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《“数智时代”的“服务革命”》——网经社独家专访国务院特殊津贴专家郑吉昌教授
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 10:00
Core Viewpoint - China has entered an era where the service economy and digital intelligence economy overlap, fundamentally changing the role and position of services in the economy [1] Group 1: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - In the 1990s, China's service output accounted for less than 30% of GDP, and academic research on the service sector was nearly non-existent [2] - Traditional economic theories struggled to explain the rapid development of the service sector, leading to a shift in focus towards service economy research [4] - The development of China's service sector must address three key questions: breaking the low-cost labor trap, reversing the service trade deficit, and empowering manufacturing upgrades through service innovation [4] Group 2: Current Trends and Economic Transformation - China is undergoing a historic transformation where the service economy and digital economy are merging, redefining the attributes of industries and consumer characteristics [5] - The integration of service and manufacturing sectors is accelerating, leading to the emergence of new industrial forms, with data becoming a core production factor [5] - Service consumption is now a significant driver of economic growth, with services being viewed as a binding industry within interconnected ecosystems [5] Group 3: Service Economy Research Framework - A three-dimensional framework for service economy research includes: 1. Value Dimension: Knowledge-intensive productive services contribute 3.2 times more to GDP than traditional services [6] 2. Structural Dimension: Transitioning from consumption-driven to production-driven service sectors can increase manufacturing profit margins by 0.6% for every 1% increase in productive services [6] 3. Institutional Dimension: Opening service markets requires overcoming barriers such as qualification recognition, data flow limitations, and regulatory standard discrepancies [6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Innovations - The impact of digital economy on service innovation is significant, with generative AI expected to enable 45% of knowledge work to be completed by AI agents by 2030 [8] - Blockchain technology is set to reshape trust mechanisms in fields like education and healthcare through verifiable services [8] - The metaverse is anticipated to create a multi-billion market for immersive services in remote work and virtual exhibitions [8] - The digital service deficit is a concern, with the share of digital services in China's service trade deficit rising from 18% in 2015 to an expected 39% in 2024 [8] Group 5: Role of Productive Services - Productive services are identified as a key component in global industrial chain competition, with their development being crucial for enhancing urban service functions [11] - The relationship between service industry growth and urban development is characterized by a positive interaction, with productive services acting as a "glue" that binds various sectors together [11] Group 6: Future Development and Humanization - The future of service innovation lies in the organic combination of humanized services and intelligent technologies, enhancing service efficiency and user experience [12] - The shift in consumer values towards quality of life and self-expression is driving changes in the service market [12]