Core Insights - The upcoming December consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to data collection disruptions from the government shutdown [1] - The consensus forecast estimates a monthly increase of 0.3% in headline inflation and a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, while core inflation is projected to rise 0.26% monthly and 2.6% annually [2] - Economists warn that the 43-day government shutdown will affect not only the December CPI but also the inflation data for the following months [2] Data Collection Issues - The government shutdown has led to significant data collection issues, impacting the accuracy of the CPI reports for October and November [3][6] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) used a carry-forward methodology, which assumed no price changes during the month, resulting in a downward bias in inflation dynamics [6] - The carry-forward methodology particularly affected housing price data, implying no changes in housing gauges from April to October [7] Impact on Inflation Reporting - The timing of data collection for November coincided with holiday discounting, which may have further depressed the November CPI data [8] - The downward bias in inflation data is expected to persist through April, with some offset anticipated, but the timing of this correction remains uncertain [11] - Oxford Economics forecasts similar monthly increases of 0.3% for both headline and core CPI in December, while noting that shutdown-related distortions will cloud the December CPI signals [11][12]

Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 54 in January from 52.9 in December, exceeding economists' expectations of 53.5 [1][2] - Despite the increase, the January reading is significantly lower than the 71.7 recorded in January 2025, indicating ongoing consumer concerns [2][7] - Improvements in sentiment were noted among lower-income consumers, while higher-income consumers reported a decline in sentiment [2] Inflation Expectations - Year-ahead inflation expectations remained steady at 4.2%, the lowest since January 2025 but still above the 3.3% expectations from that month [5] - Long-run inflation expectations slightly increased from 3.2% in December to 3.4% in January, compared to lower readings in 2024 and 2019-2020 [6] Labor Market - The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December, concluding a challenging year for the labor market, which faced various headwinds [9] - Job growth in 2025 was significantly lower, with only 584,000 jobs added compared to 2 million in 2024, marking the weakest annual increase outside a recession since 2003 [11]

Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that President Trump has one more interview to conduct before naming the next leader of the Federal Reserve, with Rick Rieder expected to be interviewed soon [1] - Trump has narrowed his shortlist for the Fed chair to four candidates: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder [2] - The appointment of the new Fed chair comes at a time when high living costs are challenging Trump's economic agenda, as the Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in setting borrowing costs and influencing inflation [4] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Trump's top economic adviser and director of the National Economic Council, has been a loyal defender of the administration's economic policies [5] - Kevin Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, has been critical of the current Fed leadership and is positioning himself as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell [7] - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, has called for rate cuts, aligning with some of Trump's demands, and is recognized as the academic veteran among the candidates [8] Group 3 - Jerome Powell, appointed by Trump in 2017, is expected to complete his term in May 2026, and Trump is anticipated to announce his decision regarding the new Fed chair by the end of the month [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. still has significant challenges in reclaiming chip production from Asia, as highlighted by former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who emphasized that the number of wafers produced in America is the key metric for progress [1][5] - The Trump administration is actively working to strengthen U.S. chip manufacturing, including taking a nearly 10% stake in Intel as part of a national security initiative [2][8] - Gelsinger noted that while there are milestones in chip manufacturing, major companies like Nvidia and AMD need to commit to producing chips in the U.S. for long-term success [9][10] Group 1 - Gelsinger stated that the return of chip manufacturing to the U.S. will take time, as it took decades for production to shift to Asia [5] - The concentration of advanced chip manufacturing in Asia, particularly Taiwan, raises economic and national security concerns for the U.S. [5] - The U.S. government views advanced computer chips as vital for military and competitive purposes in the AI sector [8] Group 2 - President Trump praised Intel's efforts and expressed support for the company's initiatives to bring chip manufacturing back to the U.S. [6][8] - Gelsinger expressed encouragement regarding recent milestones in chip manufacturing but acknowledged that more work is needed [10] - The collaboration between the U.S. government and Intel is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic semiconductor production [2][8]

Group 1 - The U.S. may soon lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to support oil sales, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that this could happen "as soon as next week" [1][4] - Bessent plans to meet with the heads of the IMF and World Bank to discuss renewed engagement with Venezuela, emphasizing the de-sanctioning of oil sales [1][4] - Approximately $5 billion in Venezuela's frozen IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) could be unlocked to aid the country's economic recovery, with Venezuela currently holding about 3.59 billion SDRs valued at roughly $4.9 billion [4] Group 2 - U.S. sanctions have historically restricted international financial dealings with Venezuela's government, and the potential sanctions relief is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to stabilize Venezuela and promote U.S. investment in its oil sector [7] - An executive order signed by President Trump blocks U.S. courts from seizing Venezuelan oil revenues held in American Treasury accounts, stating that such actions would pose an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security and foreign policy [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Meta's recent nuclear power agreements are positioned as a strategic move to bolster the U.S. in the AI competition against China, addressing rising energy demands and enhancing the power grid [1][5]. Group 1: Nuclear Power Agreements - Meta has signed 20-year agreements to purchase power from three Vistra-owned nuclear plants located in Ohio and Pennsylvania [1][5]. - The deals are projected to supply up to 6.6 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2035 [2]. - The agreements will also support the development of small modular nuclear reactors in collaboration with Oklo and TerraPower, the latter being backed by billionaire Bill Gates [6]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The investments are expected to create thousands of skilled jobs in local communities, including positions for pipefitters, steel workers, electricians, and plumbers [8]. - Meta's agreements, along with a previous deal to extend the operation of an Illinois nuclear plant for another 20 years, will position the company as one of the largest corporate buyers of nuclear power in U.S. history [10]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - The company expresses enthusiasm about partnering with American firms and the Trump administration to drive significant energy investments in new nuclear power [2][5]. - Kaplan emphasizes the positive contributions these investments will have on the economy and local communities [5][11].

Last week’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro opened the world to see the mess that the country with the largest proven oil deposit in the world was still starving and abusing its people. But there’s more to it than the alleged crimes of the previous leader. Notably, one of Venezuela’s closest allies over the past few years has been the Islamic Republic of Iran. Broadly speaking, that regime is a staunch enemy of the West, and specifically, it hates the U.S. and the freedoms it stands for. "Des ...

Group 1: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil - The United States now controls every drop of oil coming out of Venezuela, with Russian tankers being intercepted off the Venezuelan coast [2] - Venezuela has initiated oil sales with a 30 million-barrel tranche, expected to increase to 50 million and then 100 million barrels, with proceeds managed by a White House-run fund [2] - The U.S. will dictate the terms of oil sales, with Venezuela required to purchase only American-made products, including agriculture and medical supplies [2] Group 2: Investment and Stability Concerns - Oil companies are concerned about the stability of the Venezuelan government as they consider new investments, with Chevron holding the largest stake and potentially increasing production from 50,000 to 200,000 barrels per day [3][4] - Overall production could rise to approximately 1 million barrels per day, up from around 800,000 barrels [4] - The transition to democracy in Venezuela must be "stable, proper and judicious," according to President Trump [3] Group 3: Broader Geopolitical Implications - The situation is viewed as a strategy to expel Russia and China from the Western Hemisphere and to undermine Cuba and Iran [5] - The focus on oil is seen as part of a larger narrative about promoting freedom and democracy in the region [5]

Group 1 - Major U.S. oil companies are set to invest $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela's energy sector following the capture of Nicolás Maduro [1][4] - The investment aims to enhance Venezuela's oil infrastructure and increase production to unprecedented levels, with the U.S. and Venezuela together holding 55% of the world's oil [2][4] - The U.S. administration will determine which companies can operate in Venezuela, with the expectation that U.S. consumers will benefit from lower gas prices [4][7] Group 2 - Venezuela has agreed to allow the U.S. to refine and sell up to 50 million barrels of its crude oil, which will be an ongoing arrangement [4][8] - The oil will be sold at market price, with proceeds managed by the U.S. President to benefit both Venezuelan and U.S. citizens [10] - Currently, Chevron is the only U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, while others like ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil had their assets nationalized [12]

Fund Performance and Strategy - The 1789 Capital Growth Equity Fund has experienced significant growth, with assets increasing from $200 million to $2 billion by December 31, 2025, and is now closed to new investors [1] - The firm has launched a new 1789 Real Estate fund, which has raised $1 billion in a few months, targeting migration from high-tax states to Southern Florida [2] Investment Focus - The fund aims to capitalize on the demand for commercial space, housing, hospitals, and schools due to population shifts from states like New York to Florida [2] - Notable investments include Elon Musk's SpaceX, which may go public this year with a potential valuation of $1 trillion, and AI company Groq, which partnered with Nvidia in a deal valued at approximately $20 billion [3] Defense Technology Investments - The fund holds a position in Anduril, a defense tech company founded by Palmer Luckey, which is set to begin large-scale manufacturing of an autonomous fighter jet for the U.S. Air Force [5][6] - The YFQ-44 is described as an autonomous "loyal wingman" that operates alongside manned pilots, enhancing operational capabilities [6] Other Notable Investments - The fund has invested in GrabAGun, an online gun retailer, which has seen a significant stock price increase of 15.34% recently [8] - Trump Jr. has indicated that the investment in GrabAGun represents a "catalyst for change" amid a cultural shift regarding Second Amendment rights [9]