Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Heyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures little changed as the S&P 500 looks to close out a modest week of gains. What started off as the so-called debasement trade this week quickly turned into the buy everything rally. Stocks soared to new highs, gold hit fresh records, crypto jumped, and the dollar saw its best week of the year.Investors also bought treasuries for good measure. Plus, the ...

Gold Market Performance & Outlook - Gold has increased 100% over the last 2 years and over 50% this year [1] - Gold is considered a great store of value with a 2,000-year history of challenging currencies [1] - Gold should be a permanent position in portfolios [1] Market Dynamics & Currency Shift - The gold market is valued at $25 trillion, approximately half the size of the US stock market [2] - The US stock market has increased 100% over the last 3 years [2] - There's a move away from the dollar at the margin, with gold seen as a good alternative [2]

Market Trends & Global Economy - China is intensifying its scrutiny of American tech firms, initiating an anti-monopoly probe into Qualcomm, leading to a stock decrease of over 2% [2] - The US government shutdown continues, impacting federal employees (around 750,000 furloughed) and potentially delaying key economic reports [3][11] - Middle East peace deal impacts oil prices, with a decrease of around 16% due to fading risk premiums, while gold prices recovered to above $4,000 [6][7] - The dollar is near a two-month high, despite a decline earlier in the year, with analysts at ING suggesting this rally isn't justified by US fundamentals [11][12][13] Monetary Policy & Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with investors awaiting insights from Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby regarding potential rate cut adjustments due to recent data or the government shutdown [8][9] - Preliminary consumer sentiment for October is expected to decrease to 54, indicating reduced confidence in personal finances due to inflation and job market concerns [10] - The market is pricing in Fed rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar further, with Euro dollar target by the end of the year is 120 [16] Earnings Season & Financial Metrics - Earnings season is approaching, emphasizing the importance of understanding key financial terms like revenue, net income, EPS, GAAP, non-GAAP, and free cash flow [19][20][21][22] - Companies exceeding analyst expectations (a beat) isn't always bullish, and future guidance often matters more than historical performance [23][24] - Bullish signals include beating revenue and EPS with healthy margins, positive cash flows, stock buyback announcements, and increasing orders [25][26] - Bearish signals include missing sales or EPS targets, cutting future guidance, shrinking margins, and questionable non-GAAP adjustments [27][28] Trending Stocks & AI Bubble Concerns - Levi Strauss's stock is falling despite raising its full-year outlook due to margin pressure and potential tariff costs, down over 6% [32] - BBVA Argentina is rising after the US Treasury confirmed a $20 billion program to buy Argentinian pesos [33][34] - Rigetti is surging as speculative AI names rebound, up over 80% this quarter, but analysts remain cautious due to cash burn [35] - SoftBank is in the red, down over 3%, after announcing a $54 billion deal to buy ABB's robotics unit, raising concerns about leveraged debt and high valuations in the AI sector [37] AI Market Dynamics - Concerns are rising about an AI bubble, with companies like Oracle taking on debt to fuel growth and OpenAI aggressively pursuing deals despite negative free cash flow [41][42][43] - Potential triggers for the AI bubble to burst include smaller entities in the AI ecosystem (neoclouds, special purpose vehicles) facing financial difficulties due to debt [44] Consumer Trends & Commodity Prices - Chocolate prices are increasing due to rising cocoa prices, driven by weather-related production issues in West Africa, US tariffs (up to 25% on key producers), and rising demand [45][46] - Bitcoin is sliding, trading around $1215,000 after being above $126,000 earlier in the week [48]

Personal Finance Tools & Resources - Yahoo Finance offers tools to help build wealth [1] - Yahoo Personal Finance provides resources for portfolio management and market data [1] Mortgage Refinancing - Report discusses the cost of refinancing a mortgage and how to determine if it's worthwhile [1] Medicare Open Enrollment - Information on Medicare open enrollment season is provided [1] - Guidance on maximizing Medicare coverage is available [1] Yahoo Finance Platform - Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data and up-to-date news [1] - Yahoo Finance offers advanced tools and comprehensive market data [1] - Yahoo Finance is accessible via website and mobile app on Apple and Android [1] - Yahoo Finance is present on social media platforms including X, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and LinkedIn [1]

Government & Politics - House Speaker Mike Johnson holds press conference on government shutdown [1] - The report mentions GOP and Congress, indicating political context [1] Financial News & Data - Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, and portfolio management resources [1] - Yahoo Finance offers comprehensive market data and advanced tools [1] - Yahoo Finance aims to help users manage their financial life [1] Media & Technology - Yahoo Finance is accessible via website (finance.yahoo.com) and mobile app (Apple & Android) [1] - Yahoo Finance maintains a presence on various social media platforms, including X, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and LinkedIn [1]

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]

Investment Perspective on Gold - Warren Buffett cautioned investors about gold's shortcomings, noting it lacks utility and procreative ability [1] - Gold is viewed as a trade, acting as a store of value over extended periods but prone to volatility [2] Market Dynamics of Gold - Central bank diversification, particularly from China, India, Turkey, and Mongolia, drives gold demand due to geopolitical concerns and trade wars [3] - FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and momentum traders contribute to gold's price surges [3] Trading Gold - Trading gold like stocks is often done incorrectly; central bank positioning and retail/regular trader activity are key factors [2]

Listen and subscribe to The Big Idea with Elizabeth Gore on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcast. How do you break into a tough market and win? This CEO has done it twice. This week on The Big Idea with Elizabeth Gore, Dutch Pet, Inc. founder and CEO Joe Spector joins the show to answer the question: How can I break into a complex market? Spector, also the co-founder of the public health company Hims & Hers (HIMS), transformed the telehealth sector for both humans and animals ...

Analyst talks AI trade bubble, Intel's new Panther Lake chip, Fed divided on economic risks. Market Catalysts anchor Julie Hyman breaks down the latest market news for October 9, 2025. Is the AI trade in a bubble? Julie speaks with Seaport Research Partners Senior Analyst Jay Goldberg about why he believes there is an early-stage AI bubble forming, but stocks can go up a lot from here. Goldberg also lays out the "Super 6" AI companies, which include Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle. Mem ...

Gold Market Analysis - Gold climbed over 50% in 2025 and is holding above $4,000, driven by the debasement trade [1] - Central banks, including China, India, Turkey, and smaller countries, are diversifying into gold, moving away from the dollar due to geopolitical concerns [5] - Momentum traders and those fearing global collapse are contributing to the gold surge [6] - Gold miners are up 100% this year, indicating a second phase after gold bullion [9] - Silver is considered a "meme cousin" of gold, with its rise seen as a degenerate gambling ploy rather than an industrial play [10] - Young investors are switching from Bitcoin to gold, believing it will hold value if the dollar collapses [15] - Gold is viewed as a trade and a store of value over very long periods, not necessarily an inflation hedge [17][18] Alternative Investment Opportunities - Trade Desk (TTD) is highlighted as a "Liberation Day loser" due to concerns about Amazon DSP, but it remains the only independent ad-buying platform, with CTV (streaming TV ads) representing half of its revenues [22][23] - FICO (Fair Isaac) is another "Liberation Day loser" facing political noise, but is now going direct [23][24] - Shift4 (FOUR) is a major player in the move to cashless payments, expanding into verticals like stadiums and tax-free shopping in Europe [24][25][26]