semiglutide(司美格鲁肽)
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NVO Slides on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Case for Value Trade
Youtube· 2025-09-29 16:00
Core Viewpoint - Nova Nordisk's stock has been downgraded by Morgan Stanley from equal weight to underweight, with a new price target of $47, down from $59, marking the most pessimistic target among Wall Street analysts covering the company [2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Both Nova Nordisk and Eli Lilly stocks have declined over the past year, with Nova Nordisk down more than 35% [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a potential high single-digit percentage decline in share price due to expected negative results from ongoing tests of their semaglutide drug for dementia [4][5] - The company has about one-third of the global market share in branded diabetes and weight loss drug treatments, but analysts see limited upside potential due to declining sales and competition [7][8] Group 2: Prescription Growth and Competition - There is a noted slowdown in weight loss prescription growth in the U.S. market, with sales of Ozempic declining while Eli Lilly's weight loss drug, Mounjaro, is experiencing linear growth [6] - Morgan Stanley has lowered its consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook on Nova Nordisk's short-term growth prospects [7] Group 3: Analyst Insights and Trading Strategies - Some analysts believe there may be value in the stock at current levels, suggesting a potential rebound if positive data surprises the market [10][12] - A trading strategy involving options is proposed, indicating a cautious approach with a focus on downside protection while looking for potential gains [10][12]