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Eli Lilly's oral obesity treatment efficacy falls short of expectations, says BMO's Evan Seigerman
CNBC Television· 2025-08-07 22:13
Market Dynamics & Competition - Novo Nordisk's oral wegovy shows promising 16.6% weight loss with good tolerability, potentially shifting the oral market split [3][4] - The oral wegovy faces a "food effect" issue, requiring specific consumption conditions (fasting, water, waiting 30 minutes), potentially limiting its use to maintenance after initial weight loss with injectables [4][7] - Manufacturing costs for oral wegovy are higher due to the larger peptide dosage (25mg) compared to the weekly injectable (2.4mg) [7] - The weight loss drug space is experiencing pricing headwinds and some pricing concessions, potentially influenced by the CVS exclusive deal [8][9] Company Performance & Expectations - Lilly's stock experienced a significant drop (down 14%) due to data expectations being set too high (above 15% efficacy), raising questions about the long-term strength of their franchise [1][2] - There was a disconnect between Novo Nordisk's positive presentation of their data (27 pounds average weight loss) and the market's expectations [9] - Companies need to learn from competitors' successes and failures in managing expectations and messaging around drug data [13]
CVS drops Lilly's Zepbound
CNBC Television· 2025-07-01 18:53
Market Dynamics & Competitive Landscape - CVS, through its PBM (Pharmacy Benefit Manager), is preferring Wegovy over Zepbound (Lilly) due to interchangeability and leveraging its coverage of millions of lives to negotiate better economic deals [1][3] - Lilly downplays the impact, stating only about 200,000 patients will be affected [5] - The shift is happening because drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound cost about $1,000 per month [3] PBM Strategy & Negotiation - PBMs negotiate drug prices in bulk, covering potentially tens of millions of lives, to bring prices down [4][5] - The prices are confidential, but some discount is surely involved [4] - Pharmacy benefits managers negotiate prices in bulk for millions of people [4] Patient Impact & Access - Patients have been scrambling to refill prescriptions, potentially seeking 90-day supplies, due to the change [6] - Patients are trying to determine if they are still covered, can get the drug at a discounted price, or qualify for a medical exemption [6]