB 96 billion (15%) - **Home appliances**: RMB 50 billion (8%) - **Apparel and footwear**: RMB 40 billion (6%) [10][21] Online Penetration - Online penetration rates for various categories in 2023: - **Food and beverage**: 4% - **Daily-use products**: 5% - **Pharmaceuticals**: 5% - **Home appliances**: 2% [10] Long-term Profit Outlook - The industry is expected to generate **RMB 81 billion in profit by 2030**, translating to a **terminal value of RMB 695 billion** [22][23] - Investment requirements are estimated at **RMB 50-80 billion annually** for several years to achieve these targets [24] Financial Impact on Major Players - Projected financial impacts from investments in food delivery and quick commerce for major companies in 2025: - **JD**: Losses of RMB 13.5 billion to RMB 14.4 billion across quarters - **Alibaba**: Losses ranging from RMB 5.6 billion to RMB 16.8 billion - **Meituan**: Losses between RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 5.7 billion [28] Implications for Conventional E-commerce - A **30% cannibalization** from general merchandise is anticipated, with the quick commerce market GMV projected at **RMB 2.5 trillion** by 2030 [25] Key Takeaways - The quick commerce market in China is rapidly expanding, with significant growth potential and increasing online penetration across various categories - Major players are expected to face substantial financial impacts due to investments in this sector, which may affect their profitability in the short term - The long-term outlook remains positive, contingent on continued investment and market development strategies