Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is one of the best restaurant stocks to buy now. Bernstein Reiterates ‘Outperform’ Rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Reduces PT from $50 to $40 Copyright: gdolgikh / 123RF Stock Photo On January 5, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) was revisited by Bernstein, with the firm reiterating its “Outperform” rating but reducing its price target from $50 to $40. This comes amid the firm’s cautious near-term view on U.S. restaurant traffic. The firm says ...

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Group 1 - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 3, with the stock having declined over 14.5% since the last earnings release [1] - Wall Street analysts maintain a positive outlook on Chipotle, with a 12-month price target indicating a potential upside of more than 31.4% from the current stock level, driven by a favorable outlook for consumer stocks [2] - Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard noted that while consumer stocks have underperformed the broader market, the forward earnings valuation appears attractive, suggesting that investors may seek safety in the Consumer Staples sector amid tech sector volatility [2] Group 2 - Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated a Buy rating on Chipotle with a price target of $40, indicating confidence in the company's store potential despite recent stock performance challenges being deemed cyclical rather than structural [3] - The firm believes that Chipotle has untapped levers that can help grow customer traffic, reinforcing the company's growth potential [3] - Chipotle operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants specializing in customizable Mexican-inspired dishes, which are made with fresh ingredients [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is facing significant challenges due to a decline in sales among customers earning under $100,000, particularly in the 25-34 age group, which represents about 25% of total sales, as they shift towards grocery and home dining [2][3] Group 1: Sales and Demographics - The company has maintained market share within the under-$100,000 demographic, which accounts for approximately 40% of sales, but there is a notable pullback in spending [2][3] - The shift in consumer behavior presents a short-term challenge for the company, with no immediate catalyst identified to drive revenue growth [2] Group 2: Management and Strategy - Management's earnings call raised investor concerns about the company's strategic direction, particularly regarding its pricing strategy, as it does not prioritize value pricing despite customer perceptions of being expensive [3][4] - There is confusion in management's messaging, oscillating between promoting affordable meal options and emphasizing innovation and quality, which complicates the strategic focus [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Opportunities - Despite increased marketing spending, revenue targets have been missed, indicating a disconnect between initiatives and market performance [4] - The company's low penetration in catering, at 1-2% compared to peers at 5-10%, suggests there are untapped opportunities that have not been addressed [4] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Without a clearly articulated strategy to restore perceived value, there is significant uncertainty for investors, making it challenging to justify investment at current valuations [5] - The stock has depreciated approximately 37.16% since previous bullish coverage, highlighting the need for a credible plan to address pricing and consumer perception challenges [6]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has significantly underperformed the broader market, with stock prices dropping 47.6% year-to-date and 47.3% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 Index gained 12.3% in 2025 and 11% over the past year [2][4] - The company's Q3 results revealed a 7.5% year-over-year increase in topline revenue to $3 billion, which fell short of market expectations by 48 basis points, and an adjusted EPS of $0.29, which was a slight increase of 2 cents from the previous year [4][5] - Analysts maintain a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for CMG stock, with a mean price target of $44.39, indicating a 40.3% premium to current price levels, and a street-high target of $70 suggesting a potential upside of 121.3% [6][7] Financial Performance - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts project an adjusted EPS of $1.16, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [5] - The company has a history of earnings surprises, having exceeded bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 33 analysts covering CMG, there are 21 "Strong Buys," three "Moderate Buys," eight "Holds," and one "Strong Sell," indicating a slightly less optimistic outlook compared to the previous month [6][7] - JP Morgan analyst John Ivankoe has maintained a "Neutral" rating but lowered the price target from $44 to $40 [7]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) has faced significant stock price declines recently, with speculation that it may settle at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 to 24 times earnings, indicating potential further downside [1] - The company is in need of a turnaround, reminiscent of its struggles in 2015, when it brought in Brian Niccol as CEO, who successfully revitalized the brand and led to a substantial stock price increase from $5 to $56 [2] Company Overview - Chipotle operates restaurants that serve a variety of menu items including burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads [2] - The company has a history of overcoming challenges, as evidenced by the successful leadership of Brian Niccol, who was initially met with skepticism but ultimately proved to be the right choice for the company [2] Investment Perspective - While Chipotle shows potential as an investment, there are other AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk, suggesting a competitive investment landscape [2]

Group 1 - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is recognized for its need for a turnaround after recent challenges, with a historical context provided regarding its performance since 2015 [1] - The appointment of Brian Niccol as CEO is highlighted as a pivotal moment for the company, transitioning from a difficult period to a significant recovery, with the stock price increasing from $5 to $56 during his tenure [1] - The company offers a variety of menu items including burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads, indicating its diverse product range [2] Group 2 - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may present greater upside potential and lower downside risk compared to Chipotle, suggesting a competitive investment landscape [2] - The mention of Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend indicates potential external factors that could influence investment decisions in the current market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is facing challenges in maintaining its growth status, with concerns raised about its performance in the upcoming quarter, which is seen as critical for the company [1] Company Performance - Chipotle's stock has been significantly impacted, down 30% in the last quarter, making it one of the biggest losers among restaurant chains [1] - Despite the current underwhelming performance, there is potential for a rebound, as the company has a history of bouncing back after management improvements [1] Investment Perspective - While Chipotle is recognized as a potential reversal candidate, there are other AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [1]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) has seen a recovery in its stock price after reaching a 52-week low of $38.30, driven by the return of its popular Carne Asada offering and the "Chip-or-Treat" promotion [3] - The stock is currently 31.1% lower than at the beginning of the year, underperforming the S&P 500, but analysts maintain a positive outlook with a consensus price target suggesting nearly 30% upside in the next year [4][16] - The company has a strong following among Gen-Z consumers and loyal customers, attributed to its health-conscious menu and fast-casual dining experience [5][6] Financial Performance - Chipotle's revenue and net income have shown significant growth from 2014 to 2024, with projected revenues of $11.310 billion and net income of $1.534 billion in 2024 [10] - The stock completed a 50-for-1 split on June 26, 2024, aimed at making shares more accessible to a broader range of investors [12] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges such as inflation, fluctuating food costs, and rising labor costs, which impact profit margins and consumer spending [11] - Despite these challenges, Chipotle is investing in digital innovation and operational efficiency, which are expected to drive growth [11] Future Projections - Analysts project a year-end price of $54.67 for Chipotle, representing a potential gain of over 30% [17] - The company is expected to expand internationally, with digital ordering potentially accounting for over 50% of sales by 2026, driving higher margins [18] - By 2030, Chipotle may introduce fully automated outlets, significantly reducing labor costs and expanding catering services for corporate clients [23][24]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is set to announce its third-quarter results on October 29, with analysts expecting an EPS of $0.29, reflecting a 7.4% increase from the previous year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2025, earnings are projected to be $1.20 per share, up 7.1% from $1.12 in 2024, with a further expected surge of 18.3% to $1.42 per share in fiscal 2026 [3] - Despite a strong earnings surprise history, Chipotle's stock has underperformed, dropping 29.3% over the past 52 weeks compared to the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's 20% increase and the S&P 500 Index's 17.4% gains [4] Financial Performance - In Q2, Chipotle's revenues increased by 3% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, but this was 1.2% below market expectations [5] - Comparable restaurant sales fell by 4% year-over-year, driven by a 4.9% decline in transactions, although this was partially offset by an increase in average check [6] - The restaurant-level operating margins contracted by 1.5% to 27.4%, and adjusted EPS decreased by 2.9% year-over-year to $0.33 [6] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus rating for Chipotle remains highly optimistic, with a "Strong Buy" rating from 22 out of 32 analysts, alongside three "Moderate Buys" and seven "Holds" [7] - The mean price target of $58.13 indicates a potential upside of 41.8% from current price levels [7]