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存储行业迎来“超级牛市”?手机、笔电等终端产品被迫调价
Core Insights - The global storage industry has entered a "super bull market," surpassing the historical high of 2018, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and server expansion [1] - DRAM and NAND Flash suppliers have reached their highest bargaining power ever, with storage prices expected to rise significantly in the coming quarters [1] - The current price surge is attributed to a structural supply-demand mismatch rather than a short-term fluctuation, indicating a long-term trend [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of 64GB RDIMM server memory modules has skyrocketed from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with projections to reach $700 by March 2026, marking a nearly 175% increase within six months [1] - Major semiconductor companies are ramping up production, with packaging and testing firms like Tongfu Microelectronics and Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology reporting high order volumes and near-full capacity utilization [2] - Companies are actively expanding production capacities, with Tongfu Microelectronics planning to raise funds for storage chip packaging capacity enhancement [2] Cost Transmission to End Products - The rising costs of storage chips are being passed on to end products, leading to price increases in smartphones and laptops [4] - Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo, Dell, and HP have raised prices on various laptop models by 500 to 1500 yuan due to anticipated increases in memory prices [4] - The cost of storage chips is becoming a significant factor in the overall bill of materials (BOM) for devices, with estimates indicating that storage now accounts for over 30% of the BOM in some high-end models [5] Market Outlook - The AI-driven storage super cycle is expected to have strong sustainability, benefiting domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies [3] - The demand for high-bandwidth and large-capacity storage from AI servers and AIPC will continue to support market momentum, prompting manufacturers to restructure supply chain strategies [5] - The industry is likely to experience increased consolidation, with leading brands that excel in cost control and technology integration gaining a competitive edge [5]