Global Metals & Mining_ Strong start to TSF for the year in China (Jan’25_ +9%y_y), a record new TSF in a holiday-impacted month
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Metals & Mining - **Focus**: Total Social Financing (TSF) and Steel Demand in China Key Insights 1. **Strong Start to TSF in China**: - January 2025 TSF reached 7.06 trillion RMB, marking a 9% year-over-year increase, the strongest monthly TSF on record [1] - January typically accounts for 16% of the annual TSF, but this year it represented 22% of the new TSF for 2024 [1] 2. **Forecast for FY 2025**: - If normal seasonality is applied, the total TSF for FY 2025 could reach 45 trillion RMB, representing a 40% year-over-year increase [1] - Despite the strong TSF in January, steel demand in FY 2025, particularly in the first half, is expected to be impacted by the lag effect from weak FY 2024 TSF and a declining infrastructure build cycle [1] 3. **Government Bond Issuance**: - Government bond financing in January 2025 was strong at 693 billion RMB, compared to 295 billion RMB in January 2024 [2] - Total government bond financing is expected to expand to 14.5 trillion RMB in 2025, with 11.5 trillion RMB aimed at pro-growth efforts [2] 4. **Corporate and Household Credit Trends**: - Corporate long-term loans increased by 3,460 billion RMB in January 2025, marking the first year-on-year increase since March 2024 [2] - Household credit remains subdued, with short-term loans contracting by 50 billion RMB and long-term loans increasing by 494 billion RMB, both lower than January 2024 levels [2] 5. **Infrastructure and Property Concerns**: - The infrastructure construction pipeline backlog is shrinking, indicating a potential decrease in future demand for ferrous metals [3] - Property market data remains weak, leading to cautious market sentiment regarding ferrous metals [3] Additional Important Points - **CNY Holiday Impact**: The strong TSF figures in January were achieved despite part of the Chinese New Year holiday falling within the month, which typically affects economic activity [1] - **Market Sentiment**: The market is expected to remain cautious until there is a clear inflection point in property data, which continues to be a concern for the metals sector [3]
China Hardware_ China Smartphone Dec-24_FY24 Sell-in Shipments +20.8%_+6.5% YoY
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Smartphone Market - **Date**: February 14, 2025 Key Points 1. **Sell-in Shipments Growth**: - December 2024 saw a 20.8% year-over-year increase in sell-in shipments, totaling 32.4 million units. - Full-year 2024 shipments reached 294 million units, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year growth [1][1][1]. 2. **Quarterly Performance**: - Fourth quarter 2024 shipments were 88.5 million units, marking a 4.3% year-over-year increase. - Monthly sell-in shipments improved by 15% month-over-month from November 2024 [1][1][1]. 3. **Sell-out Shipments**: - Total sell-out shipments for FY24 were approximately 274 million units, indicating a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting inventory build-up by the end of 2024 [1][1][1]. 4. **Factors Driving Sales**: - The month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter improvements in sales are attributed to: - Restocking for new model launches and early Chinese New Year effects. - City-level and provincial handset subsidies announced. - Resilient sales from domestic brands, which offset disappointing iPhone sales in China [1][1][1]. 5. **Impact of National Subsidies**: - National subsidies are believed to help digest inventories, aligning with component checks conducted [1][1][1]. 6. **Outlook for January 2025**: - Anticipated decline in January sell-in shipments both month-over-month and year-over-year due to the Chinese New Year impact and high comparison base [1][1][1]. 7. **Positive Outlook for 2025**: - The outlook for the China smartphone market in 2025 is positive, driven by continued strength in restocking, supported by handset subsidies and advancements in AI and specifications [1][1][1]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the competitive landscape, emphasizing the resilience of domestic brands in the face of challenges posed by international competitors like Apple [1][1][1]. - **Inventory Management**: The analysis suggests that inventory management strategies will be crucial in navigating the anticipated fluctuations in demand during the early months of 2025 [1][1][1]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China smartphone market.
Where to Invest Now_ The Tariff-Man Cometh (1)
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - **Industry**: US Equity Market Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The S&P 500 index is projected to rise by 7% to 6500 by year-end 2025, with adjusted EPS expected to reach $268 in 2025, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth [3][5][14] 2. **Earnings Growth**: S&P 500 earnings growth was 13% in Q4 2024, with median stock EPS growth at 7% year-over-year [14][17] 3. **Economic Growth Forecast**: US GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 2.8% to 2.4% in 2025, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 2.5% growth rate [8][9] 4. **Sector Recommendations**: Overweight recommendations for Software & Services, Health Care, and Materials sectors [4][153] 5. **Investment Strategies**: Focus on 'Magnificent 7' stocks, AI-enabled revenue stocks, and US stocks insulated from trade policy risks [4][26] Additional Important Insights 1. **Valuation Metrics**: The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 22x, indicating a high valuation compared to historical averages [29][35] 2. **Investor Sentiment**: The US Equity Sentiment Indicator is above average, indicating strong positioning and flows from various investor categories [47] 3. **Trade Policy Risks**: The effective tariff rate is at a historical low of 3%, but potential tariffs could increase this to 8% [58][59] 4. **M&A Activity**: A forecasted 25% increase in completed US M&A transactions in 2025, particularly in strategic and sponsor deals over $100 million [168] 5. **AI Adoption**: 50% of S&P 500 companies discussed AI in their Q4 2024 earnings calls, indicating a growing focus on technology [133] Market Dynamics 1. **Equity Market Composition**: The top 7 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 32% of the index's market capitalization, reflecting a significant concentration [111] 2. **Investor Allocation**: Investors currently allocate over 54% of their financial assets to equities, the highest level recorded [40] 3. **Global Comparison**: US equities have outperformed global equities over the past 15 years, with the US comprising 56% of the global equity market but only 44% of earnings [78][81] Risks and Challenges 1. **Economic Policy Uncertainty**: The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at one of its highest levels in 30 years, posing risks to market stability [52] 2. **Labor Market Concerns**: Immigration levels are projected to average 750K annually, down from 1 million pre-pandemic, impacting labor supply [55] 3. **Sector-Specific Risks**: Health Care is trading at historically low relative valuations, with policy uncertainty being a key risk factor [156] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the US equity market as analyzed by Goldman Sachs.
US Rates Strategy_ Staying Long Duration While Raising UST Yield Forecasts
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US Treasury market and interest rate strategy, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and economic outlook. Core Insights and Arguments - **US Treasury Yield Forecasts**: The forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield has been raised from 3.55% to 4.00% due to fewer and later expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with risks skewed towards lower yields rather than higher [6][39][42]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to maintain long positions in 5-year Treasury notes, avoiding duration-neutral yield-curve trades as neither steepeners nor flatteners appear attractive given recent economic data and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rhetoric [6][39][41]. - **Improper Payments**: The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimated that the US federal government made $236 billion in improper payments in FY23, highlighting potential areas for cost savings through government efficiency initiatives [14][21][31]. - **Government Shutdown Risks**: A government shutdown is anticipated on March 14 unless Congress passes necessary appropriations, with a looming 1% discretionary spending cut on April 30 [12][31]. - **Debt Ceiling Increase**: Discussions around increasing the debt ceiling may involve tying it to appropriations bills, which could require bipartisan support [10][11]. Additional Important Content - **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The core PCE inflation forecast for January is at 0.303% month-over-month, with investor focus shifting back to tariffs and fiscal deficits as inflation data stabilizes [9][45]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The potential implementation of tariffs could lead to a 0.3% to 0.9% increase in headline PCE, while negatively impacting real GDP growth by 0.7% to 1.4% [53]. - **Improper Payments Breakdown**: In FY23, overpayments accounted for 74% of improper payments, with significant errors concentrated in Medicare, Medicaid, and pandemic-related assistance programs [26][27]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing concern among investors regarding the Fed's ability to respond to economic slowdowns, which may lead to increased demand for long-duration assets [43][52]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the US Treasury market, the implications of Federal Reserve policies, and the potential for government efficiency improvements. Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-duration strategy while being mindful of the risks associated with fiscal policy changes and economic growth forecasts.
China Oil, Gas and Chemical Thematic Research_Eyes on fertiliser sector, with spring ploughing approaching
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of the Conference Call on China's Fertiliser Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **fertiliser sector** in China, particularly **potash**, **urea**, and **phosphate fertilisers** [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Fertiliser Price Trends - **Potash prices** have risen significantly since Q4 2024, with domestic average selling prices (ASP) exceeding **Rmb 2,700/t** [7]. - **Urea prices** experienced a slight rebound due to agricultural restocking before the Chinese New Year (CNY), but this was short-lived as production increased post-CNY [8]. - **Phosphate fertiliser prices** remain muted due to low purchasing intentions from downstream producers, with stable ASP around **Rmb 1,000/t** [9]. Influencing Factors on Fertiliser Market 1. **Agricultural Product Prices**: Strong international soybean and corn prices are expected to boost domestic fertiliser demand as China approaches the spring ploughing season [3][11]. 2. **Export Policy Changes**: Urea export volumes have sharply declined due to legal inspections, suggesting potential policy relaxation could ease domestic supply pressures [3][12]. 3. **Energy Consumption Policies**: Stricter regulations on energy consumption are expected to constrain urea and phosphate fertiliser supply [3][13]. Production and Capacity Insights - Limited production growth is anticipated for potash, with Asia-Potash expected to increase production by **1mt** in 2025 [4]. - Urea production capacity additions for 2025 are projected at **4.5mt**, but high inventory levels and subdued profits are concerning [4][29]. - No capacity additions for MAP/DAP are expected in 2025-26, although upstream phosphate ore projects are planned [4][48]. Stock Recommendations - **Asia-Potash** and **Hualu-hengsheng** are recommended for investment, with potential upside risks linked to production growth and price recovery [5][80]. Risks and Considerations - The fertiliser sector faces risks from fluctuating international oil prices, uncertain global economic growth, and potential oversupply from new capacity coming online [64][66]. - Specific risks for Asia-Potash include policy risks and commodity price declines, while Hualu-hengsheng faces challenges from reduced demand and regulatory tightening [66][66]. Additional Important Insights - The **fixed-bed production process** accounts for nearly **25%** of China's urea capacity, which is under pressure due to high costs and low efficiency, potentially leading to the exit of these facilities [4][34]. - The **export volume** of urea has drastically decreased from an average of **7mt** (2010-2021) to **250kt** in 2024, indicating significant supply-demand pressure domestically [3][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the fertiliser market in China, highlighting key trends, influencing factors, and investment recommendations.
China Data Centers_ Likely In Early Domestic Capex Cycle, Race Ahead, Buy VNET_GDS
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of China Data Centers Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Data Centers** industry, particularly the domestic capital expenditure (capex) cycle related to artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers (DC) [1][2]. Key Companies Discussed - **VNET**: Expected to be a core beneficiary of the domestic AI demand due to strong landbank resources [1][2]. - **GDS**: Anticipated to benefit from rapid domestic DC move-in and increasing overseas DC deployment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Early Stages of Domestic AI Capex Cycle**: - Rising AI and DC-related capex from domestic cloud service providers (CSPs) indicates the beginning of a domestic AI capex up-cycle, expected to last for 2-3 years [1][2]. - Anticipated GPU-derived AI demand is projected to reach at least **500MW** in 2025 [2]. 2. **VNET's Competitive Advantage**: - VNET's strong landbank in Ulanqab and Huailai (over **1.5GW**) positions it well to capitalize on the AI capex cycle [2]. - The company is expected to see a **25%** CAGR in EBITDA from FY24 to FY26, outperforming regional peers [4]. 3. **GDS's Market Position**: - GDS is expected to experience a faster move-in and higher utilization rates, benefiting from overseas DC deployment despite limited near-term domestic AI demand [1][2]. - GDS's target price has been raised from **US$25.10** to **US$51.20**, reflecting a 15x FY25E EV/EBITDA valuation [4]. 4. **DeepSeek's Role**: - The development of DeepSeek is enhancing cost efficiency and performance of small to medium-sized AI models, positively impacting VNET's retail business, which is projected to grow by **5%** in FY26 [3]. 5. **Valuation Metrics**: - VNET and GDS are trading at approximately **12-13x FY25E EV/EBITDA**, significantly lower than Asia/global peers averaging **25x/23x** [4]. - VNET's target price has been adjusted from **US$4** to **US$16.10**, while GDS's target price has been adjusted to **US$51.20** [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Utilization Rates**: - GDS's utilization rate is expected to exceed previous highs, indicating strong operational performance [16]. - VNET's utilization rate is projected to gradually improve following significant build-out [23]. - **Capex Estimates**: - VNET is expanding its capex to capture AI demand, supporting a robust EBITDA growth trajectory [26]. - **Revisions to Financial Estimates**: - VNET's revenue estimates for FY24-26 have been revised upwards by **1.4% to 6.4%**, with EBITDA estimates increased by **2.5% to 13.8%** [34]. - GDS's revenue estimates for FY24-26 have been adjusted downwards, reflecting challenges in achieving previous growth targets [36]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the China Data Centers industry and the positioning of VNET and GDS amidst the evolving market landscape.
China Autos & Shared Mobility_ From Auto to Humanoid Robot Suppliers
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of Conference Call on China Autos & Shared Mobility Industry Overview - The focus is on the automotive and humanoid robot supply chain in China, particularly suppliers for Tesla and their potential to transition from automotive components to humanoid robotics [1][2][9]. Key Companies Discussed 1. **Tuopu (601689.SS)** - Positioned as the best candidate for humanoid robot supply due to strong existing businesses and potential for actuator assembly [1][2]. - YTD share price increase of 32-42% [2]. - Earnings estimates for 2025-26 raised by 12-19% due to stronger EV customer volumes [4][30]. - Targeting over 30% YoY growth in 2025, with revenue from humanoid actuator assembly projected to significantly increase [28][29]. 2. **Sanhua (002050.SZ)** - Expected to grow slower than Tuopu, with a forecasted 15% earnings growth in 2025 [4][31]. - Price target raised by 38% to Rmb29, reflecting stronger-than-expected cooling parts revenue [34]. 3. **Xusheng (603305.SS)** - Downgraded to Underweight due to increasing competition and declining revenue [4][35]. - Revenue fell 8% YoY in 9M24, with earnings down 43% YoY [35]. - Price target raised by 30% to Rmb13, but still under pressure [38]. 4. **Recodeal (688800.SS)** - Also rated Underweight, facing margin pressure despite a 53% YoY revenue growth in 9M24 [39][42]. - Price target raised by 131% to Rmb37, but existing EV business remains under pressure [42]. Market Dynamics - The market views Tesla's EV suppliers as potential candidates for humanoid robot supply, with significant share price rallies observed [2][10]. - Despite no confirmed orders, commercialization of humanoid robots is anticipated in 2025, with major players planning to produce thousands of units [2][9]. Financial Performance and Valuation - **Tuopu**: - Preliminary 4Q24 earnings between Rmb621-921 million, up 12% to 66% YoY [27]. - Revenue from auto electronics grew 906% YoY in 2024 [27]. - Price target increased by 45% to Rmb80 based on DCF valuation [30][50]. - **Sanhua**: - Management guided for 2025-30 CAGRs of 20% in EV parts and 5-10% in cooling parts [31]. - **Xusheng**: - Revenue and earnings under pressure, with a target of 30% YoY growth in 2025, which is considered challenging [36]. - **Recodeal**: - Revenue growth of 53% YoY but earnings growth only 11% YoY due to margin pressure [39]. Investment Risks and Considerations - Margin pressure from EV price cuts and tariff risks are highlighted as potential concerns for investors [3]. - The valuations of humanoid suppliers have surged above their 4-year averages, raising questions about whether they are too stretched [3][15]. - The potential for downside exists if competition intensifies or if the expected growth in humanoid robotics does not materialize as projected [56][61]. Conclusion - The automotive supply chain in China is transitioning towards humanoid robotics, with key players like Tuopu positioned to benefit significantly. However, investors should remain cautious of market dynamics, competitive pressures, and valuation concerns as the industry evolves.
CEEMEA Economics Analyst_ CEEMEA Outlook — Contrasting Risks
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of CEEMEA Economic Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) economic outlook for 2025, highlighting growth prospects, inflation trends, and monetary policy adjustments. Key Points Economic Growth - CEEMEA economies began 2025 positively, with growth accelerating to a 3.4% annualized pace in early 2025, driven by stronger performance in South Africa and Turkey [2][5][21] - Growth estimates for 2024 have been revised from 2.2% to 2.5%, and for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.9%, with Turkey showing the most significant upward revision [4][21] Inflation Trends - Underlying inflation is declining across most CEEMEA economies, although recent data has shown unexpected increases in Hungary, Russia, Turkey, Egypt, and Ukraine [4][25] - The inflation forecast for 2025 has been revised higher, particularly for Hungary, Russia, Turkey, and Egypt, reflecting mixed developments in inflation dynamics [35][37] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The timing for the next rate cuts has been pushed back: South Africa, Egypt, and Ghana to Q2; Poland, Hungary, and Romania to Q3; and Russia and Kazakhstan to Q4 [4][39] - Central banks are adopting a cautious approach to monetary easing due to increased external uncertainties and higher-than-expected inflation in some countries [39][46] Risks to Economic Outlook 1. **Potential Ceasefire in Ukraine**: Speculation around a ceasefire deal has increased, with a 70% probability indicated by betting markets. The economic implications depend on the nature of the ceasefire, with potential benefits for CEE-4 countries [8][12] 2. **US Tariff Increases**: The risk of increased tariffs poses a significant threat to CEEMEA growth, particularly for export-oriented economies reliant on the auto sector and EU trade [15][16] 3. **Middle East Uncertainty**: Increased uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding US involvement in Gaza, could impact regional risk markets and economic stability [17][19] Regional Insights - The CEE-4 countries (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic) are particularly sensitive to the risks associated with the Ukraine conflict and potential US tariffs [45][46] - Turkey's economic activity is returning to trend, with expectations for higher growth and inflation in the medium term [6][21] Conclusion - The CEEMEA economic outlook for 2025 is characterized by a mix of positive growth momentum and significant external risks. The interplay between these factors will be crucial in shaping the economic landscape for the region in the coming year [7][45]
Asia in Focus_ China_ Monetary policy dilemma_ financial stability vs. pro-growth easing (Chen)
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the monetary policy landscape in China, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its balancing act between financial stability and pro-growth easing [3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The PBOC has shifted its monetary policy stance to moderately loose from prudent, indicating a more proactive easing approach amidst domestic economic challenges [4][5]. - Despite expectations for significant policy rate cuts, the PBOC has prioritized financial stability, leading to elevated interbank repo rates and a delay in required reserve ratio (RRR) cuts [3][4][10]. - The central bank's recent actions reflect a long-standing dilemma: supporting economic growth through policy easing while maintaining financial stability, particularly in the context of foreign exchange (FX) management [5][6][24]. - The report forecasts two 50 basis point (bp) RRR cuts in Q1 and Q3 of 2025, alongside two 20bp policy rate cuts in Q2 and Q4, to address persistent deflationary pressures [3][31][35]. - The average RRR in China is currently around 6.6%, which is higher than in many major economies, suggesting room for further cuts [40]. Important but Overlooked Details - The PBOC's balance sheet shrank by RMB 1.6 trillion in 2024, raising concerns about monetary tightening, primarily due to a 100bp RRR cut that released RMB 2 trillion of liquidity [19][21]. - The report highlights that the PBOC's liquidity management strategy has evolved, with a shift from medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to increased use of reverse repos [17][20]. - FX stability remains a top priority for the PBOC, with the USD/CNY fixing kept below 7.20 to manage market sentiment amid ongoing US-China trade tensions [24][25]. - The anticipated fiscal package at the "Two Sessions" and accelerated government bond issuance are expected to facilitate RRR cuts, although the PBOC may opt for low-profile tools like reverse repos if bond market conditions worsen [10][35]. Conclusion - The PBOC's current monetary policy reflects a complex interplay of domestic economic needs and external pressures, with a cautious approach to easing that prioritizes financial stability over aggressive rate cuts [5][6][24].
Hardware & Networking_ Carrier Capex Tracker_ Recovery On Track, Albeit Slightly Softer, for Telcos; Cable MSO Capex Better than Expected But Mixed Trends By Customer. Thu Feb 13 2025
2025-02-18 05:16
Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Telecommunications and Cable/Broadband Operators - **Companies Covered**: AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, Charter, Lumen Key Points and Arguments 1. **Capex Growth for US Telecom Service Providers**: - Aggregate capex for US Telecom Service Providers increased by **22% year-over-year (y/y)** to **$14.3 billion** in **4Q24**. This growth is driving FY24 capex to **$48.0 billion**, which is better than expected, despite being a **-8% y/y** decline compared to FY23 [2][3] 2. **2025 Capex Projections**: - For **2025**, aggregate capex is projected to grow by **3% y/y** to **$49.5 billion**, slightly lower than previous estimates. T-Mobile is expected to increase capex by **8% y/y**, Verizon by **5% y/y**, while AT&T is expected to remain flat [3][4] 3. **Cable and Broadband Operators Performance**: - Aggregate capex for cable and broadband operators rose by **14% y/y** in **4Q24**, exceeding expectations. FY24 capex is now estimated at **$22.8 billion**, a **1% y/y** increase. For **2025**, capex is expected to rise by **7% y/y** to **$24.4 billion** [4][8] 4. **Mixed Trends Among Cable Operators**: - While Lumen and Charter are expected to increase spending y/y, Comcast is projected to have flat to declining capex [4][8] 5. **Equipment Suppliers Outlook**: - Equipment suppliers are anticipated to experience stronger rebounds compared to the overall capex recovery in 2025, due to easier comparisons from inventory digestion challenges faced in 2024 [2][4] Additional Important Insights 1. **Capex Tracker Updates**: - The capex tracker has been updated based on recent earnings reports from major telecom and cable operators, indicating a pull-forward in capital investments from **1Q25** into **4Q24** [2][3] 2. **Historical Capex Trends**: - Historical data shows fluctuations in capex for US Telcos, with a notable decline in 2023 followed by a recovery trajectory in 2024 and 2025 [8][12] 3. **Analyst Contact Information**: - Analysts involved in the report include Samik Chatterjee, Joseph Cardoso, Priyanka Thapa, and Manmohanpreet Singh, with their contact details provided for further inquiries [5][14] 4. **Investment Considerations**: - Investors are advised to consider the mixed trends in spending among different operators and the overall recovery in the telecom sector when making investment decisions [2][4] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the performance and projections of the telecommunications and cable industries, along with specific company forecasts and trends.