Equity Research European Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences 27 December 2024 Novo Nordisk Weekly US diabetes & obesity market tracker Implications for Novo in 4Q24: IQVIA data reported 7.60mn/0.78mn/2.69mn TRx for Ozempic/ Rybelsus and Wegovy, respectively, in 3Q24. Based on the weekly data QTD and conservatively assuming flat to 1% w/w growth for the balance of the quarter, we expect 4Q24 total written scripts to come in at ~7.64mn/ 0.75mn/ 2.90mn for Ozempic/Rybelsus/Wegovy (+0.5% /-3.7% / +7.8% growth q/q). ...

Summary of Fund Flow Insights - December 27, 2024 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the equity fund flows in both Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) as of December 27, 2024, highlighting significant outflows and inflows across various regions and fund types. Key Points Fund Flows - **Total Outflow from Equity Funds**: There was a significant outflow of **US$26.6 billion** from equity funds in the week leading up to Christmas, primarily driven by **US ETFs** which experienced **US$38.7 billion** in net redemptions [22][23]. - **Bond Funds Inflow**: In contrast, bond funds saw an inflow of **US$2.1 billion** during the same period [22]. - **Global Funds Inflow**: Despite the outflows in equity funds, global funds enjoyed an inflow of **US$7.5 billion** [22]. - **Money Market Funds**: European money market funds faced an outflow of **US$11.7 billion** last week, contributing to a total outflow of **US$42.5 billion** over the past three weeks [22]. Regional Insights - **Emerging Markets**: EM funds experienced an outflow of **US$1.1 billion**, with **US$1.3 billion** leaving China funds for the second consecutive week. However, GEM funds had a small inflow of **US$0.7 billion** [2]. - **Asia Markets**: The Asia markets saw significant foreign selling, with Korea experiencing **US$0.7 billion** in net foreign outflow, and Japan facing **US$3.1 billion** in foreign selling [23]. - **North America**: North American equity funds faced substantial outflows, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the region [22]. Performance Metrics - **Equity Fund Performance**: The report includes various performance metrics, indicating a negative trend in equity fund flows compared to bond funds, which have shown resilience [22][32]. - **Market Allocation**: The estimated flows into a market's equity market are calculated by taking the fund flow into a fund group and multiplying it by the group's market allocation [42]. Additional Insights - **ETF vs Non-ETF Flows**: The report highlights the performance of ETFs versus non-ETFs, indicating a trend where ETFs are more susceptible to redemptions compared to non-ETF funds [22][53]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report provides a 52-week cumulative view of fund flows, showing the ongoing shifts in investor preferences between equity and bond markets [34][39]. Conclusion - The current fund flow dynamics indicate a cautious sentiment among investors, particularly in equity markets, with significant outflows from US ETFs and a contrasting inflow into bond funds. The trends observed in the Asia markets and the overall performance metrics suggest a need for investors to reassess their strategies in light of these developments.

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The report focuses on **Asia Vital Components (AVC)**, a company involved in the thermal solutions industry, particularly in air and liquid cooling products. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Revised Estimates for 1Q25**: The estimates for 1Q25 have been revised downwards due to delays in the shipment schedule of GB200 components, predicting a **5% quarter-over-quarter decline** compared to the Bloomberg consensus of **+2%** [2][10] 2. **Long-term Outlook**: Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook for **2H25 and 2026** remains positive, with estimates largely unchanged at this moment, pending further monitoring of potential delays in GB200 shipments [2][10] 3. **Earnings Growth Potential**: The price target for December 2025 is set at **NT$888**, based on a **23x 2026E P/E**, reflecting stronger earnings growth potential and design wins in both air and liquid cooling projects [7][10] 4. **Financial Performance**: - **2023A**: Revenue of **NT$59,194 million** - **2024E**: Revenue of **NT$71,728 million** - **2025E**: Revenue of **NT$100,476 million** - **2026E**: Revenue of **NT$115,514 million** [3][10] 5. **Profit Margins**: - **EBIT margin** is projected to improve from **12.5% in FY23A** to **19.6% in FY26E**. - **Net margin** is expected to rise from **9.0% in FY23A** to **12.9% in FY26E** [10][11] 6. **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth year-over-year is expected to be **5.7% in FY23A**, **21.2% in FY24E**, **40.1% in FY25E**, and **15.0% in FY26E** [10][11] - Adjusted EPS growth is projected at **20.8% in FY23A**, **52.5% in FY24E**, **43.2% in FY25E**, and **23.9% in FY26E** [10][11] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Key Risks**: - Potential cooling-off of AI sentiment impacting valuation - Yield issues for new capacity/products - Delays in new product launches by customers - Increasing competition as the thermal market expands [16][10] 2. **Market Performance**: The company has shown a **YTD performance of 89.0%** and a **12-month performance of 105.5%**, indicating strong market interest [5][10] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: - The **FCFF yield** is projected to increase from **2.5% in FY23A** to **6.8% in FY26E**. - The **dividend yield** is expected to rise from **0.9% in FY23A** to **2.1% in FY26E** [10][11] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding AVC's financial outlook, growth potential, and associated risks in the thermal solutions industry.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 December 2024 See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Important Disclosures Th ...

27 Dec 2024 06:51:23 ET │ 10 pages 1,417 Games Approved in 2024; 122/13 Domestic/Imported Games in Dec; 2 Games Each for Tencent & NetEase | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | Alicia Yap, CFA AC +852-2501-2773 alicia.yap@citi.com | | | | Nelson Cheung +852-2501-2728 nelson.cheung@citi.com | | | Highlights from domestic game batch and amendment note – 109/11/1/1 mobile/cross-platform/PC/console games were approved, including: 1) Anant ...

Exhibit 6: ChiNext turnover (scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low levels since January 2014) vs. CSI 300 Exhibit 7: Equity futures turnover (vs. three months ago; scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low 300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-14Oct-14May-15Dec-15Jul-16Feb-17Sep-17Apr-18Nov-18Jun-19Jan-20Aug-20Mar-21Oct-21May-22Dec-22Jul-23Feb-24Sep-24 RSI-30D* CSI300 (RHS) -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Ma ...

Summary of US REITs & Lodging Fund Flow Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and lodging sectors, analyzing fund flows and market trends as of December 26, 2024 Key Points Fund Flows - Total estimated weekly outflows from the US market reached approximately $743 million, with a total of $6.9 billion in outflows for 2024 [5][6][24] - US-registered mutual funds reported outflows of about $9.3 billion in 2024, following outflows of $10.7 billion in 2023 and $14.0 billion in 2022 [24] - US-registered ETFs experienced inflows of approximately $2.1 billion in 2024, indicating a mixed performance within the REIT sector [6][24] Japanese Fund Flows - Japanese-registered mutual funds saw outflows of around $2.9 billion from the US market in 2024, following a trend of fluctuating inflows and outflows over the previous years [4][12] - Total gross outflows from Japan were approximately $161 million in the last week, with US-focused funds contributing to this decline [7] Non-Traded REITs - Non-traded REITs raised about $5.0 billion year-to-date in 2024, but faced redemption requests totaling approximately $8.6 billion [8] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the over-distribution of dividends from Japan funds has added selling pressure, contributing to total net outflows of approximately $8.1 billion in 2024 [5][6] - The US REIT sector has experienced significant outflows, with a total of $6.9 billion year-to-date, indicating a challenging environment for real estate investments [6][24] Historical Context - The report provides a historical perspective on fund flows, showing a pattern of outflows in recent years, with notable inflows in 2021 and 2014 [24] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring fund flows as a key indicator of market sentiment and potential investment opportunities within the REIT sector [5][6] - The analysis includes detailed figures on assets under management (AUM) and the performance of various fund types, providing a comprehensive view of the current state of the market [3][12][24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the report, focusing on fund flows, market dynamics, and historical trends within the US REITs and lodging sectors.

27 December 2024 | 1:35PM HKT | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Bottom line: | Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 \| chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. | | China's industrial profi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Date**: December 26, 2024 Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Spending**: Preliminary retail spending estimates for December show an increase of **0.76% MoM**, accelerating from last month's reported **0.20% MoM** [2] - **Core CPI**: The UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast expects the core CPI to stabilize with an increase of **0.20% MoM**, which is below the US Economics team's preliminary estimate of a **28 basis points** increase [2] - **Headline CPI**: The Nowcast indicates a headline CPI (seasonally adjusted) MoM increase of **0.30%**, influenced by higher energy prices, while the US Economics team's preliminary estimate for headline CPI is a **38 basis points** increase [2] - **Airfares**: There is a noted deceleration in airfares compared to the previous month, while rent CPI continues to increase MoM at a stable rate [2] Trade Dynamics - **Exports and Imports**: Both exports and imports in China are projected to have similar year-over-year growth in December [3] - **Nowcasting Methodology**: The China Nowcasting: Import and Export Value Monitor utilizes non-traditional big data, including maritime and air freight volume data, to model import and export values in USD and their YoY growth [27] Economic Indicators - **ISM Manufacturing Index**: The Nowcast projects the ISM manufacturing composite index to be at **48.0**, aligning with consensus expectations [24] - **Industrial Production**: Overall industrial production is forecasted to decrease by **220 basis points MoM** (seasonally adjusted) for December, with total industrial production YoY estimated at **-0.1%**, an improvement from last month's reported **-0.9% YoY** [24] Additional Insights - **UBS Evidence Lab**: The UBS Evidence Lab is a sell-side team that creates insight-ready datasets, which have been utilized by UBS Research analysts since 2014 to produce thousands of differentiated research reports [5] - **Data Availability**: The Nowcasting data is often available weeks before official government data releases, providing timely insights into economic conditions [27] Important but Overlooked Content - **Analyst Independence**: Analysts responsible for the report certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are prepared independently, ensuring objectivity in the analysis [30] - **Investment Risks**: The document emphasizes that investments involve risks and that past performance is not indicative of future results, urging investors to seek personalized advice [19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the China Industrials sector and relevant economic indicators, while also highlighting the methodologies and insights provided by UBS Evidence Lab.

Summary of Key Points from Goldman Sachs US Economics Analyst Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economic outlook, particularly regarding government spending, corporate tax rates, trade policies, and their implications for inflation and monetary policy. Key Points Government Spending Cuts - 42% of investors expect insignificant or modest spending cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) [1] - 19% anticipate cuts between $25 billion and $100 billion, while 32% expect cuts exceeding $100 billion, equating to 0.3% of GDP annually [1] Corporate Tax Rate Expectations - Approximately 60% of investors expect a decline in the statutory corporate tax rate [3] - The current expectation is that the broad statutory corporate tax rate will remain at 21%, but the rate for domestic manufacturers may be reduced to 15% [3] Trade Policy and Tariffs - Anticipated increases in tariff rates on imports from China by an average of 20 percentage points, with higher rates for non-consumer goods [7] - Nearly 60% of investors expect only increased tariffs on imports from China, while about 40% foresee a universal 10-20% tariff [8] - The average probability assigned to the implementation of a universal tariff is around 35% [12] Policy Risks - The primary concern among investors is the risks associated with tariffs, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by fiscal sustainability concerns at 20% [14] - A potential universal tariff could raise inflation to approximately 3% at its peak and reduce GDP growth by 0.75-1.25 percentage points [18] Inflation Expectations - Investors expecting a universal tariff anticipate higher inflation, with 55% expecting core PCE inflation of 2.6% or higher [18] - The report indicates that a 10% universal tariff would have a one-time effect on inflation, but the overall impact on the economy would be manageable [24] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may implement consecutive rate cuts through Q1 2025, with a total of two final cuts expected in June and September [23] - The market is perceived to be pricing a shallower rate cut path than what is expected by Goldman Sachs [22] Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is projected to be 2.5% in 2023, with a gradual decline to 2.1% by Q4 2025 [36] - Consumer expenditures are expected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2023, with a slight decrease in subsequent years [36] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is projected to be around 3.7% by Q4 2025, with underemployment at 7.1% [36] - Payroll growth is expected to average around 150,000 monthly [36] Conclusion - The report highlights significant investor concerns regarding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and economic growth, while also providing a cautious outlook on monetary policy adjustments in response to these changes [14][18][22]