Key Takeaways KO's RGM execution drove 6% organic revenue growth in 3Q25, keeping results at the high end of its algorithm.Coca-Cola balances pricing with mix, using smaller packs like mini cans to support affordability and growth.Coca-Cola is leveraging premium brands and localized pack-price actions to drive mix gains across markets.The Coca-Cola Company’s (KO) Revenue Growth Management (“RGM”) strategy has emerged as a critical lever in sustaining momentum amid a complex consumer backdrop. Management emp ...

Core Insights - The enduring rivalry between PepsiCo Inc. and The Coca-Cola Company highlights their competition for market share and strategic dominance in the global beverage industry [1][2] PepsiCo (PEP) Summary - PepsiCo's investment case is supported by its dominant market position, holding or gaining carbonated soft drink share in about two-thirds of its top international markets [3][11] - In Q3 2025, PepsiCo's international beverage business achieved 6% organic revenue growth, with non-sugar variants leading in key markets like the U.K. [4] - The company's diversified business model, which includes a significant snacks portfolio, enhances its competitive edge and pricing power [5] - Management is focusing on faster-growing beverage segments, such as zero sugar and functional hydration, with brands like Pepsi Zero Sugar and Mountain Dew gaining market share [6] - PepsiCo reported nearly 3% growth in net revenues in Q3, driven by North America and international growth, despite facing supply chain and tariff-related cost pressures [7] - The company's fundamentals, market leadership, and disciplined cost management position it well for sustained cash flows and long-term shareholder returns [8] Coca-Cola (KO) Summary - Coca-Cola's investment thesis is based on its unmatched scale and durable market leadership, having gained overall value share for 18 consecutive quarters across all geographic segments [9][10] - The company boasts a deep portfolio with 30 billion-dollar brands, reinforcing its dominance and pricing power in the beverage industry [10] - Coca-Cola's strategy includes a "total beverage" approach, allowing it to adapt to shifting consumer preferences across demographics [12] - In Q3 2025, Coca-Cola delivered 6% organic revenue growth and expanded operating margins, achieving EPS growth despite currency headwinds [14] - Strong free cash flow generation and a conservative balance sheet provide Coca-Cola with the flexibility to reinvest in growth while returning capital to shareholders [14] Price Performance & Valuation - Over the past year, PepsiCo shares declined by 5.9%, while Coca-Cola shares increased by 11.2%, indicating Coca-Cola's stronger market performance [15] - From a valuation perspective, PepsiCo trades at a lower forward P/E of 16.84X compared to Coca-Cola's 21.74X, making it more attractively priced [16] - Despite its lower valuation, PepsiCo's diversity and innovation engine make it a compelling long-term investment, while Coca-Cola's premium valuation reflects its strong brand equity and growth potential [19] Consensus Estimates - PepsiCo's EPS estimate for 2025 has increased by 0.2%, with projected revenues of $93.5 billion, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year increase [20] - Coca-Cola's 2025 revenues are expected to rise by 2.7% to $48.3 billion, with EPS projected to grow by 3.5% to $2.98 per share [20] Competitive Edge - Coca-Cola currently holds a near-term advantage due to its stronger momentum and solid growth prospects, supported by its pure-play beverage focus and consistent market share gains [23] - PepsiCo offers an attractive counterbalance with its low valuation and favorable earnings recovery outlook, appealing to investors seeking value [24]

Key Takeaways Coca-Cola has risen 11.9% in a year, outpacing its industry and showing resilience in a mixed backdrop.KO posted solid Q3 organic revenue growth, volume gains and margin expansion despite currency pressure.Coca-Cola trades above key moving averages and holds value-share gains for 18 straight quarters.The Coca-Cola Company (KO) has displayed reasonable strength with 11.9% growth in the past year, outperforming the Beverages – Soft Drinks industry’s 4.9% rally and the Consumer Staples sector’s 5 ...

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. has significantly accelerated its growth trajectory through the acquisition and expansion of Alani Nu, which reported record revenues of $332 million in Q3 2025, driven by successful limited-time flavors and sustained organic growth [1][8] Group 1: Alani Nu Performance - Alani Nu's retail sales increased by 114% year over year and 15% sequentially, capturing a 7.2% share of the U.S. energy category, up 3.3 points from the previous year [2][8] - Seasonal flavors like Witches Brew have performed exceptionally well, enhancing the brand's cultural impact and consumer influence [2][3] - Retailers are increasingly embracing Alani Nu for its appeal among female consumers, with seasonal innovations boosting core SKU velocity [3] Group 2: Distribution and Transition - A significant transition of Alani Nu's U.S. DSD network to PepsiCo's distribution system is set to begin on December 1, 2025, which is expected to enhance ACV and create unified execution across Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar [4][5] - PepsiCo is funding approximately $247 million in distributor termination fees, ensuring the transition remains cash-neutral [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Despite anticipated challenges in Q4 2025 due to inventory returns and warehousing shifts, management remains confident in Alani Nu's ability to maintain momentum and support Celsius Holdings' growth into 2026 [5] - Celsius Holdings' stock has surged 48% year to date, contrasting with a 13.5% decline in the industry [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings' earnings indicates a year-over-year rise of 80% for 2025 and 20.7% for 2026, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates [13][14] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Celsius Holdings trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 26.15, significantly higher than the industry average of 14.70, and carries a Value Score of A [10]

Core Insights - The Coca-Cola Company (KO) demonstrated a resilient performance in Q3 2025, particularly in North America, despite mixed global results [1][10] - The company achieved 6% organic revenue growth and 6% comparable EPS growth, driven by disciplined pricing, marketing transformation, and innovation [4][10] North America Performance - North America was a bright spot for Coca-Cola, showing sequential volume improvement for the second consecutive quarter [1][10] - The region's performance was supported by the company's focus on affordability through smaller packs and premium segments, contributing to value share gains [2][4] Global Market Dynamics - Global performance was uneven, with Latin America and Asia Pacific facing macroeconomic and weather-related challenges, particularly in Mexico, India, and parts of ASEAN [3][10] - Despite these challenges, Coca-Cola continued to gain value share in most markets and maintained or expanded share across all geographic segments [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Coca-Cola's key rivals, PepsiCo and Monster Beverage, are experiencing distinct paths in North America, with both companies showing improvements in beverage volumes and innovation [6][7][8] - The competitive landscape is evolving as consumer spending and pricing strategies shift, raising questions about the sustainability of growth for these companies [6][7][8] Financial Metrics - Coca-Cola's shares have increased by 12.4% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 7.1% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.07X, which is higher than the industry's 18.36X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 8.2% for 2026, with recent estimates for 2025 remaining unchanged [13][14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, organic revenue grew by 6% and unit cases increased by 1% [16] - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) rose by 6% year-over-year to $0.82, despite facing 6% currency headwinds [17] - Free cash flow, excluding fairlife contingent consideration payment, was $8.5 billion, an increase from the previous year [17] - The company expects organic revenue growth of 5% to 6% and comparable currency-neutral EPS growth of approximately 8% for the full year 2025 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw flat volume but improved sequentially for the second consecutive quarter, with strong revenue and profit growth [10] - Latin America experienced flat volume but gained value share, with notable growth in Brazil driven by Coca-Cola Zero Sugar [11] - EMEA continued to grow volume and delivered strong revenue and profit growth, while Asia-Pacific faced volume declines but gained value share [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company gained overall value share for the 18th consecutive quarter, holding or gaining value share across all geographic segments [5] - In North America, the introduction of mini cans contributed $1 billion in revenue, addressing consumer affordability concerns [79] - The Asia-Pacific segment's organic sales were up 7%, but the growth was influenced by a mix effect due to varying performance across different markets [60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its all-weather strategy, adapting to dynamic market conditions while driving growth through sharper execution and investments [4] - Recent refranchising efforts, including the sale of stakes in bottlers, are expected to unlock growth opportunities in India and Africa [8] - The marketing transformation emphasizes digital engagement and cultural relevance, with innovative campaigns and product launches [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the external environment remains complex, they are confident in navigating challenges and delivering on 2025 guidance [8] - Inflationary pressures and geopolitical dynamics are acknowledged as ongoing challenges, but the company remains optimistic about long-term growth potential [5][22] - The company anticipates a normalization of pricing as inflation moderates, with a focus on both affordability and premiumization [20] Other Important Information - The company is actively addressing the impact of GLP-1 drugs on beverage consumption, noting a shift towards diet and protein drinks [66] - The ongoing dispute with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service regarding royalties from the Brazilian affiliate is being vigorously defended, with management optimistic about the outcome [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on market momentum and consumer sentiment - Management indicated that sequential improvement in Q3 was largely due to increased focus on marketing and execution rather than a significant change in the external environment [26] Question: Local competition and affordability - Management acknowledged a shift towards more local competition and emphasized the need for tailored responses in different markets [33] Question: Update on Latin America, particularly Mexico and Brazil - Management reported progressive improvement in Latin America, with Brazil showing strong growth while Mexico is still facing macroeconomic challenges [38] Question: Refranchising efforts and margin implications - Management confirmed that recent transactions are key steps in completing the refranchising strategy, which is expected to enhance overall system performance and margins [42] Question: Coffee strategy and performance - Management noted that while the coffee category is attractive, the company is still evaluating its approach following mixed results from previous investments [48] Question: Consumer trends in Asia and pricing sustainability - Management explained that the pricing increase in Asia-Pacific is influenced by a mix effect, with expectations for volume growth in emerging markets over time [62]

Core Insights - The global beverage industry is experiencing a transformation due to health awareness, changing consumer preferences, and technological advancements, prompting The Coca-Cola Company to redefine its portfolio and expand beyond traditional sodas to become a total beverage company [1] Product Strategy - Coca-Cola is focusing on healthier options, including low and no-sugar products, energy drinks, coffee, and beverages with functional ingredients, with brands like Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Diet Coke, and fairlife dairy-based beverages showing strong growth in Q2 2025 [2] - Innovations such as Sprite + Tea have been launched to enhance product offerings, contributing to a higher share of visible inventory and building on recent successes under the Sprite trademark [3] Marketing and Engagement - Initiatives like Coca-Cola Creations and digital-first campaigns under the "Real Magic" platform are driving consumer engagement and brand differentiation, positioning Coca-Cola as a total beverage company with a resilient strategy that integrates marketing, innovation, and revenue growth management [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors include PepsiCo and Monster Beverage, both of which are adapting their portfolios to align with consumer preferences for health and functionality [5][6][7] Financial Performance - Coca-Cola shares have gained 7.1% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 1.3% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.11X, higher than the industry average of 17.37X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coca-Cola's EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 8.2% for 2026, with stable estimates over the past 30 days [11]

Core Insights - The Coca-Cola Company (KO) reported steady revenue growth of $12.62 billion in Q2 2025, with a 5% organic sales increase, driven by sparkling soft drinks, hydration, and dairy-based beverages, but faces challenges from rising costs impacting profitability [1][9] - Commodity inflation, particularly in sweeteners, packaging materials, and logistics, is a major cost driver, leading to a contraction in gross margins despite pricing initiatives [2][9] - Coca-Cola's "all-weather" strategy aims to balance affordability in price-sensitive markets with premium innovations in developed economies, while packaging innovations are helping manage consumer affordability [3][4] Financial Performance - Coca-Cola's operating margin has narrowed due to cost inflation outpacing efficiency benefits, despite revenue growth [2][9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.02X, higher than the industry's 17.42X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KO's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 3.5% for 2025 and 8.3% for 2026, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past week [11] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper are also facing cost pressures but are leveraging pricing, productivity, and innovation to protect margins and sustain growth [5][6][7] - PepsiCo has managed to expand margins through strong price realization and operational savings, while Keurig is focusing on pricing actions and innovation to bolster growth [6][7] Brand Performance - Brands such as Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, fairlife, BODYARMOR, and Sprite are showing strong growth, indicating resilience in Coca-Cola's diversified portfolio despite inflationary pressures [3][9]

Core Insights - PepsiCo Inc. is well-positioned to adapt to changing consumer preferences despite inflationary pressures and shifting consumption habits, as evidenced by its strong second-quarter 2025 performance with revenues of $22.73 billion and earnings of $2.12 per share, surpassing estimates [1][9] Group 1: Portfolio and Growth Strategy - The ongoing portfolio transformation focuses on healthier snacks, no-sugar beverages, functional hydration, and protein-based innovations, with the "permissible" snack segment already reaching a $2 billion business [2] - International markets, particularly India and Latin America, are showing robust double-digit growth, contributing to overall expansion [2] - The company's strategy of balancing productivity savings with reinvestment in innovation and technology is expected to sustain its competitive edge [4] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - PepsiCo's diverse product offerings allow it to counterbalance declines in North American potato chips with strong sales in products like Gatorade and Propel [3] - The company has gained 9.2% in stock price over the past three months, outperforming the industry, which has seen a decline of 4% [8] - PepsiCo's forward price-to-earnings ratio is 17.17X, slightly below the industry average of 17.42X, indicating a competitive valuation [10] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PepsiCo's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 1.6%, while the 2026 estimate suggests a growth of 5.8% [11] - Recent EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have shown upward revisions in the past 30 days, reflecting positive market sentiment [11]

Core Insights - The Coca-Cola Company is achieving success by balancing global scale with local execution, reporting 5% year-over-year organic revenue growth in Q2 2025 despite a 1% volume decline, indicating strong pricing power and portfolio strength [1][8] - Coca-Cola has gained global value share for 17 consecutive quarters, driven by strong performance in brands like Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and Fanta [1] Regional Performance - Coca-Cola is performing well in Europe, Africa, and parts of Asia, with volume growth in Europe attributed to the Share a Coke campaign and strong sales of Coke Zero Sugar and Sprite [2] - In Africa, growth is seen in Egypt, Morocco, and Nigeria through refined pack-price strategies and bold marketing [2] - The company is also gaining share in volatile markets like Eurasia and the Middle East by focusing on local sourcing and affordability [2] Innovation and Strategy - Coca-Cola's ability to scale innovation is a competitive advantage, with recent product launches like Sprite + Tea and portfolio expansion in dairy through fairlife [3] - The company is leveraging digital platforms and AI-driven pack-price optimization to enhance execution, while refillable and mini-can strategies support both affordability and premiumization [3] - These initiatives reinforce Coca-Cola's "all-weather strategy," allowing for quick market pivots and sustainable growth amid economic uncertainty [3] Competitive Landscape - In the competitive beverage market, PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper are leveraging their strengths and strategic expansions to capture growth [4] - PepsiCo is focusing on productivity and innovation, with its Frito-Lay business stabilizing the category and beverages gaining ground [5] - Keurig is experiencing significant growth in U.S. Refreshment Beverages, with net sales rising nearly 11% in Q2, driven by core strengths and emerging categories [6] Financial Performance - Coca-Cola's shares have increased by 9.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's growth of 3.6% [7] - The company has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.72X, higher than the industry's 17.58X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coca-Cola's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 8.3% for 2026, with estimates remaining unchanged in the past week [10]