Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document focuses on the **US Inflation Monitor** and provides insights into the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** for December 2024, highlighting trends in core and headline inflation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Core CPI Expectations**: Core CPI is expected to rise by **0.26% month-over-month (m/m)** in December, translating to a **3.3% year-over-year (y/y)** increase, which is **5 basis points (bp)** lower than November's figure [6][17][36]. 2. **Headline CPI Increase**: The headline CPI is projected to increase by **0.37% m/m** and **2.9% y/y**, driven by seasonally adjusted energy inflation [6][17][36]. 3. **Core Goods Inflation**: Core goods inflation is decelerating but remains positive, with an expected increase of **0.11%** in December, down from previous months [9][12]. 4. **Rents and Housing**: Rents are expected to accelerate, with both primary residence rents and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) projected to rise, although they will remain below the underlying trend for the year [7][12]. 5. **Core Services**: Core services inflation, excluding housing, is anticipated to decrease, particularly in categories like hotels and airfares, which are expected to show a deceleration [7][16]. 6. **Energy Prices**: Seasonally adjusted retail gasoline prices are expected to increase, contributing to the overall rise in headline inflation despite a nominal drop in observed gasoline prices [31][32]. 7. **Car Prices**: The relationship between used and new car prices is highlighted, with expectations of deceleration in both categories due to fading hurricane effects [19][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Seasonal Factors**: Seasonal adjustments may lead to downward bias in December's inflation readings, particularly in housing-related metrics [24][25]. 2. **PCE Implications**: The forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is set at **0.21% m/m**, indicating a stronger performance compared to the previous month [36][37]. 3. **Long-term Inflation Trends**: The annualized 3-month pace for core PCE is expected to remain stable at **2.4%**, with projections indicating a gradual decrease in inflation rates over the next few years [38][39]. 4. **Market Volatility**: The document notes ongoing volatility in shelter costs, with expectations of short-term acceleration in rents despite a longer-term downward trend [12][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding inflation trends in the US economy as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders and investors.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - SMID Cap Growth SMID Cap Growth Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell 2500G Smid Cap Growth managers trailed the Russell 2500 Growth by -0.6% in 2024 (13.3% vs. 13.9%), net of fees. Although PMs lagged the benchmark by -0.4% during 4Q, they outperformed by 2.0% in December. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.4% to performance in 2024, driven ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy 2025 & near-term A-share outlook in pictures Near-term outlook: range-bound trade with limited downside The market sentiment soured recently with Wind all A-share index seeing a loss of 8% since 13 Dec 2024 due to (1) potential tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty; (2) a lack of policy easing details till Two Sessions in Mar 2025; (3) weaker Rmb exchanged rate against the US dollar and falling Chinese government ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 On the downside, demand remains a key risk, with a slowing Chinese economy in focus. We are relatively cautious on 2025 oil demand growth (+1.1Mb/d), including for China (+0.2Mb/d). Slower Chinese demand (UBSe +4.0% GDP) and/or repercussions on tariffs and other headwinds could still bring demand growth lower. A larger surplus and lower oil price, falling below $70/bbl, could increase tensions within OPEC+ and risk weaker compliance. On potential stronger US supply gr ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Pharmaceutical * **Company**: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) * **Conference Date**: January 8, 2025 Key Points **1. Sales and Profit Growth**: * **2025 Outlook**: CSPC expects positive sales and net profit growth in 2025. * **4Q24 Performance**: 4Q24 remained soft due to declining legacy drugs. * **Product Sales**: Duomeisu sales are expected to drop by <Rmb100mn after the 10th round of VBP, while NBP should see slight positive growth. * **Innovative Drugs**: Sales of innovative drugs are expected to grow by Rmb2bn, led by rhTNK-tPA, omalizumab, and gumetinib. * **API Segment**: The API segment is expected to be healthy in 2025, with stable caffeine ASP and VC ASP inflecting. * **Net Profit**: Net profit is expected to outpace sales, off a low 2024 base. * **Stock Repurchase and Dividends**: CSPC will continue to repurchase stocks under its HK$5bn buyback program and reward investors with generous dividends in 2025. **2. R&D Updates**: * **EGFR ADC**: Ph3 trials for NSCLC and HNC are likely to be initiated in 2025. * **Nectin-4 ADC and Simmitinib (TKI)**: Both are expected to have readouts in 2025. * **KN026, TG103, and Generic Semaglutide**: All expected to be filed for NDA. * **Out-licensing Deals**: CSPC aims to complete 1-2 out-licensing deals in 2025. **3. Valuation and Risks**: * **Valuation Methodology**: Discounted cash flow methodology with a cost of equity of 11% and a WACC of 11%. * **Upside Risks**: Stronger-than-expected sales ramp-up, better-than-expected margin improvement, pipeline advancement, increasing business development, API price surge. * **Downside Risks**: API price slump, pipeline failures or delays, rising operating costs, further government price cuts or reimbursement controls, business development setback, faster-than-expected rollout of NBP generics. **4. Stock Rating**: * **Rating**: Overweight * **Price Target**: HK$6.60 * **Up/Downside to Price Target (%)**: 49 Additional Information * **Industry View**: Attractive * **Fiscal Year Ending**: December * **EPS (Rmb)**: 0.49, 0.45, 0.44, 0.45 * **Revenue, net (Rmb mn)**: 31,450, 30,092, 30,154, 30,595 * **EBITDA (Rmb mn)**: 8,554, 8,103, 8,100, 8,434 * **ModelWare net inc (Rmb mn)**: 5,873, 5,359, 5,270, 5,396 * **P/E**: 13.3, 10.0, 9.4, 9.2 * **P/BV**: 2.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.1 * **EV/EBITDA**: 7.1, 4.2, 3.3, 3.0 * **Div yld (%)**: 1.5, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2 * **ROE (%)**: 19.4, 16.1, 14.1, 13.0

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Healthcare Outlook 2025: Structural opportunities amid uncertainty Risks skewed to the upside; we prefer biotech and online pharmacies Biopharma BD momentum to continue; positive on near-term CRO earnings We think biotech could outperform on companies' solid fundamentals, backed by the government's supportive policies on innovation. We believe the historically high level of Chinese out-licensing deals proves China's biopharma R& ...

Summary of Goldman Sachs China Basic Materials 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the outlook for the China Basic Materials sector in 2025, indicating a more favorable year compared to 2024 due to stabilizing domestic demand and supply discipline leading to improved pricing and margins [1][2]. Key Companies and Ratings - **Cement**: Upgraded Conch-H and CNBM to Buy from Neutral, with expected unit gross profit of Rmb88-90/t for Conch in 2025-26E, up from Rmb58/t in 2024E [12][13][81]. - **Coal**: Downgraded Chinacoal-H/A and Shenhua-A from Neutral to Sell, with expectations of a long-term correction in coal demand due to China's energy transition [12][13][92]. - **Aluminum**: Upgraded Chalco-H to Buy from Sell, with a revised price target reflecting improved pricing for alumina and bauxite [12][13][81]. - **Copper**: Maintained a positive outlook, expecting a 3.0% increase in demand in 2025E [12][13][124]. Demand Projections - Overall demand for China commodities is expected to grow between -3.5% to +3.0% in 2025, a significant improvement from -10.2% to +4.4% in 2024 [2][15]. - Key drivers for demand include infrastructure construction, property completion, and solar installation, with infrastructure expected to stabilize after a decline in 2024 [28][29]. Supply-Side Dynamics - Significant overcapacity exists in cement and steel, with estimates suggesting that 900 million tonnes of clinker capacity (40% of total) and nearly 400 million tonnes of steel capacity (30% of total) need to be removed to restore supply-demand balance [3][58][67]. - Current capacity utilization rates are 51% for cement and 72% for steel, with potential improvements expected through categorized management and enforcement of capacity exits [58][66]. Pricing and Margins - Cement prices are projected to recover, with gross profit margins expected to improve significantly in 2025 due to better capacity utilization and demand stabilization [12][13][81]. - Coal prices are expected to decline slightly, with thermal coal prices projected to average Rmb850/t in 2025, down from Rmb855/t in 2024 [12][13][95]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to lower fabrication exports, with a forecasted average price of US$1.07/lb in 2025 [12][13][123]. Risks and Considerations - Risks include weaker-than-expected demand in construction and infrastructure, slower-than-expected capacity exits, and potential increases in raw material costs [12][13][169][171]. - The transition to renewable energy sources poses a long-term risk to coal demand, with expectations of a decline in thermal coal demand for power generation by 5-22% by 2030E [2][92]. Conclusion - The outlook for the China Basic Materials sector in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with expected improvements in demand and pricing for cement and aluminum, while coal faces long-term challenges due to energy transition policies. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and the need for capacity management to enhance profitability across the sector [1][12][13][92].

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 We think the rebound in LNG truck demand in Q125E implies LNG heavy-duty truck (HDT) demand in 2025E would remain flat YoY. We believe Weichai's expansion into the EV supply chain will reduce the risk of shrinking internal combustion engine (ICE) market share. Our revised earnings estimates imply 10% earnings growth in 2025E vs. flat previously. abc 7 January 2025 Global Research Weichai Power - A Risk-reward attractive, upgrade to Buy Improved 2025 outlook; attractiv ...

Summary of the Equity Research Report on China's Hog Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's hog industry, specifically the outlook for hog prices in 2025, which is expected to be on a downtrend [1][9]. Key Points Hog Price Trends - **4Q24 Expectations**: Hog prices were weaker than expected, with the average selling price (ASP) decreasing by approximately 9% compared to expectations. This decline is attributed to delayed hog production from 3Q to 4Q due to increased hog weights [2][10]. - **2025 Price Forecast**: The forecast for 2025 hog ASP has been lowered to RMB 15.0/kg from RMB 16.5/kg. This is due to an anticipated increase in hog supply as sow inventory rises, which will exert downward pressure on prices [3][29]. Financial Performance of Companies - **Earnings Estimates**: Net profit estimates for covered hog breeding companies have been revised. For example, Muyuan Foods' 2025 net profit estimate has been reduced by 25.3% [4][45]. - **Company Ratings**: - Muyuan Foods downgraded to Hold from Buy with a target price of RMB 39.00 [4][91]. - New Hope downgraded to Reduce from Hold with a target price of RMB 6.60 [4][109]. - Haid Group maintained as Buy with a target price of RMB 61.70 [4][77]. Cost and Profitability - **Cost Trends**: Breeding costs are expected to decline year-on-year in 2025 due to lower raw material prices and improved production indicators. Companies with effective cost control may still generate profits despite falling hog prices [3][30]. - **Capacity Utilization**: High leverage among companies is expected to lead to reduced capital expenditures and increased capacity utilization, which may help mitigate some of the impacts of lower prices [31]. Market Sentiment - **Investor Concerns**: The weaker-than-expected 4Q hog prices have raised concerns among investors regarding the profitability of hog breeding companies in 2025. The share prices of these companies have corrected by 12-18% since October 2024, compared to a 6% decline in the CSI 300 index [12][28]. Long-term Outlook - **2026 Projections**: If the hog price and costs align with expectations, the downtrend in hog prices may continue into 2026. However, if prices fall significantly below expectations, there may be a more positive outlook for 2026 [30][56]. Additional Insights - **Production Indicators**: The report highlights that the percentage of small pigs in production is decreasing, indicating a shift towards larger hogs, which may affect overall production dynamics [20]. - **Debt Levels**: The report notes that many hog breeding companies are operating with high debt levels, which poses risks if hog prices continue to decline [43]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's hog industry in 2025 is cautious, with expectations of declining prices and profitability for many companies. Investors are advised to monitor cost control measures and market conditions closely as the industry navigates these challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The document discusses the implications of the inclusion of notable Chinese companies, such as Tencent and CATL, on the US Department of Defense's list of "Chinese military companies (CMCs)" as of January 6, 2024 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact of Inclusion on Share Prices**: Historically, companies added to the "CMC" list have experienced a flat return, underperforming the market by an average of 8% in the three months following their inclusion. In extreme cases, companies facing outright investment bans have seen share price drawdowns averaging 23% over one year [1][3]. - **Investor Sentiment**: The inclusion of companies in the "CMC" list may create investor uncertainties, potentially leading to short-term pressure on share prices. However, some high-quality companies, like China Mobile, have shown less severe drawdowns [3]. - **Geopolitical Concerns**: Geopolitical uncertainties are expected to exert near-term pressure on Chinese equities. Despite this, foreign investors are showing increased interest in the Chinese equity markets due to stronger policy support from the government [4]. - **Market Outlook**: A positive return of 9% for MSCI China is anticipated in 2025 as fundamentals are expected to improve throughout the year [4]. Additional Important Content - **Regulatory Measures**: The document outlines various US government measures against Chinese companies, including export controls and investment bans. Inclusion in the "CMC" list does not automatically lead to inclusion in the more restrictive NS-CMIC list [2]. - **Shareholder Composition**: The document provides data on the percentage of shares held by US investors in newly added companies, indicating varying levels of foreign investment [10]. - **Valuation and Risk Factors**: The report mentions the use of various valuation methods for stocks in the Hong Kong and mainland China markets, highlighting risks such as a potential hard landing in the property market and capital outflows due to currency depreciation [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the Chinese equity market and the specific companies affected by recent regulatory changes.