本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research U.S. Software Latest Enterprise AI Survey Summary In this third iteration of our enterprise AI survey, we again leveraged the UBS Evidence Lab data team to survey IT execs at 125 organizations about their AI plans at the chip, cloud infrastructure, model, application software, data and security layers, with a focus on incremental changes in feedback from our previous May 2024 survey (see report here). T ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Spirits Industry Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the spirits industry in China, highlighting trends and long-term drivers for Western-style spirits [1][2]. Key Participants - Frédéric Noyere, Managing Director at Jebsen Beverages, a leading distributor and brand owner in China, with over 30 years of experience in the region [1][2]. Relevant Companies - The call mentions several key players in the spirits market: - Diageo - Pernod Ricard - Rémy Cointreau - Davide Campari [1][3]. Core Discussion Points 1. **Consumer Trends**: - Concerns regarding the economy and property market are influencing consumer behavior, leading to a "trade up vs trade down" scenario [5]. 2. **Channel and Regional Differences**: - Identification of robust consumer environments and pockets of weakness across different channels and regions [5]. 3. **Channel Evolution**: - The impact of restrictions on conspicuous consumption, particularly in gifting, and the growth of livehouses compared to large format nightlife venues [5]. 4. **Inventory Levels**: - Discussion on excess inventory levels at wholesalers, retailers, and end consumers [5]. 5. **Cognac Outlook**: - Concerns about downtrading risks and whether new generations are as committed to cognac as previous ones, including current consumption trends [5]. 6. **Scotch Outlook**: - Exploration of recruitment into the Scotch category, its appeal, and its relationship with cognac, including potential benefits from consumers trading down from cognac to Scotch [5]. 7. **Baijiu Outlook**: - Potential rejuvenation of the Baijiu category through innovations such as lower ABV products, new recipes, and fresh packaging [5]. 8. **Other Imports in China**: - Outlook for wine and champagne, as well as other Western-style spirits, particularly in the context of a growing cocktail culture [5]. 9. **Competitive Environment**: - Analysis of which companies are best positioned to succeed in China, differences in business models among Diageo, Pernod Ricard, and Rémy Cointreau, and the performance of other Western-style spirits companies [5]. 10. **Industry Regulation and Risks**: - Discussion on risks stemming from common prosperity initiatives and clampdowns on public sector consumption [5]. Company-Specific Risks and Valuations - **Davide Campari**: Risks include integration, macroeconomic factors, and tax & regulation [9]. - **Diageo**: Risks include macroeconomic conditions, foreign exchange rates, and excise/regulation [10]. - **Pernod Ricard**: Risks include macroeconomic factors, excise, foreign exchange, and regulation [11]. - **Rémy Cointreau**: Risks include macroeconomic conditions, inventory volatility, and exposure to the Chinese market [12]. Additional Insights - Frédéric Noyere's extensive background includes significant roles at Moët-Hennessy, providing him with deep insights into competitive positioning and distribution channels for major brands in the China market [6][7]. Conclusion - The call provides a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the spirits industry in China, emphasizing consumer behavior, competitive dynamics, and regulatory risks that could impact investment opportunities in this sector.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research European Energy Too easy to be bearish The European Energy sector lagged the market in 2024 driven by the combination of EPS downgrades (-25%) and uncertainties related to OPEC+ policy. However, looking ahead, we think fears of a sharp decline in oil prices are overdone and see a number of positive developments, including the return of EPS momentum, falling breakevens and transition strategies evolving in favour of RoACE. Meanwhile, t ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 08:21 AM GMT Semiconductors | North America CES Day 1 Recap: NVDA MU INTC QCOM ON SLAB AEVA We provide a summary of several public or private meetings from the consumer electronics show. NVIDIA had the biggest news, though in consumer/auto (as should be expected given the nature of CES) rather than data center. Outside of AI, other markets remain mixed. NVDA: CEO Jensen Huang's keynote in front of 6,000, and Q&A session with a large group of financial ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Focus**: Economic outlook for 2025, including GDP growth, wage trends, inflation, monetary policy, and political risks Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The real GDP growth rate for FY2025 is projected to recover to 1.2%, exceeding the potential growth rate of approximately 0.8%. This is an improvement from the FY2024 estimate of 0.5%. The main drivers are expected to be sustained high wage increases supporting consumption, along with a gradual recovery in delayed capital investment [4][9][11]. 2. **Wage Increase Trends**: A significant wage increase of 5.1% was achieved in the 2024 spring labor negotiations, the highest in 33 years. For FY2025, a similar wage increase of around 5% is anticipated, driven by a genuine labor shortage and a shift in corporate wage increase awareness [19][21][25]. 3. **Inflation Outlook**: The inflation rate is expected to exceed 2% in the first half of 2025 but is projected to slow down in the latter half. However, due to stable service inflation, it is unlikely to fall significantly below the 2% target, remaining generally consistent with it [33][35][36]. 4. **Monetary Policy Normalization**: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to delay its next interest rate hike from January to March 2025, with subsequent hikes pushed from July to October. This cautious approach is influenced by domestic and international political uncertainties [47][48]. 5. **Political Risks**: The main risk factor is the tariff policy under the Trump administration, which could have significant secondary effects on the Japanese economy through reduced demand for Japanese goods due to a slowdown in the US and China. Additionally, domestic political instability could delay the passage of the FY2025 budget, negatively impacting corporate and consumer sentiment [17][18][18]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Business Cycle Transition**: Japan is expected to transition from a recovery phase to an expansion phase in 2025, following the US economy's lead with a lag of about six months [5][6]. 2. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The labor market is experiencing a structural change, with a significant increase in wage awareness among companies due to a genuine labor shortage. This is characterized as the "Second Lewis Turning Point," indicating a shift in labor supply dynamics [25][27]. 3. **Inflation Expectations**: Long-term inflation expectations among businesses are stabilizing around 2%, which could influence future wage negotiations and pricing strategies [43][44]. 4. **Service Price Dynamics**: The pass-through of labor costs to service prices is expected to occur gradually, impacting inflation rates over time [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Japanese economy as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the anticipated growth, wage trends, inflation expectations, and the potential risks posed by both domestic and international factors.

Summary of China Healthcare 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Report Date**: January 2025 - **Research Firm**: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - The healthcare sector in China is navigating through macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on achieving certainty amidst these challenges [6][58] Government Support and Policy Changes - The Basic Medical Insurance (BMI) fund is projected to remain balanced in 2024, alleviating concerns over healthcare spending [6] - Potential fiscal stimulus could enhance BMI funding and support public hospitals [8] - A Medical Insurance Law may be passed in 2025, which could define the government's role in BMI funding [8] Financial Performance and Trends - The accumulated surplus in the BMI pooling account for FY24 is expected to exceed that of FY23, indicating a positive trend in healthcare funding [8] - The growth rate of BMI pooling account income and expenditure is both at 8.9% year-on-year from January to October 2024 [8] Drug Pricing and Innovation - The average price cut from the 10th National Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) is estimated to be between 70-75%, indicating increased competition in the pharmaceutical market [15] - Innovative drugs are being added to the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) at an accelerated pace, with a negotiation success rate exceeding 90% [15] Market Dynamics - The healthcare market is seeing a shift towards commercial healthcare insurance (CHI) as a supplement to government funding, with expectations of strong policy support [8] - The demand for innovative drugs remains robust, with a projected growth of 11% year-on-year in 1H24 [70] Challenges and Risks - The healthcare sector is facing challenges from geopolitical uncertainties and the lingering effects of anti-corruption measures, which have impacted surgery numbers and overall healthcare spending [58] - The funding environment for healthcare venture capital and private equity remains under pressure, with a decline in funding observed in 2024 [59] Future Growth Potential - The healthcare sector's market capitalization in China is significantly lower compared to the EU and US, suggesting substantial room for growth [73] - The aging population and chronic disease management are expected to drive long-term healthcare demand, supported by government initiatives [72] Investment Sentiment - Foreign ownership in the China healthcare sector has declined to approximately 3.8% of the total market cap, indicating a cautious investment environment [55] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery in healthcare IPOs and increased interest in listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [63] Additional Important Insights - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) into chronic disease management is being promoted by the National Health Commission (NHC) [72] - The healthcare sector's contribution to China's total stock market cap is around 5%, which is low compared to other countries, indicating potential for future growth [76] This comprehensive overview highlights the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare industry, emphasizing the interplay between government policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 Asia Solar Equities Solar patent disputes gain momentum Asia Patent disputes heating up: In a sector that has seen its share of intense competition in product pricing, solar producers in the first echelon have been involved in several patent disputes over the past two years. Patent disputes started to gain momentum in 2024 (see table in page 2). Stepping into 2025, the first case came as Jinko Solar sued LONGi Green (601012 CH, RMB15.24, Hold) for paten ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:31 PM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) From To Price Target HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Base Case HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) has been updated. Reason for change In 2024, Hainan was the major drag on China's travel retail market with offline duty- free (DF) sal ...

Industry Overview * **WFE Market**: Expected to contract in 2025 with a -6% YoY growth rate, but expected to recover with a +6% growth rate in 2026. [4] * **Front-End SPE**: Demand is solid for cleaning equipment, particularly from companies like Tokyo Electron and SCREEN Holdings. [8] * **Back-End SPE**: Demand is more robust than front-end, driven by strong demand for AI devices and CoWoS applications. [9] * **Advanced Packaging**: Evolving rapidly with various types of advanced chip package technologies like 3D, 2.5D, and 2.1D/2.2D/2.3D. [10] * **Hybrid Bonding**: Increasingly adopted in advanced packaging, with Disco leading in hybrid bonding systems. [12] * **Plasma Dicing**: A promising technology in hybrid bonding, with KLA leading in commercialization and Panasonic Connect pursuing the technology. [15] Company Analysis * **Advantest**: Tester market bottomed out and expected to grow as demand for devices with long test times increases. Target P/E of 20.0x. [21] * **Disco**: Strong position in hybrid bonding processes with several systems for high-cleanliness grinders and edge trimmers. Target P/E of 25.1x. [18] * **Tokyo Electron**: Production lines for cleaning systems at full capacity, expecting high demand to continue. [8] * **SCREEN Holdings**: Production lines for cleaning systems at full capacity, expecting high demand to continue. [8] Risks * **Upside Risks**: SiC related equipment taking off, growth for HBM grinders, recovery in smartphone and semiconductor markets. [19, 22] * **Downside Risks**: Sluggish global demand for electronics, longer replacement cycle for smartphones, commoditization of SPEs. [20, 23]