Global Automation: The latest demand and market share trends in China (YE 2024) Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com 6 February 2025 Asian Industrial Technology Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5242 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com We present the latest trends in the Chinese industrial automation industry up to 4Q24. Our readers can download the data here for Robots and here for Other Automation Products. FA demand recovery started in 2 ...

Summary of Quarterly Bank Flows: 4Q24 Securities Holdings Industry Overview - The report focuses on the banking sector in North America, specifically analyzing the changes in bank portfolio holdings across various types of securities for the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24) compared to the previous quarter (3Q24) [1][2]. Key Findings Securities Holdings Changes - **US Treasuries**: - Banks added $73 billion in US Treasuries, with JP Morgan contributing $50 billion and Bank of America adding $25 billion. Citigroup reduced its holdings by $12 billion [6]. - Total US Treasuries held increased from $1,426,029 million in 3Q24 to $1,498,640 million in 4Q24, a change of $72,611 million (5.1% increase) [7]. - **Ginnie Pass-Throughs**: - A net addition of $12 billion was observed, with KeyCorp and US Bank adding $7 billion and $6 billion, respectively. Bank of America and Wells Fargo each reduced their holdings by approximately $3 billion [6]. - Total Ginnie pass-throughs increased from $502,441 million to $514,550 million, a change of $12,109 million (2.4% increase) [7]. - **Conventional Pass-Throughs**: - Banks added $10 billion, reversing previous negative demand. JP Morgan added $7.4 billion while Bank of America reduced $8 billion [6]. - Total conventional pass-throughs rose from $1,499,494 million to $1,509,865 million, a change of $10,371 million (0.7% increase) [7]. - **Agency CMBS**: - Demand was strong with a net addition of $7.3 billion, led by Bank of America with a $5.7 billion increase [6]. - Total agency CMBS increased from $343,651 million to $350,915 million, a change of $7,265 million (2.1% increase) [7]. - **CMOs**: - Positive demand continued with a net addition of $5 billion. Bank of America added $2.8 billion while KeyCorp reduced $4.4 billion [6]. - Total CMOs increased from $500,840 million to $506,087 million, a change of $5,247 million (1.0% increase) [7]. Notable Reductions - **Agency Debentures**: - Experienced the largest net reduction of $6 billion [6]. - **Corporate Bonds**: - Banks reduced corporate holdings by $3.9 billion [6]. - **Municipal Bonds**: - A reduction of $3.1 billion was noted [6]. - **ABS**: - Saw a reduction of $5.7 billion, primarily due to TD Bank's $3.5 billion reduction [6]. - **CLOs**: - Holdings declined by $3.9 billion, with Wells Fargo reducing $4 billion [6]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed tables and charts illustrating the changes in bank holdings by type of securities, highlighting the largest net changes and current holders [2][9][17]. - The data is compiled from call report filings available at the FFIEC's Central Data Repository, focusing on AFS and HTM accounts for securities holdings [2]. - The report emphasizes that the data is based on amortized cost to exclude volatility from market value changes [2]. Conclusion - The banking sector showed a mixed performance in 4Q24, with significant additions in US Treasuries and Ginnie pass-throughs, while facing reductions in corporate bonds and agency debentures. The overall trend indicates a cautious but strategic repositioning among banks in response to market conditions.

EU Semiconductors ASML Holding NV Rating Our analysis leads us to conclude that our 2025 estimates are covered by the current backlog, assuming that all non-EUV bookings are for 2025. There is a risk that some have been pushed to 2026, but as lead times for these systems are typically 6-9 months, we believe the risk that the backlog would not be covered in time is low. This also implies that ASML still needs just over 19B of bookings to cover the 2026 backlog for our estimates, with just over 7B (or ~32 uni ...

Equity Research U.S. Gaming, Leisure & Lodging 6 February 2025 BYD 4Q24 Review: So You're Saying There's a Chance Solid 4Q report, as expected. Post election bump was downplayed, but likely for the sake of conservatism. Our estimates tick modestly higher. PT to $78, remain EW. BYD reported 3%/6% upside vs. us/Cons property adjusted EBITDAR. Compared to our model, outperformance was driven by Locals, Online and Managed, while MW&S was in-line with our estimate (and 2% ahead of Cons.). Looking forward, our 20 ...

Wanhua Chemical | Asia Pacific February 6, 2025 05:51 AM GMT Spreads and share price diverged but valuation fair Investors are curious for the reasons behind the weak share price performance despite recent product price hikes. We think the uncertainty in 4Q24 earnings and valuation is key, while tariff impact could be milder than it appears. Maintain EW. Price hikes across regions but share price diverged. Since the overseas price hikes by BASF and Wanhua in early Jan, Huntsman also followed and hiked MDI p ...

February 6, 2025 01:11 AM GMT | Exhibit 1: | | | Solar products – Price summary | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2/5/2025 Polysilicon (Rmb/kg) Wafer-182mm | | Wafer-210mm | Cell-182mm | Cell-210mm | Polysilicon | Wafer-182mm | (USD/pc) Cell-182mm (USD/W) | | | | | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/W) | (Rmb/W) | (USD/kg) | | | | | Weekly ave | 39.0 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 21.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 | | | WoW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Australian and New Zealand fixed income markets, particularly the interest rate strategies and economic indicators affecting these regions [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Trade Policy Uncertainty**: The current global trade policy remains uncertain, which reinforces a bullish bias on yields in the fixed income market [2][4]. - **Australian Retail Spending**: Positive retail spending news in Australia does not challenge the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forecasts, indicating a stable economic outlook [2][4]. - **Inflation Dynamics**: Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports confirm that inflation dynamics in Australia have largely normalized, setting the stage for a gradual easing cycle [2][4]. - **RBA Rate Cuts**: A first RBA rate cut is fully priced for February 2025, with the overall pricing for 2025 appearing fair. The market anticipates a slight directional bias towards paying May RBA Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) with 55 basis points of cuts priced in [5][4]. - **New Zealand Labor Market**: New Zealand's 4Q labor market data shows rising unemployment, now up 1.7 percentage points from the trough, which may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to implement another 50 basis point cut [17][4]. - **Mortgage Rates in NZ**: Despite new mortgage rates decreasing, average mortgage rates are still rising due to older mortgages rolling off, indicating a lack of cyclical traction in the New Zealand economy [27][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Positioning**: The report suggests staying received on AUD 3Yx1Y IRS and being underweight the belly of the ACGB Sep-26/Nov-28/Apr-33 fly, as this curve point is rich relative to the 3s/10s curve [2][4]. - **Cross-Market Dynamics**: The AUD has recently rallied on idiosyncratic factors, diverging from trends seen in other markets, which suggests a preference for intra-market expressions rather than cross-market trades [12][4]. - **RBNZ's Easing Cycle**: The RBNZ's rapid pivot to an easing cycle has seen NZD 1Yx1Y outperform AUD, but the market remains hesitant to push terminal rates materially below 3% [18][4]. - **Trade Recommendations**: The report includes specific trade recommendations such as receiving NZD 1Yx1Y IRS and holding NZGB Apr-33s against MMS [40][4]. Conclusion - The Australian and New Zealand fixed income markets are navigating a complex landscape of economic indicators, central bank policies, and market dynamics. The anticipated easing cycles in both countries, alongside the unique challenges faced by the New Zealand labor market, present both risks and opportunities for investors in these regions [2][4].

J P M O R G A N NIM Asset quality Efficiency Capital See page 3 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. Latin America Equity Research 06 February 2025 Inter 4Q24 Conference Call Highlights Today Inter hosted its 4Q24 conference call. Main highlights below: Loans J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the o ...

A fresh start for the new year Equity Research Report 6 February 2025 China Equity Strategy Equity Strategy DeepSeek a re-rating catalyst. The development of DeepSeek has attracted the attention of global markets – it reconfirmed China's continued ability to innovate, and in this note, we explore other evidence of China's underestimated innovation capability. In 2023, China accounted for an impressive quarter of global patent filings. However, the relatively low correlation between the CSI300's PE and China ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Technology and Express Delivery in China - **Date**: February 6, 2025 Core Insights 1. **Government Initiatives**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for enhanced coordination between markets and policies, aiming to promote scientific and technological innovation and increase counter-cyclical adjustments [5][4][1] 2. **Express Delivery Performance**: During the Spring Festival holiday, China's express delivery sector processed 1.9 billion packages, with a 31% increase in package collection and a 26.7% increase in shipments year-over-year [5][4][1] 3. **DeepSeek's Growth**: DeepSeek's daily active users (DAUs) exceeded 20 million within 21 days of its official launch, positioning it competitively against ChatGPT and ByteDance's Doubao [5][8][1] Company-Specific Developments 1. **Temu and Shein Retailers**: These retailers are required to pay an additional 30% of the retail value of goods as a deposit, which will be adjusted based on actual tax charges from U.S. tariffs, raising concerns about potential logistical delays [4][6][1] 2. **BYD's Strategic Moves**: BYD plans to hold an intelligence strategy conference on February 10 to discuss updates on smart driving capabilities and aims to hire 20,000 employees in Zhengzhou in Q1 [5][8][1] 3. **Xiaomi's Sales Target**: Xiaomi has set a target to sell 10,000 units of its luxury EV SU7 Ultra in 2025 [5][8][1] 4. **XPeng's Autonomous Driving Ambitions**: XPeng's CEO expressed confidence that the company could achieve Level 3 autonomous driving across all scenarios by the second half of 2025, with plans to expand its EV offerings [5][8][1] 5. **JD.com's Acquisition Interest**: JD.com has reportedly renewed interest in acquiring Germany's electronics retailer Ceconomy AG, although details remain unconfirmed [5][8][1] Additional Noteworthy Information - **Macau Travel Statistics**: Macau saw a 0.6% year-over-year increase in total inbound and outbound travelers during the Spring Festival, totaling 4.91 million [5][4][1] - **Market Context**: The report highlights the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the Chinese technology sector, particularly in light of government policies and market dynamics [5][4][1]