Key Takeaways Industry Overview * **Security Software Demand Remains Strong**: Despite macroeconomic challenges, demand for security software remains robust. This is driven by the increasing volume and severity of cyber threats, the growing importance of data security, and the shift towards digital transformation. * **Platformization Trend**: The trend of consolidating security solutions into a single platform continues to gain momentum. This is driven by the need for simplicity, efficiency, and cost savings. * **M&A Activity Accelerating**: M&A activity in the security software industry is accelerating, with both strategic and financial buyers seeking to expand their capabilities and market share. Company-Specific Outlook * **CyberArk (CYBR)**: CYBR remains a strong pick with a favorable competitive environment, expanding margins, and potential for long-term margin expansion and cash flow generation. * **SentinelOne (S)**: S is well-positioned for growth as a sustainable profitable emerging competitor with a compelling setup for 2025. * **Okta (OKTA)**: OKTA is a leader in IAM and a primary beneficiary of the growing strategic importance of Identity Security. * **CrowdStrike (CRWD)**: CRWD is expected to reaccelerate growth and profitability following the July 19th outage. * **Palo Alto Networks (PANW)**: PANW is well-positioned to consolidate share within several of the largest and highest priority enterprise security markets. * **Zscaler (ZS)**: ZS is a leader in SSE/SASE markets and a beneficiary of enterprise spending and vendor consolidation. * **Tenable (TENB)**: TENB is well-positioned for better growth, as the company continues to take share at the expense of its VM-related peers. * **Fortinet (FTNT)**: FTNT is well-positioned to benefit from a firewall refresh cycle in FY26 but faces near-term headwinds. * **Check Point (CHKP)**: CHKP is well-positioned for Hybrid Cloud and Digital Transformation growth but faces valuation challenges. * **N-able (NABL)**: NABL is still relatively early with platform expansion efforts but faces near-term headwinds. * **Rapid7 (RPD)**: RPD is well-aligned with elevated SecOps and Cloud Security demand but faces execution challenges. * **Varonis (VRNS)**: VRNS is delivering better than expected execution with its SaaS transition and is well-positioned for growth. * **Qualys (QLYS)**: QLYS is targeting TAM expansion but faces challenges with customer/revenue growth. * **CS Disco (LAW)**: LAW is facing execution challenges and a lack of profitability. Sector Themes * **Securing AI**: The rise of Generative AI presents new security challenges and opportunities. Security software companies are developing solutions to secure AI across the infrastructure, data, model, access, and outputs. * **Data Security**: Data security is becoming increasingly important, driven by the growing volume of data and the increasing number of data breaches. * **Convergence of Cyber and Physical**: The convergence of cyber and physical security is blurring the lines between the two domains and creating new opportunities for security software companies. * **Cloud Security**: Cloud security remains one of the fastest-growing segments within security, driven by the shift towards cloud computing. * **SASE/SSE**: Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and Secure Service Edge (SSE) are gaining momentum as solutions for securing hybrid networks. Valuation and Fundamentals * **Profitability Matters**: Companies with strong unit economics and embedded operating leverage are well-positioned to deliver better gross margins and LTV. * **Platformization**: Companies with strong platform capabilities are well-positioned to deliver greater levels of margin expansion and FCF growth. * **M&A Activity**: M&A activity can provide a significant boost to growth and profitability. Conclusion The security software industry remains a strong investment opportunity with a healthy demand backdrop, reasonable expectations, and a number of attractive setups for better than expected execution. Companies with strong platform capabilities, a focus on profitability, and the ability to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions are well-positioned to succeed.

North America Equity Research 16 December 2024 J P M O R G A N CrowdStrike (CRWD) • Our Bull case is centered on a bottom-up analysis by product segment. We expect CRWD will continue to gain market share within its endpoint market while taking meaningful share with emerging products. CrowdStrike grew its Endpoint market share by 30bp in CY23 (FY24) according to IDC and our bull-case scenario considers that CRWD's endpoint market share can grow to 25.0% in FY27, assuming that we'll see capitulation from ente ...

Jefferies Equity Research December 16, 2024 Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 13 - 17 of this report. Jefferies Solar glass (SG): Per SCI, 3.2/2.0mm prices stayed RMB19.0-19.5/11.5-12.0 per m2. SG production capacity stayed at 94,890t/d. Inventory days decreased by 1.88% WoW to 34.87d. Per SCI, SG GPM in Nov'24 plunged by 14.02 pct MoM to -19.46%, with SG price retreat on sluggish demand and natural gas price ...

Summary of HKEx Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) [1][3][19]. Core Points and Arguments - **Long-term Trading Activity Support**: Several factors are expected to support trading activity in capital markets from a long-term perspective [1]. - **Revenue Challenges**: Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the new US administration's policies and potential tariff hikes, pose risks to HKEx's revenue [3]. - **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue expectations for HKEx are projected to increase by 2.7% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, driven by higher average daily volume (ADV) assumptions [4][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Adjustments**: EPS forecasts have been raised by 4% for 2024, 6.9% for 2025, and 7.4% for 2026 due to increased revenue expectations [4][8]. - **Market Capitalization Growth**: Market cap growth is expected to be -25.6% in 2022, -5.9% in 2023, and then recover to 5.0% in 2024, 12.0% in 2025, and 15.0% in 2026 [7]. - **Price Target Adjustments**: The price target for HKEx has been raised to HK$310, reflecting a more favorable economic outlook [8][19]. Financial Metrics - **Average Daily Volume (ADV)**: Projected ADV is HK$135 billion for 2024 and HK$150 billion for 2025, with a velocity of 93% and 92% respectively [10][12]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: Total revenues are expected to reach HK$22,890 million in 2024, HK$23,767 million in 2025, and HK$25,301 million in 2026 [8][17]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The EBITDA margin is projected to be 72.3% in 2024 and 73.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 25.55% in 2024 [21][22]. Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: Rising geopolitical uncertainties could negatively impact revenue and trading activity [3][19]. - **Market Conditions**: The potential for a sharp pickup in market conditions and IPO activity is noted as a risk to the downside [24]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Changes in regulations affecting IPOs and market liquidity could pose risks to revenue [24]. Additional Insights - **Investment Drivers**: The call highlights the importance of market turnover, IPO listings, and recurring listing fees as key drivers of revenue [24]. - **Consensus Rating**: The consensus rating distribution indicates a majority overweight position on HKEx, with a significant portion of analysts maintaining a positive outlook [19][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the HKEx conference call, providing insights into the company's performance, forecasts, and the broader market context.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global mining sector**, with a focus on **Australian miners** and their financial metrics, valuations, and market performance [4][7][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Growth**: In November 2024, pure EV sales in China increased by **30% year-over-year (YoY)**, indicating strong demand in the EV sector [2]. - **Investment Activity**: Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners announced the acquisition of a **49% stake** in Onslow Iron Road Trust, which is linked to the Onslow Iron ore project, highlighting ongoing investment in mining infrastructure [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes various valuation multiples and key metrics for ASX miners, indicating a range of **EV/EBITDA** ratios from **4.0x to 27.3x** for different companies, reflecting diverse financial health and market positioning [4][41]. - **EBITDA Margins**: The EBITDA margins for ASX miners are presented, with some companies showing margins as high as **27.3%** [8][28]. - **Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield**: The next 12-month FCF yield for the mining sector is discussed, with averages around **2.0x** to **3.0x**, indicating potential for cash generation [12][33]. Additional Important Information - **Commodity Revenue Exposure**: The report outlines the revenue exposure of Australian miners to various commodities, emphasizing the importance of diversification in revenue streams [11][12]. - **Market Capitalization and Ratings**: The document provides a detailed table of various mining companies, including their market capitalization, target prices, and consensus ratings, which are crucial for investors assessing potential investments [42][43]. - **Relative Performance Metrics**: The relative performance of mining stocks compared to industrials is analyzed, showing trends in **P/E ratios**, **dividend yields**, and **return on equity (ROE)** over time [31][32][39]. - **Future Projections**: The report includes projections for 2024 to 2026, with estimates for revenue, EBITDA, and other financial metrics, which are essential for forecasting future performance [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the mining industry, financial metrics, and market dynamics that are critical for investment analysis.

Summary of Chinese Media (600373 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Chinese Media - **Industry**: Media - **Current Rating**: Downgraded to Reduce from Buy - **Target Price**: Reduced to RMB 8.40 from RMB 18.70 Key Financial Metrics - **2023 Revenue**: CNY 10,084 million - **2024 Revenue Estimate**: CNY 8,574 million (down 21.4% from previous estimate) - **2025 Revenue Estimate**: CNY 7,676 million (down 33.9% from previous estimate) - **2026 Revenue Estimate**: CNY 8,188 million (down 32.8% from previous estimate) - **2024 Net Profit Estimate**: CNY 915 million (down 52.0% from previous estimate) - **2025 Net Profit Estimate**: CNY 1,015 million (down 50.2% from previous estimate) - **2026 Net Profit Estimate**: CNY 1,429 million (down 34.4% from previous estimate) [4][44] Core Points and Arguments - **Revenue Pressure**: Revenue from textbooks and supplementary teaching materials is under pressure due to a policy change in Jiangxi Province, where centralized purchasing by schools has been discontinued since autumn 2024 [2][13][42]. - **Earnings Estimates**: The company's earnings estimates have been significantly lowered due to the impact of the policy change, with a projected CAGR of pre-tax profit at 6% for 2024-26, which is below the industry average of 13% [13][46]. - **Valuation Concerns**: The stock is currently trading at a 19x 2025e forward PE, which is above the industry average of 17x, indicating that the stock may be overvalued [13][46]. - **Tax Benefits**: The company is expected to enjoy tax benefits starting in 2025 due to preferential tax treatment for cultural enterprises, leading to a significant reduction in income tax rates [21][13]. Financial Ratios and Changes - **Gross Margin**: Lowered gross margin estimates for 2024-26 by 2.5ppt, 2.1ppt, and 0.9ppt to 40.6%, 40.1%, and 41.3% respectively [20]. - **Expense Ratios**: Increased selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios due to lower revenue estimates [43]. - **Market Capitalization**: Current market cap is CNY 18,993 million (USD 2,613 million) [14]. Risks and Opportunities - **Risks**: The primary risk is the continued pressure on textbook sales due to the policy change, which could lead to further revenue declines [42]. - **Opportunities**: Potential for recovery in the textbook business if the company can adapt its sales strategy to target students directly, and growth in the overseas gaming market could provide additional revenue streams [51]. Conclusion - The downgrade to Reduce reflects significant downward revisions in revenue and profit estimates due to policy changes affecting the core business of Chinese Media. The company faces challenges in adapting to these changes while also being overvalued compared to industry peers. Future performance will depend on the successful implementation of new sales strategies and the realization of tax benefits.

North America Equity Research 16 December 2024 J P M O R G A N Autos Valuation Comp Sheet Priced as of December 13, 2024 Autos & Auto Parts Ryan Brinkman AC (1-212) 622-6581 ryan.j.brinkman@jpmorgan.com Rajat Gupta AC (1-212) 622-6382 rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com Jash Patwa AC (1-212) 622-5472 jash.patwa@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC nml Table Of Contents In this note, we include the latest comp sheet and valuation metrics for global automotive OEMs (page 3), auto parts suppliers (page 5), auto auctio ...

Key Points **1. Stock Connect Holdings and Flows**: * **Stock Connect holdings** have increased significantly over the years, reaching $466.73 billion since inception. * **Southbound weekly flows** have been relatively stable, averaging $2.73 billion over the past year. * **Cumulative southbound flows** have been strong, reaching $95.95 billion year-to-date. **2. Sector Analysis**: * **Communication Services** and **Consumer Discretionary** sectors have seen significant inflows, with weekly flows of $1.1 billion and $0.5 billion, respectively. * **Financials** and **Health Care** sectors have also seen notable inflows, with weekly flows of $0.8 billion and $0.2 billion, respectively. * **Industrials** and **Materials** sectors have seen moderate inflows, with weekly flows of $0.3 billion and $0.1 billion, respectively. **3. Top Holdings**: * **Tencent Holdings Ltd** remains the largest holding, with a market cap of $459 billion and a 43% stake. * **China Mobile Ltd** is the second-largest holding, with a market cap of $258 billion and a 99% stake. * **Alibaba Group Holding Ltd** is the third-largest holding, with a market cap of $140 billion and a 58% stake. **4. ETFs and Warrants**: * **ETFs** have seen significant inflows, with the top 10 ETFs having a total AUM of $319 billion. * **Warrants** have seen moderate inflows, with the total warrant market activity reaching $0.7 billion. **5. Market Cap and Performance**: * **Large cap** stocks have outperformed, with the CSI 300 index returning 16% year-to-date. * **Mid cap** stocks have returned 15%, while **small cap** stocks have returned 10%. * **Cyclical** stocks have outperformed **defensive** stocks, with the cyclical sector returning 23% year-to-date compared to 6% for the defensive sector. **6. Margin Trading and Short Selling**: * **Margin trading** has seen significant growth, with the total margin balance outstanding reaching $1.9 trillion. * **Short selling** has also seen growth, with the total short selling turnover reaching $0.4 billion. **7. Index Performance**: * The **HSI** index has returned 16% year-to-date. * The **HSCEI** index has returned 18% year-to-date. * The **A50** index has returned 19% year-to-date. **8. Valuation**: * The **PE ratio** of the **HSCEI** index is at 11.5x, which is at the 67th percentile compared to the 10-year average of 11.1x. **9. Future Outlook**: * The outlook for the Chinese equity market remains positive, with strong fundamentals and supportive macroeconomic conditions. * The market is expected to continue to see strong inflows from both domestic and international investors.

Key Points **Industry Overview** * **Mixed Results**: The industry is experiencing mixed results in terms of earnings and cost of capital. ROIC incorporates returns from operating assets and capital allocation decisions, including acquisitions and spectrum investments. * **Competitive Pressure**: The Canadian telecom industry is facing competitive pressure and slowing growth, partly due to initiatives from the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) promoting competition. * **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The macro team believes the Canadian economy will remain in excess supply, leading to softer growth in 2H24 and 2025 compared to the central bank's October projections. * **Wireless Market**: The wireless market is experiencing significant competition, with Quebecor capturing market share with lower prices and aggressive strategies. * **Fixed Broadband**: Telus and Bell Canada are expected to benefit from their continued fiber builds in the fixed broadband market. **Company-Specific** * **BCE**: BCE has underperformed the sector for several years and currently has a 11% dividend yield reflecting growth and capital structure concerns. The company's dividend payout ratio exceeds FCF generation, and the Ziply acquisition is expected to be dilutive to FCF at least until 2028. * **Rogers**: Rogers is focused on de-leveraging after the Shaw acquisition, but the challenging industry growth is occurring at an inopportune time. The company's recent structured equity financing is creative but has created some confusion among bond and equity holders. * **Telus**: Telus is well-positioned in the broadband market due to its fiber-rich network and ability to bundle mobile with other services. The company has a more balanced risk/reward profile compared to BCE and Rogers. **Valuation and Outlook** * **Valuation**: The report presents a valuation framework focusing on growth and ROIC rather than yield. It considers factors such as scale, profitability, leverage, financial policy, and shareholder return. * **Outlook**: The report expects the Canadian telecom industry to continue facing challenges, including competition, regulatory changes, and economic conditions. The outlook for BCE, Rogers, and Telus is cautious, with a focus on potential risks and opportunities.

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