本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research China Internet Sector Our updated thoughts into 2025 Internet sector outperformed in 2024 KWEB rose 8% (HSI +18%) in 2024 with stronger performance in Q4 amid government stimulus hope. Our observations: 1) bottom-up drivers continued to deliver significant alpha, looking at the strong performance of Trip.com/Meituan/Tencent/Bili vs PDD/VIPS; 2) valuations found support at 5-6x PE (eg, Hello Group/Weibo) as long as company earnings sta ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 08:22 AM GMT Midea Group Co Ltd. | Asia Pacific Research Tactical Idea We believe the share price will rise relative to the country index over the next 45 days. NDRC announced details about the 2025 consumer goods trade-in program with wider coverage scope and an increase in the number of subsidized air conditioning (AC) units. The policy details are slightly better than expected, in particular for AC. Leading home appliance names like Midea should ben ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research U.S. Transportation 2025 Outlook: Gradual Cycle Turn Points To Modest Growth; Focus On Idiosyncratic Drivers We expect a muted freight backdrop and gradual cycle turn We are adjusting our 4Q forecasts and also lowering our 2025 EPS estimates for the railroads and also LTL names ODFL, SAIA, and XPO. Our new EPS estimates for both groups reflect the expectation of less growth in carloads / shipments and more modest margin expansion. The ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Healthcare Outlook 2025: Structural opportunities amid uncertainty Risks skewed to the upside; we prefer biotech and online pharmacies Biopharma BD momentum to continue; positive on near-term CRO earnings We think biotech could outperform on companies' solid fundamentals, backed by the government's supportive policies on innovation. We believe the historically high level of Chinese out-licensing deals proves China's biopharma R& ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy 2025 & near-term A-share outlook in pictures Near-term outlook: range-bound trade with limited downside The market sentiment soured recently with Wind all A-share index seeing a loss of 8% since 13 Dec 2024 due to (1) potential tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty; (2) a lack of policy easing details till Two Sessions in Mar 2025; (3) weaker Rmb exchanged rate against the US dollar and falling Chinese government ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 On the downside, demand remains a key risk, with a slowing Chinese economy in focus. We are relatively cautious on 2025 oil demand growth (+1.1Mb/d), including for China (+0.2Mb/d). Slower Chinese demand (UBSe +4.0% GDP) and/or repercussions on tariffs and other headwinds could still bring demand growth lower. A larger surplus and lower oil price, falling below $70/bbl, could increase tensions within OPEC+ and risk weaker compliance. On potential stronger US supply gr ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document focuses on the **US Inflation Monitor** and provides insights into the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** for December 2024, highlighting trends in core and headline inflation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Core CPI Expectations**: Core CPI is expected to rise by **0.26% month-over-month (m/m)** in December, translating to a **3.3% year-over-year (y/y)** increase, which is **5 basis points (bp)** lower than November's figure [6][17][36]. 2. **Headline CPI Increase**: The headline CPI is projected to increase by **0.37% m/m** and **2.9% y/y**, driven by seasonally adjusted energy inflation [6][17][36]. 3. **Core Goods Inflation**: Core goods inflation is decelerating but remains positive, with an expected increase of **0.11%** in December, down from previous months [9][12]. 4. **Rents and Housing**: Rents are expected to accelerate, with both primary residence rents and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) projected to rise, although they will remain below the underlying trend for the year [7][12]. 5. **Core Services**: Core services inflation, excluding housing, is anticipated to decrease, particularly in categories like hotels and airfares, which are expected to show a deceleration [7][16]. 6. **Energy Prices**: Seasonally adjusted retail gasoline prices are expected to increase, contributing to the overall rise in headline inflation despite a nominal drop in observed gasoline prices [31][32]. 7. **Car Prices**: The relationship between used and new car prices is highlighted, with expectations of deceleration in both categories due to fading hurricane effects [19][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Seasonal Factors**: Seasonal adjustments may lead to downward bias in December's inflation readings, particularly in housing-related metrics [24][25]. 2. **PCE Implications**: The forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is set at **0.21% m/m**, indicating a stronger performance compared to the previous month [36][37]. 3. **Long-term Inflation Trends**: The annualized 3-month pace for core PCE is expected to remain stable at **2.4%**, with projections indicating a gradual decrease in inflation rates over the next few years [38][39]. 4. **Market Volatility**: The document notes ongoing volatility in shelter costs, with expectations of short-term acceleration in rents despite a longer-term downward trend [12][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding inflation trends in the US economy as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders and investors.

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Pharmaceutical * **Company**: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) * **Conference Date**: January 8, 2025 Key Points **1. Sales and Profit Growth**: * **2025 Outlook**: CSPC expects positive sales and net profit growth in 2025. * **4Q24 Performance**: 4Q24 remained soft due to declining legacy drugs. * **Product Sales**: Duomeisu sales are expected to drop by <Rmb100mn after the 10th round of VBP, while NBP should see slight positive growth. * **Innovative Drugs**: Sales of innovative drugs are expected to grow by Rmb2bn, led by rhTNK-tPA, omalizumab, and gumetinib. * **API Segment**: The API segment is expected to be healthy in 2025, with stable caffeine ASP and VC ASP inflecting. * **Net Profit**: Net profit is expected to outpace sales, off a low 2024 base. * **Stock Repurchase and Dividends**: CSPC will continue to repurchase stocks under its HK$5bn buyback program and reward investors with generous dividends in 2025. **2. R&D Updates**: * **EGFR ADC**: Ph3 trials for NSCLC and HNC are likely to be initiated in 2025. * **Nectin-4 ADC and Simmitinib (TKI)**: Both are expected to have readouts in 2025. * **KN026, TG103, and Generic Semaglutide**: All expected to be filed for NDA. * **Out-licensing Deals**: CSPC aims to complete 1-2 out-licensing deals in 2025. **3. Valuation and Risks**: * **Valuation Methodology**: Discounted cash flow methodology with a cost of equity of 11% and a WACC of 11%. * **Upside Risks**: Stronger-than-expected sales ramp-up, better-than-expected margin improvement, pipeline advancement, increasing business development, API price surge. * **Downside Risks**: API price slump, pipeline failures or delays, rising operating costs, further government price cuts or reimbursement controls, business development setback, faster-than-expected rollout of NBP generics. **4. Stock Rating**: * **Rating**: Overweight * **Price Target**: HK$6.60 * **Up/Downside to Price Target (%)**: 49 Additional Information * **Industry View**: Attractive * **Fiscal Year Ending**: December * **EPS (Rmb)**: 0.49, 0.45, 0.44, 0.45 * **Revenue, net (Rmb mn)**: 31,450, 30,092, 30,154, 30,595 * **EBITDA (Rmb mn)**: 8,554, 8,103, 8,100, 8,434 * **ModelWare net inc (Rmb mn)**: 5,873, 5,359, 5,270, 5,396 * **P/E**: 13.3, 10.0, 9.4, 9.2 * **P/BV**: 2.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.1 * **EV/EBITDA**: 7.1, 4.2, 3.3, 3.0 * **Div yld (%)**: 1.5, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2 * **ROE (%)**: 19.4, 16.1, 14.1, 13.0

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - SMID Cap Growth SMID Cap Growth Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell 2500G Smid Cap Growth managers trailed the Russell 2500 Growth by -0.6% in 2024 (13.3% vs. 13.9%), net of fees. Although PMs lagged the benchmark by -0.4% during 4Q, they outperformed by 2.0% in December. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.4% to performance in 2024, driven ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 We think the rebound in LNG truck demand in Q125E implies LNG heavy-duty truck (HDT) demand in 2025E would remain flat YoY. We believe Weichai's expansion into the EV supply chain will reduce the risk of shrinking internal combustion engine (ICE) market share. Our revised earnings estimates imply 10% earnings growth in 2025E vs. flat previously. abc 7 January 2025 Global Research Weichai Power - A Risk-reward attractive, upgrade to Buy Improved 2025 outlook; attractiv ...