Bond ETFs started the week on the back foot as investors positioned ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell to its lowest level in three months, even with futures markets assigning an 89% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points.TLT, one of the most interest rate-sensitive ETFs on the market, is now up 4.7% year-to-date, down from its October peak, when gains approached 9%. Markets Expect a “Last Cut” Tone The Fed cut rates twice ...

Core Insights - U.S.-listed ETFs attracted $147.7 billion in November, marking a significant total despite being lower than October's record of $176 billion. Year-to-date inflows reached $1.27 trillion, setting an annual record with one month remaining [1] - The current pace suggests that net creations for 2025 could exceed $1.4 trillion [1] Inflows by Category - U.S. equity ETFs led the inflows with $73.6 billion, followed by U.S. fixed income ETFs at $33.1 billion, international equity ETFs at $24.6 billion, and international fixed income ETFs at $10.7 billion. Currency ETFs experienced outflows of $3.8 billion, primarily due to cryptocurrency funds [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 experienced volatility, dropping 5.1% from peak to trough before recovering nearly all losses by month-end, finishing close to its starting point. The 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated, ending the month near 4.08% [3] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin and ether saw significant declines, with Bitcoin briefly falling to $80,000, approximately one-third below its October all-time high of $125,000 [4] Top Fund Performers - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) led all ETFs with nearly $21 billion in inflows for November, achieving a year-to-date total of almost $125 billion, a new annual record for any ETF [5] - In fixed income, the iShares 0–3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) were the top asset gatherers, attracting $5.5 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively. The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) led international equity ETFs with $4.6 billion in inflows [6] Top Outflows - The iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL), the iShares MBS ETF (MBB), and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced the largest outflows, with IBIT losing $2.4 billion and the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) shedding $1.1 billion [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bond ETFs experienced a decline following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which contradicted market expectations for a certain move [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% [1]. - Powell emphasized that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, highlighting differing views within the committee [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, futures markets reduced expectations for a December rate cut, with the probability dropping to about 66% from around 90% [2]. - Yields surged in response, with the 2-year Treasury yield increasing by 11 basis points to 3.6%, the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.07%, and the 30-year yield climbing by 7 basis points to 4.6% [3]. Group 3: Bond ETFs Performance - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell by 1%, while the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) decreased by 0.65% [3]. - The 10-year yield has remained near 4%, reflecting a bounce off this key level as investors processed Powell's remarks [3]. Group 4: Economic Considerations - Powell noted ongoing risks related to inflation and employment, mentioning the government shutdown as a challenge to the Fed's data-driven approach [4]. - Despite Powell's cautious stance, markets anticipate approximately three additional rate cuts between now and mid-2026, with future moves dependent on economic data [5].