距离苹果秋季发布会仅剩六周，今年iPhone 17系列的爆料已非常详细，业界的关注焦点逐渐转向明年 的新iPhone。 据多方消息，2026年将是苹果iPhone产品线重大更新的一年，除了常规迭代的iPhone 18，苹果还将推出 首款可折叠设备。 2026年9月推出，售价1999美元起 目前大部分消息源关于"折叠iPhone发布时间"的爆料出奇的统一，一致指向了明年年底。 近日，在摩根大通的最新研究报告中也再次确认了这一消息，并表示苹果首款折叠iPhone将于2026年9 月推出，而且是作为iPhone 18系列的一部分，两款产品同步发布。 同时，摩根大通还预测了折叠iPhone的价格，预计在1999美元（约合人民币1.4万元）起。这一预估价 位与此前多位苹果分析师预测的"2000美元"非常接近。 摩根大通表示，苹果首款折叠iPhone的推出，将对整个折叠屏手机市场起到推动作用。并预测2027年折 叠iPhone的销量预计在低千万级别，而到2028年有望达到约4500万部。 大折叠形态+内外双屏+无折痕设计 综合爆料消息，苹果首款折叠iPhone采用"大折叠"形态，类似于三星Galaxy Z Fold系列的 ...

Core Insights - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to launch in the second half of 2026, featuring a 5.5-inch outer screen and a 7.8-inch inner screen, which may reshape the foldable smartphone market [2] - Global foldable smartphone shipments are projected to reach 19.8 million units in 2025, with Samsung holding a leading market share of 35.4%, while Huawei follows closely with 34.3% [2] - Apple's entry into the foldable market could pose unprecedented challenges for Huawei, particularly in high-end user competition and technology standard setting [2] Group 1 - Apple's foldable iPhone will run on iOS 27, optimized for split-screen interaction and multi-tasking, allowing seamless integration with Mac and iPad devices [2] - The foldable iPhone's production capacity in its first year is expected to reach around 10 million units, with a price range of 14,000 to 20,000 yuan, targeting high-end business users [3] - Huawei's market share in China's 10,000 yuan smartphone segment is currently 72%, but Apple's entry may disrupt this advantage [3] Group 2 - The introduction of Apple's foldable iPhone may lead to a risk of high-end user attrition for Huawei, as Apple's ecosystem could attract users seeking comprehensive integration [3] - Despite Huawei's strengths in distributed capabilities with its HarmonyOS, Apple's iOS has a more mature developer ecosystem, which may result in higher application adaptation efficiency [4] - Huawei's market share in the European foldable smartphone market has increased from 12% in 2024 to 18%, but Apple's global brand influence could limit its expansion [4]

Core Insights - Apple is entering the foldable smartphone market as a "follower" rather than a leader, with its first foldable iPhone expected to launch by the end of 2026, following a market established by Samsung for seven years [1][2] - Unlike its previous groundbreaking products, Apple's entry into this market will not rely on revolutionary technology or design, but rather on a device similar to Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold series, with the OLED foldable screen supplied by Samsung Display [1][2] Group 1: Product Strategy - Apple's approach to the foldable smartphone will not introduce revolutionary interaction interfaces or hardware, but will aim to provide a similar experience to existing products, marking a rare follower position for a company known for leading trends [3] - The engineering team is focused on addressing long-standing weaknesses in foldable devices, such as minimizing screen creases and improving hinge durability and feel [3] - The upcoming iOS 27 will prioritize custom software features for the new device form factor to ensure a smooth user experience [3] Group 2: Market Positioning - Apple's foldable strategy is closely linked to its plans for the Chinese market, where local brands like Xiaomi and Huawei have already launched multiple foldable phones, with a preference for the "book-style" design [4] - The starting price of $2,000 aligns with the purchasing power of high-end Chinese consumers and may be a key factor in boosting sales in China [4] - Despite a lack of hardware innovation, Apple is expected to leverage its brand strength to tap into the market, as millions of iPhone users are reportedly waiting for a foldable product without wanting to switch to Android [4]