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iFlytek Spark LLM V4.0 Turbo
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高盛:科大讯飞_2025 年第二季度业绩指引因人工智能模型开发未达标,收入预计同比增长 7%;评级中性
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for iFlytek (002230.SZ) with a 12-month price target of Rmb54.00, indicating an upside potential of 14.9% from the current price of Rmb46.98 [1][10][26]. Core Insights - iFlytek's 2Q25 revenue guidance is expected to grow by 10% to 15% year-over-year, with a midpoint growth of 11%, which is 7% below previous estimates. The company reported a net loss in 2Q25, attributed to increased spending on AI model development [1][18]. - The company has launched new AI models, including iFlytek Spark LLM V4.0 Turbo and a new reasoning model, which are expected to enhance its project wins in AI software [2][18]. - iFlytek secured a new project worth Rmb232 million from the QinHuangDao government for AI model training and management, indicating strong momentum in AI monetization [2][18]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for iFlytek are revised downwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of Rmb28,797 million in 2025, Rmb32,648 million in 2026, and Rmb38,794 million in 2027, reflecting a decrease of 1%, 3%, and 5% respectively from previous estimates [19][20]. - The report anticipates a net income of Rmb1,100 million in 2025, Rmb2,029 million in 2026, and Rmb3,316 million in 2027, with a downward revision of 24%, 23%, and 27% respectively [19][20]. - The operating margin is expected to improve from 2.3% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2026, and further to 8.1% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [11][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report sets a target price based on a valuation of 4.1x 2026E EV/Sales, which aligns with peer averages in the software sector. The implied 2026E P/E ratio is projected at 60x, consistent with the company's trading range since 2019 [20][26]. - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E of 98.7x for 2025, decreasing to 32.7x by 2027, and a P/B ratio of 5.8x in 2025, declining to 4.7x in 2027 [10][11].