5 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Metals & Mining 19 December 2024 Citi Research of Citi Research management not to assign a target price and, thus, not derive an ETR. Citi Research may suspend its rating and target price and assign "Rating Suspended" status for regulatory and/or internal policy reasons. Citi Research may also suspend its rating and target price and assign "Under Review" status for other exceptional circumstances (e.g. lack of information critical to the analyst's thesis, trading suspen ...

Summary of Datacenter Market Insights, Part 2 – ODM Direct Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Datacenter Market**, specifically the **ODM Direct** segment, which includes major players like **Foxconn**, **Wiwynn**, **Inventec**, **Quanta**, and **Wistron** [3][40]. Key Insights 1. **Shipment Growth**: - ODM direct shipments increased by **2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** and **16% year-over-year (y/y)**, totaling **1.33 million units** in **3Q24** [3][40]. - Global server shipments reached **3.7 million units**, reflecting a **1% q/q** and **19% y/y** growth, with ODM direct accounting for **36.4%** of total shipments, up from **36.0%** in **2Q24** [3][40]. 2. **Market Share Dynamics**: - **Foxconn** led the ODMs with a **24.6%** market share, followed closely by **Wiwynn** at **24.4%**. Other players included **Inventec** at **21.2%** and **Quanta** at **16.8%** [3][42]. - **Wiwynn** saw the most significant increase in unit share, gaining **640 basis points (bps)** q/q [3][42]. 3. **Shipment Value**: - The value of ODM direct server shipments was **US$28.9 billion**, marking a **41% q/q** and **132% y/y** increase [3][40]. 4. **Regional Performance**: - The **Rest of World (RoW)** region exhibited the highest growth at **74% y/y**, followed by the **USA** at **20% y/y**, and **Western Europe** at **12% y/y**. However, **Japan** experienced a decline of **13% y/y** [3][40]. 5. **CPU Vendor Market Share**: - In **3Q24**, **Intel** held a **42.9%** share of the CPU market within ODM direct shipments, while **AMD** had **38.1%** and other Arm-based vendors accounted for **19.0%** [22][25]. 6. **Future Projections**: - The report anticipates a significant ramp-up in **AI server** demand, particularly with **GB200 racks** expected to increase from **500 racks in 4Q24** to **5-10k racks in 2Q25** [3][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a preference for investing in ODMs over component manufacturers, specifically recommending **Hon Hai**, **FII**, **Wiwynn**, **Wistron**, and **Quanta** based on their performance and market positioning [3][40]. Additional Considerations - The recovery in server demand is primarily driven by cloud demand, while enterprise demand remains stable but subdued [3][40]. - The report highlights potential risks, including competition in the mega data center segment and slower-than-expected AI server penetration [3][40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call regarding the ODM direct segment of the datacenter market, providing a comprehensive overview of current trends, market dynamics, and future expectations.

shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 continue to deliver solid growth with channel penetration increase, while seeing less 2025. 4) By consumption scenario, company is developing the banquets market shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 19 December 2024 | 4:00PM HKT (Rmb1.5bn in 2024, 20% yoy sales growth in 1H24 and slowdown in 3Q24); T68 to negative impact from shipment control of customized non-standard products in shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： The following are additional required disclosures: Ow ...

First Read: China Property 19 December 2024 ab 12 shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 First Read: China Property 19 December 2024 ab 13 Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report. For a complete set of disclosure statements associated with the companies discussed in this report, including information on valuation and risk, please contact UBS Securities LLC, 1285 Avenue of Americas, New York, NY 10019, USA, Attention: Investment R ...

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Charting the course: preliminary 2025 outlook and November review of pricing and volume trends shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------- ...

shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 Analysts' compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup's senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the "Firm"). Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales ...

shuinu9870 Exhibit 8 - Recent & Forecasted Results as a % of Rolling 10-Yr Average - Advisory . 80% 100% 120% 140% 0% 20% 40% 60% . 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% shuinu9870 Source: Company data, Jefferies, Visible Alpha Consensus as of 12/17/24 for JPM/BAC/C, JEFe for GS/MS Reopening of Capital Markets Critical for Alts - Much of the Alternative's expected ~27% distributable earnings growth in 2025 hinges on the reopening of capital markets. Years of subdued capital markets activity and depres ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: China Entertainment, specifically focusing on short and mini dramas. * **Key Company**: Hongguo Drama (ByteDance Group), a free short drama app. * **Analyst Firm**: Goldman Sachs China Entertainment. Key Points 1. **Rapid Growth of Short and Mini Drama Industry**: * The short and mini drama industry has experienced significant growth, with a TAM of RMB 50 billion in 2024E, surpassing the domestic box office of the movie industry. * The industry is expected to grow at a 22% CAGR from 2024 to 2027E, reaching RMB 91 billion by 2027E. * The format is gaining popularity due to its convenience, affordability, and diverse content offerings. 2. **Monetization Model Shift**: * The monetization model is shifting from In-App Purchase (IAP) to In-App Advertising (IAA), with IAA expected to account for 70% of total revenue by 2027E. * The freemium model, particularly with Hongguo Drama, is becoming increasingly popular, driven by its free access and ad-supported content. 3. **Key Players and Value Chain**: * Key players include short drama producers, advertising platforms (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou, Tencent), and content producers/IP owners. * Advertising platforms, particularly Douyin and Kuaishou, are expected to benefit significantly from the rising short drama TAM and advertising spend. * Producers typically earn around 12% of total revenue, with the majority of revenue going to advertising platforms for marketing and user acquisition. 4. **Overseas Opportunities**: * The overseas short drama market is still in its early stages, with the US being the largest market. * The overseas TAM is expected to reach over US$10 billion with 200-300 million users in the future. * Challenges include enriching localized content offerings and improving profitability due to higher production costs in overseas regions. 5. **Impact on Long-Form Video (LFV) Platforms**: * The rise of short and mini dramas is gaining time share and may affect content consumption habits, potentially challenging LFV incumbents like IQ and Mango. * LFV platforms are increasingly introducing mini and short dramas to their content libraries to stay competitive. Potential Winners and Losers * **Winners**: * Advertising platforms (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou, Tencent) * Short drama producers * Hongguo Drama (ByteDance Group) * **Losers**: * LFV platforms (e.g., IQ, Mango) * Traditional LFV producers

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Chemical New Materials** sector, focusing on companies like **Tinci Materials**, **Beijing SinoHytec**, and **Valiant Co.** [6][10][14] Company Insights Tinci Materials - Tinci is the largest global producer of **LiPF6** and electrolytes by capacity, with a highly integrated value chain that enhances cost competitiveness [6] - The company is expanding production capacity internationally and has developed additional battery materials such as **LiFSI** and electrolyte additives [6] Beijing SinoHytec - SinoHytec is a leading manufacturer of **fuel cell systems** in China, with strong R&D capabilities and partnerships with major commercial vehicle manufacturers [10] - The company has seen a rebound in market share to approximately **30%** in 2024, despite intense competition [110] - Forecasts indicate a **30% revenue CAGR** for SinoHytec from 2024 to 2026, with cash flow expected to break even by 2026 [110] Valiant Co. - Valiant's OLED material subsidiaries reported significant revenue growth, with **Gem Chemicals** at **Rmb490 million** (+35% YoY) and **Sunera** at **Rmb70 million** (+92% YoY) in H124 [14] - The **Penglai Industrial Park project** is expected to generate annual revenue of **Rmb10.6 billion** at full capacity [14] Market Dynamics - The **LiPF6** sector is projected to see a **20%** increase in demand and a **12%** increase in supply in 2025, indicating a potential recovery in prices after a trough [38] - The electrolyte industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization at the **26th percentile** of its five-year history, suggesting a recovery in prices is likely in H225 [38] Competitive Landscape - Despite nearly a hundred participants in the fuel cell market, the **CR10** (concentration ratio) remains high at **60-80%**, indicating a few dominant players [111] - The competitive advantages for leading electrolyte producers include in-house raw material production and capabilities for overseas expansion [38] Financial Performance and Projections - **Huaheng Biotechnology** has seen a significant drop in share price, down nearly **60% YTD**, primarily due to a **37% YoY** decline in the price of its main product, valine [44] - The company expects a ramp-up in sales for new products like **PDO** and **malic acid** in 2024-25, despite recent earnings cuts [44] Future Outlook - The conference call indicates a positive outlook for the **fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV)** market, with expected sales volume growth of **45%** in 2025, driven by favorable policies and cost parity with diesel [110] - The hydrogen market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations for **H2** to claim **10%** of China's energy consumption by 2060 [110] Conclusion - The China Chemical New Materials sector is poised for recovery and growth, with key players like Tinci and SinoHytec leading the way in their respective markets. The anticipated recovery in prices and demand, along with strategic expansions, positions these companies favorably for future performance [38][110]

shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： China CXO shuinu9870 be passed (see our earlier note), it is always possible that another bill targeting China CXO is proposed. • We expect the US Department of Defense (DoD) to submit a biotechnology assessment report to Congress by June 15, with some content related to China. As noted in the past, we believe such a report will include an assessment of China's biotechnology capabilities. Though we don't know when or whether ...