M Update November 15, 2024 01:21 PM GMT Loar Holdings Inc | North America Continuing to Execute on its Growth Strategy | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | What's Changed \nLoar Holdings Inc (LOAR.N) | From | To | | Price Target | $75.00 | $89.00 | Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Impact to our investment thesis Financial results versus consensus Impact to next 12-month consensus EPS We see the move lower in the stock as largely overdone as gr ...

15 Nov 2024 14:36:08 ET │ 10 pages Global Commodities CBAM risks further straining the US-EU relationship as it targets €4 billion worth of US imports with an implied 10% tariff The first attempt to accurately compile the CBAM registry failed, underscoring the mechanism's limitations we previously detailed in Global Commodities - CBAM primer and how EU producers and importers could save up to €600 million on higher CBAM related costs from 2026. Moreover, during the second Trump presidency, CBAM risks furthe ...

Summary of Accelink's Optical Networking Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Optical Networking - **Company**: Accelink Technologies, a major transceiver manufacturer focusing on the Chinese domestic market Key Points 1. **Supply Constraints**: EML (Electro-absorption Modulated Laser) supplies will remain tight into 2025, impacting transceiver shipments [2][4] 2. **Demand Dynamics**: The demand for transceivers in China is strong, particularly for 400G products, which are a generation behind the mainstream products in North America [1][4] 3. **Shipment Lag**: Current shipments are lagging behind demand due to component supply constraints, leading to a portion of the demand in 2024 being pushed into 2025 [1][4] 4. **Production Capacity**: Accelink has established a new facility with equipment installed in July 2024, aiming for a production capacity of a few hundred thousand units per month, but is hindered by component supply issues [3] 5. **Market Competition**: Competition in the Chinese transceiver market is expected to intensify as suppliers expand their capacities, which may lead to pricing declines [4][6] 6. **Product Demand**: The construction of 400G long-haul optical networks by Chinese telecom operators is expected to increase demand for Accelink's products, including fiber amplifiers and coherent transceivers [7] 7. **Peer Comparison**: Accelink's insights on demand strength and EML supply tightness align with those of HG Tech, a close peer, but the intensifying competition poses a risk [8] Additional Insights - **Future Outlook**: Accelink anticipates that the demand for transceivers will continue to grow into 2025, despite current shipment challenges [4] - **Investment Implications**: The findings suggest potential investment opportunities in companies like HG Tech, which are also involved in the optical transceiver market [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the call regarding Accelink's position in the optical networking industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks associated with supply constraints and competitive dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Retail and Food Services - **Key Metrics**: Retail sales data for October and revisions for previous months Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Retail Sales Performance**: - Headline retail sales increased by 0.4%, slightly above consensus expectations of 0.3% [1] - Control group sales, however, decreased by 0.1%, contrasting with consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase [1] - There was a net downward revision to control group sales for August and September, indicating a slight decline in spending levels [1] 2. **Consumption Tracking**: - For Q4, consumption tracking was adjusted down to 2.0% from 2.1%, indicating a slowdown from the estimated 2.8% annual growth rate year-to-date [2] - Monthly real consumption growth is tracking down by 0.1% [2] 3. **Revisions to Previous Quarters**: - 3Q real consumption is expected to be revised down to 3.4% from 3.7%, and GDP growth is revised down to 2.6% from 2.8% [3] - Real goods spending is now projected to rise at a 5% annual rate instead of the previously estimated 6% [3] 4. **Sector Performance**: - Autos showed strong performance with a 1.6% increase in sales for October [4] - Gasoline sales increased slightly by 0.1%, despite a 1.5% decline in prices, indicating rising real purchase volumes [4] - Restaurants continued to perform well, with a 0.7% increase for the fourth consecutive month [4] - Categories such as health and personal care, miscellaneous, and apparel saw a reversal in strength in October compared to September [4] 5. **Building Materials and Online Sales**: - Building materials sales increased by 0.5%, which was solid but below expectations [5] - Online sales were revised upward for September and increased by 0.3% in October, maintaining a constant share of total sales [5] Additional Important Information - The report includes various economists from Morgan Stanley, indicating a collaborative analysis effort [1] - The data is sourced from the Census Department and Morgan Stanley Research, emphasizing the credibility of the information [1] - The report contains a disclosure section outlining the limitations and responsibilities of Morgan Stanley regarding the research provided [7][8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call notes, focusing on the retail and food services industry, highlighting performance metrics, revisions, and sector-specific insights.

Industry/Company Involved * **Global Macro Outlook 2025**: The document discusses the global macroeconomic outlook for 2025, covering various regions including the US, Europe, China, and beyond. It focuses on growth prospects and investment opportunities across different asset classes such as equities, credit, commodities, and bonds. Core Views and Arguments * **Growth Prospects**: The document highlights that growth prospects for 2025 are positive, driven by factors such as improving economic conditions, increasing consumer spending, and supportive monetary policies. * **Tailwinds Overhead**: The document emphasizes that tailwinds are likely to outweigh headwinds, such as geopolitical tensions and rising inflation, leading to overall positive growth. * **Asset Class Performance**: The document provides insights into the expected performance of different asset classes in 2025. It suggests that equities and credit markets may benefit from improving economic conditions, while commodities and bonds may experience mixed performance. Other Important Content * **Research Areas**: The document mentions various research areas covered by Goldman Sachs, including inflation, central banks, private markets, consumer trends, and innovation in sectors like AI, fintech, and healthcare. * **Market Themes**: The document highlights key market themes for 2025, such as carbonomics, the Inflation Reduction Act, GS SUSTAIN, green capex, electrification in Europe, obesity, and China's transition. * **Research Products**: The document provides information about Goldman Sachs' research products and services, including the GS Factor Profile, M&A Rank, and Quantum database. * **Disclosures**: The document includes various disclosures related to the research report, such as regulatory disclosures, ratings distribution, and investment banking relationships.

M Idea Friday Finish – US Economics | North America November 15, 2024 09:13 PM GMT Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Seth B Carpenter Chief Global Economist Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0370 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630 Diego Anzoategui Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Lenoy Dujon US/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Heather Berger Economist Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296 The Noise Continu ...

Industry and Company Analysis 1. **Global Economic Outlook** - **US Economic Growth**: The US economy is expected to grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. [2] - **Euro Area GDP**: Cut to a below-consensus 0.8% due to structural headwinds and trade policy uncertainty. [3] - **China GDP**: Cut to 4.5% due to higher US tariffs partially offset by easier macro policies. [3] - **Inflation**: US core PCE inflation expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, with a risk of rising to 3% with a 10% across-the-board tariff. [4] 2. **US Economic Policy Changes** - **Trade**: New tariffs on China and autos, with a 3.4pp increase in the effective tariff rate for US imports. [14] - **Immigration**: Net immigration expected to slow to 750k/year. [14] - **Fiscal**: Lower corporate tax for domestic manufacturers to 15% and reinstating more generous corporate incentives. [14] - **Regulation**: Easier approval of energy projects, expanding LNG exports, and reversing restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. [14] 3. **Impact on US GDP** - **Base Case**: A small hit to growth in 2025 (0.2pp) and a moderate boost in 2026 (0.3pp). [16] - **Risk Case**: Larger negative impulse from across-the-board tariff, with a net drag on growth averaging 1.0pp in 2026. [18] 4. **Impact on Europe and China** - **Euro Area**: Trade policy uncertainty could subtract 0.9% from GDP. [20] - **China**: US tariff increase expected to subtract 0.7pp from growth in 2025. [22] 5. **Global Growth Outlook** - **Global GDP**: Expected to average 2.7% in 2025, with US outperforming relative to consensus. [30] 6. **Inflation and Disinflation** - **US Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, with a risk of rising to 3.1% with a 10% across-the-board tariff. [37] - **Disinflation**: Expected to continue across major DM economies, with the US, UK, and Australia likely to cluster around 2½% by late 2025. [45] 7. **Monetary Policy** - **Fed**: Expected to cut rates to 3.25-3.5% with sequential moves through Q1 and a slowdown thereafter. [49] - **ECB**: Expected to continue sequential cuts and lower the terminal forecast to 1.75%. [51] - **BoE**: Expected to cut rates back to 3.75% by end-2025 and a terminal rate of 3.25% in 2026Q2. [51] - **Other DMs**: Expected to see more aggressive cuts in smaller DM central banks. [52] - **EMs**: Expected to see significant room for monetary easing given that policy rates remain far above neutral. [54] 8. **Market Outlook** - **Equities**: Expected to see modest positive returns across key asset classes, with US equities outperforming and EM equities likely to outperform fixed income. [79] - **Bonds**: Expected to see modest positive returns, with US Treasuries and Bunds/Gilts playing an important diversifying role in portfolios. [80] - **Commodities**: Expected to continue to benefit from a positive roll return, with lower contribution from price shifts. [79] 9. **Tail Risks** - **Broader Trade War**: Underpriced risk, particularly for its potential impact on Europe and some non-China EM economies. [67] - **Fiscal Risk**: Increased possibility of additional fiscal expansion and focus on the sustainability of the US public debt profile. [69] - **Inflation Risk**: Short-term inflation risks are two-sided, with short-dated US inflation swaps priced well above the forecast. [69] - **Oil Market**: Risks of breaking the $70-$85/bbl range are growing, with upside tail risk from Iranian supply and downside risk from ample supply and potential demand hurt by broader tariff action. [71] 10. **Investment Strategy** - **Maintain Exposure**: Maintain exposure to robust US economic outlook while protecting against key tail risks. [80] - **Diversification**: Use diversification to address some of the challenges, including US Treasuries, Bunds/Gilts, and mid-cap equities or a more equal-weighted allocation. [80] - **Options**: Use options to provide protection against macro tails, including long USD positions, long USD optionality, and upside in gold and oil. [82]

15 November 2024 | 4:25AM GMT to LT semiconductor demand. As such, ASML reiterated its guidance for 2030 and expects revenues of €44-60bn, which at the mid-point/upper end implies a CAGR of 10%/13% across 2025-30. Key takeaways include: 1) Reiterated guide for 2030 points towards continued strength of LT demand drivers, with the stock currently trading at a modest 2030 PE multiple suggesting scope for upside, 2) ASML reiterated its 2030 semis TAM outlook of >$1trn, with a weaker mature node / NAND memory fo ...

14 Nov 2024 03:35:11 ET │ 11 pages V i e w p o i n t | Global Semiconductors Memory Pricing Update: 4Q DRAM ASP Likely to be Better-ThanFeared; Memory ASP Recovery in 2H25E CITI'S TAKE Recently, the market appeared to be concerned about a potential decline in 4Q DRAM pricing due to concerns on HBM oversupply and weakening demand for conventional memory. Contrary to market concerns, we expect 4Q DRAM pricing to be better-than-feared driven by increasing mix of HBM and premium memory with high bandwidth and h ...

15 November 2024 | 11:44AM CST China Healthcare: Plasma 3Q24 Wrap-up: Albumin under pressure but IVIG stronger; three debates to address | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | All 7 A-share listed plasma product companies have published their 3Q24 reports. | Research \| Equity | | We observe that most companies h ...