Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI upgraded Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) to Outperform and raised its price target to $65, citing improving traffic trends, effective growth initiatives, and a compelling stock valuation [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, TSCO's comparable store sales increased by 3.9% year over year, with transaction count up by 2.7% and average ticket size growing by 1.2% [1]. - Net sales for Q3 reached $3.72 billion, reflecting a 7.2% increase, compared to a 1.5% growth in comparable sales in Q2 [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - For Q4, TSCO anticipates comparable sales growth between 1% to 5%, with the midpoint aligning with its long-term growth algorithm [2]. - Management plans to open approximately 100 new stores in 2026, supported by 18 recently acquired Big Lots locations, alongside expected same-store sales growth of 3% to 5% [3]. Group 3: Company Profile - TSCO is recognized as the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the US, catering to farmers, ranchers, homeowners, and pet owners [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increased risk of cooking fires during Thanksgiving, highlighting the need for safety precautions in the kitchen [2][3]. Company Overview - Mercury Insurance (NYSE: MCY) is a multi-line insurance provider offering personal auto, homeowners, renters, and commercial insurance across various states, including Arizona, California, and Texas [4][5]. - The company has been operational since 1962, providing competitive rates and excellent customer service through over 4,200 employees and a network of more than 6,340 independent agents [5]. Safety Recommendations - The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reported a significant increase in home cooking fires on Thanksgiving Day, with 1,446 incidents in 2023, representing a 388% rise over the daily average [2]. - Key safety tips include never leaving cooking food unattended, establishing a three-foot kid-free zone, wearing close-fitting clothing, keeping flammable items away from heat, and having fire extinguishers and smoke alarms ready [3][7]. - Special caution is advised when using turkey fryers, which should be operated outdoors and away from the house [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent poor performance of certain stocks, highlighting the need for investors to discern between genuine buying opportunities and potential pitfalls in the market [1]. Group 1: Stocks to Sell - **FactSet (FDS)**: The stock has seen a one-month return of -5.7% and is currently trading at $261.06 per share, with a forward P/E ratio of 14.6x [2][3]. - **Kemper (KMPR)**: This stock has experienced a significant one-month return of -26.8%, trading at $36.43 per share with a forward P/B ratio of 0.8x [4][6]. Group 2: Stock to Watch - **Broadridge (BR)**: The stock has a one-month return of -7.3%. It has shown muted annual revenue growth of 5.5% over the last two years, with earnings growth lagging behind peers at an annual increase of 8.1% [7][8]. - Broadridge processes over $10 trillion in trades daily and manages proxy voting for over 800 million equity positions, providing technology-driven solutions for financial institutions [9]. - The company stands out due to its unique value proposition, achieving above-market annual sales growth of 8.9% over the last five years, an increase in free cash flow margin by 8.6 percentage points, and rising returns on capital [10].

Core Viewpoint - Defiance ETFs has launched the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LMND ETF (Ticker: LMNX), aimed at providing active traders with leveraged exposure to Lemonade, Inc. (NYSE: LMND), a company known for its innovative insurance technology solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The LMNX ETF seeks to deliver 200% of the daily percentage change in the share price of Lemonade, Inc., allowing investors to express short-term bullish views on the stock [2][3]. - The fund is designed for knowledgeable investors who understand the risks associated with leveraged investments and are willing to actively monitor their portfolios [6]. Group 2: Underlying Company - Lemonade, Inc. operates as a fully digital insurance company, offering various insurance products including renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance through licensed carriers in the U.S. and Europe [4]. - The company utilizes proprietary AI-driven software and automation to enhance efficiency in policy issuance, claims management, and customer interaction, thereby redefining the traditional insurance experience [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The fund employs a fixed-fee business model and relies on reinsurance agreements to manage underwriting risk and stabilize financial results [4]. - The LMNX ETF is not an investment in Lemonade, Inc. itself, but rather a financial instrument that seeks to leverage the performance of LMND [5].

Core Thesis - Lemonade, Inc. has achieved a historic milestone of $1 billion in-force premium (IFP) in just 8.5 years, making it the fastest insurer to reach this scale [2] - The company's Q2 2025 results show a 29% year-over-year IFP growth to $1.08 billion and a 35% increase in revenue, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of accelerating momentum [2] Financial Performance - Gross loss ratios improved by 12 points to 67% overall and by 13 points in auto to 82%, indicating effective underwriting and risk selection through its AI-driven model [3] - Management has reaffirmed a 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance of $135–$140 million, with expectations of sequential improvement each quarter [3] Competitive Advantage - Lemonade's AI-first platform allows for rapid claims processing, sometimes in under three seconds, and provides compounding data advantages [2] - The company's integrated architecture facilitates cross-selling synergies, margin expansion, and global scalability, distinguishing it from traditional insurers [4] Market Dynamics - The shift towards AI-first platforms in the insurance market positions Lemonade for accelerated growth and improving fundamentals, suggesting potential for durable market leadership [4] - The European business is scaling more efficiently than early U.S. operations, generating twice the new business per growth dollar [3] Historical Context - The stock price of Lemonade has appreciated approximately 90.07% since previous bullish coverage, reflecting the successful execution of its diversification strategy [5] - The current bullish thesis emphasizes the company's AI-driven scale and profitability trajectory, aligning with earlier positive assessments [5]

Core Insights - Mercury Insurance emphasizes the importance of storm preparedness to mitigate property damage and ensure family safety during severe weather events [2][3] - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that storms cause tens of billions of dollars in property damage annually in the U.S., with flooding being a significant contributor [3] Company Overview - Mercury Insurance is a multi-line insurance carrier offering personal auto, homeowners, renters, and commercial insurance across various states, including Arizona, California, and Texas [4][6] - The company has a strong network of over 6,340 independent agents and has received an "A" rating from A.M. Best, along with accolades for its auto insurance services [6] Storm Preparedness Checklist - Homeowners are advised to inspect roofs for damage, clean gutters, and check weatherproofing around windows and doors to prevent water intrusion [5] - It is recommended to ensure proper drainage around the foundation, test sump pumps, and secure outdoor items to minimize storm-related risks [5] - Emergency supplies such as flashlights, batteries, and non-perishable food should be kept on hand, and vehicles should be parked in safe locations to avoid flood damage [5] - Homeowners should review their insurance policies to confirm coverage for storm damage, particularly regarding flood insurance, which often requires a separate policy [5]

Core Insights - Lemonade is rapidly transforming the insurance industry by leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [2][5][6] - The company reported a significant increase in customer base and in-force premium, indicating strong business momentum [6][7] - Despite recent stock gains, Lemonade's stock price remains significantly below its peak, suggesting potential for future growth [3][14] Customer Growth - Lemonade's customer base reached a record 2.7 million by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase, up from 21% in the previous quarter [6] - The company operates in various insurance markets, including renters, homeowners, pet, life, and car insurance, utilizing AI chatbots for quick quotes and claims processing [5][6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Lemonade's in-force premium (IFP) hit a record $1.08 billion, representing a 29% year-over-year increase, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of accelerated IFP growth [7] - Revenue for Q2 reached $164.1 million, a 35% increase year-over-year, surpassing management's forecast of $158 million [11] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 by $50.5 million, from $662 million to $712.5 million, following strong Q2 results [11] Profitability and Losses - Lemonade reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $40.9 million in Q2, an improvement from the $43 million loss in the same period last year, indicating progress towards profitability [12] - The company maintains over $1 billion in liquidity, providing ample resources for continued investment in growth initiatives [13] Valuation and Future Outlook - Lemonade's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has decreased to 6.1, making the stock appear attractive compared to its peak of 90 during the tech frenzy in 2021 [14] - The company aims to grow its IFP to $10 billion over the next decade, suggesting significant long-term growth potential for investors [16]