更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 08:22 PM GMT US Economics | North America M Idea Employment Report Preview: Solid, but slowing We forecast 150k in December payrolls, following November's 227k rise that we estimate at 127k ex storms and strikes. We see no further fundamental weakening in December, but payrolls have slowed from earlier in the year. The UE rate increases to 4.3% and AHE rises 0.3%. Exhibit 1: Employment forecast details | Employment Report: Forecasts & Recent History | | | | | | | ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： US Economic Perspectives Fed funds in 2024 At the end of January, the funds rate was expected to fall 137 bps this year. After the Q1 inflation data, in April the market expected the funds rate to fall just 28 bps. Those two lines mark the range in the chart below. In the event, the actual funds rate ended up below the mid-point of those expectations, which was 88 bps of rate cuts in 2024. The FOMC lowered the target range b ...

Figure 54: Housing services 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Dec-17 Dec-19 Dec-21 Dec-23 Dec-25 Dec-27 3-month change data 3-month change forecast model projection 12-month change data 12-month change forecast Source: BEA, UBS estimates Figure 55: PCE health care services prices 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Dec-17 Dec-19 Dec-21 Dec-23 Dec-25 Dec-27 3-month change data 3-month change forecast model projection 12-month change data 12-month change forecast Source: BEA, UBS estimates Figure 56: Food services 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6 ...

FICC Research Economics 29 November 2024 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Global Economics Weekly | | | Let the deals begin | | | Trump fired a first sal ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Economic Outlook Summary North America Economic Research 22 November 2024 J P M O R G A N Carlton Strong (1-212) 834-5612 carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------|-----------------------------------|-----------|-----------|--------------|------------------------------------------ ...

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research 19 November 2024 Correction (first published 18 November 2024) (See disclosures for details) In a sentimental mood 2025 Global Economic Outlook • The global expansion remained resilient this year with elevated inflation limiting central banks' room to ease. These developments aligned with our forecast, but GDP growth proved stronger and more divergent than expected. • Robust US outperformance and global manufacturing weakness (outside tech) was a surprise. The contra ...

J P M O R G A N Table 1: US economic forecasts North America Economic Research 19 November 2024 2025 US Economic Outlook: Yes, there are two paths • The election has sparked dueling boom-bust narratives on the path ahead • There are now upside risks to growth from deregulation and tax cutting and downside risks from tariffs and general policy uncertainty • But one shouldn't lose sight of the business cycle, which has been performing well • We look for only a mild downshift in growth in 2025 to 2%, with a sm ...

15 Nov 2024 10:16:00 ET │ 9 pages US Economics Production subdued even with temporary drag CITI'S TAKE Industrial production fell 0.3%MoM in October with a 0.5% decline in the largest subset of manufacturing production. The Federal Reserve (which produces IP data) indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November, but the underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors and the near-term o ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 V i e w p o i n t | 04 Nov 2024 05:00:13 ET │ 9 pages Global Economics Shock simulation: A US tariff increase with retaliation CITI'S TAKE In the second edition of our series of simulations of global shocks, we attempt to quantify the impact of a 10pp increase in tariffs on US imports and an equivalent retaliation by affected trading partners. The results suggest a sustained output loss in the US and elsewhere. Moreover, they also imply a long-lastin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 04 Nov 2024 10:58:42 ET │ 15 pages US Economics Inflation Weekly – Wage pressures returning to normal CITI'S TAKE Core PCE inflation rose 0.25%MoM in September, a bit stronger than the 0.21% increase we had been expecting but with Q3 inflation still rising close to target with a 2.16%QoQ annualized increase. Core inflation could remain volatile month to month, with some upside risk in October from components like medical and financial services. But h ...