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What’s New on GuruFocus: Complete Guide and Demo
GuruFocus· 2025-07-16 22:04
Government Debt - US debt to GDP ratio is approximately 121%, with about 36 trillion USD of debt and a GDP of about 30 trillion USD [1] - US debt to GDP ratio is among the highest, second only to Japan's 240% [2] - US national debt is considered a significant problem for the market's future [3] - The debt to GDP ratio has doubled since the 1990s, when it was around 60-66% [3] Gold and Silver Ratio - The current gold to silver ratio is about 91, while historically it averages around 60 [3][4] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 30% this year [5] US Dollar and Platinum - The US dollar has declined by about 12% in the first six months of the year, marking one of the biggest declines since 1973 [5] - Platinum prices are currently less than half the price of gold, despite recent increases [6] - Platinum may be an option for diversifying out of stocks or other assets [6]
August Members Engagement Meeting
GuruFocus· 2025-07-02 19:05
During the meeting, Dr. Tian will share how users can take advantage of GuruFocus features to find good investment opportunities in the market. He will discuss market valuations, GF Score, DCF Models, and other key topics. He will also answer questions from GuruFocus members about the site, different features, the market or investment philosophies/strategies. We hope you will join in to learn how to get the most out of your membership. ...
July Members Engagement Meeting
GuruFocus· 2025-06-19 14:41
During the meeting, Dr. Tian will share how users can take advantage of GuruFocus features to find good investment opportunities in the market. He will discuss market valuations, GF Score, DCF Models, and other key topics. He will also answer questions from GuruFocus members about the site, different features, the market or investment philosophies/strategies. We hope you will join in to learn how to get the most out of your membership. ...
Understanding Moat Strength & Tariff Score: How to Spot Long-Term Winners
GuruFocus· 2025-06-17 21:25
New Features Introduction - GuruFocus has added Mode Score and Tariff Score to stock analysis, accessible on stock pages within the profitability rank box [1][2] - Mode Score ranks a company's long-term competitive advantage, considering factors like leadership, lower costs, IP, and switching costs [3][4][5] - Tariff Score indicates how much a company is affected by tariffs, considering where products are made and the nature of the product (e.g., software vs physical goods) [7][8][9] Scoring and Ranking - Both Mode Score and Tariff Score range from 1 to 10, with a score of 8 or above considered high [10] - AI is used to assist with the ranking of the Tariff Score [9] - The platform allows filtering for companies based on Mode Score and Tariff Resilience Score [13][14] Examples and Analysis - Microsoft has a high Mode Score due to its dominant market position, strong brand, network effects, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [6][7] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is significantly impacted by tariffs, with approximately 20% of their cars being manufactured outside the US [11][12] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effects, customer loyalty, and economies of scale, and its vast global supply chain helps mitigate tariff impacts [14][15] Investment Strategy - Combining Mode Score, Tariff Score, profitability rank, and growth rank can identify high-quality companies for investment [16][17] - Companies with high ranks in profitability and growth often exhibit consistent business performance and high profit margins [17][18] Platform Access - Mode Score and Tariff Score can be found on the GuruFocus website within the profitability rank box for each stock [20] - Links explaining the ranking details will be added to the platform [20][21]
GuruFocus Back-testing Tool Explained: Test Before You Invest
GuruFocus· 2025-06-17 21:24
Okay, now let's talk about back testing and back testing. If I start over back testing, not sure what specific questions you have, but let me show you how to do back testing. And if I just uh go come to a screener, one of my pre-existing screeners like the high quality one, if I just select that one, the filter is set already here.uh it has financial strength requirement, profitability rank requirement, predictability and roe. If I do want to do back testing, I just click on back testing here and I select a ...
Does GF Value Actually Work? (Backtesting the Results)
GuruFocus· 2025-06-12 18:24
Valuation Metrics - GF Value is used for valuation, including price to GF Value, which is essential for back testing [1] - Back testing can be performed by ranking based on price to GF Value [1] Back Testing Analysis - Back testing functionality is supported, allowing users to add parameters [2][3] - Limiting the back testing to SP500 companies yields more sensible results [2] - A random GF Value back testing over the last three years (from 2022 to current) shows potential market outperformance [2]
Reverse DCF Explained – Find Out What the Market’s Pricing I
GuruFocus· 2025-06-12 18:23
Model Assumptions & Inputs - The DCF model defaults to a discount rate of the current 10-year Treasury rate plus 6%, currently at 11% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is used as a default input to estimate future earnings in the reverse DCF model [2] - Free cash flow and adjusted dividend models are available as options [2] Reverse DCF Model Analysis - The reverse DCF model determines the growth rate needed to justify the current stock price [3] - For Brown, the model suggests a future growth rate of 1948% per year for the next 10 years to justify the current stock price [3] - Brown's average EPS growth over the last 10 years was 2220% [3] - The expected growth is smaller than the past growth, suggesting it is potentially achievable, but relies on assumptions [4] Key Considerations - The business needs to be predictable and consistent in the future [5] - Future growth should be similar to past growth [5] - Changes to the discount rate can significantly impact the valuation [5] - Future interest rates and the length of the growth stage are unknown assumptions [5] - Both DCF and reverse DCF models rely on numerous assumptions [1][5]
Wall Street Is Quietly Buying Gold – Don’t Miss This
GuruFocus· 2025-06-12 18:23
Concerns Regarding US Government Debt - The speaker started buying gold last year due to concerns about the high US government debt [1] - Interest payments on the US government debt are approaching 20% of the government's income, which is considered alarming [1] - Warren Buffett's recent statement suggests that the US government's current financial situation is unsustainable [1] Gold as Portfolio Insurance - Gold is viewed as insurance for the portfolio due to uncertainty about the US government's financial sustainability [2] Gold Mining Company Investment Strategy - The company's screener can be used to find gold mining companies [2][3] - When investing in gold mining companies, prioritize those with high profitability, good financial strength, and good quality [4] - Investing in high-quality mining companies is recommended due to the cyclical nature of the gold industry [4] - Companies with strong financial strength are better positioned to withstand downward cycles [4] - The GF Score is a good measure of the quality and valuation of gold mining stocks [4] - Companies like Royal Gold and Southern Copper are mentioned as potential investment options based on their high rank in financial strength, profitability, and overall quality [4]
Market Valuation Warning Signs: S&P 500 Analysis + Insider Trading Signals
GuruFocus· 2025-06-06 22:27
Market Valuation - The market was overvalued at the beginning of the year, then crashed to near bear market levels, down almost 20% for the S&P 500, reaching fair value, but has since recovered by 10% and is now slightly overvalued [3] - The speaker believes the market is slightly overvalued, contrasting with a fair valuation assessment from one to two weeks prior [4] Insider Trading Trends - Insider buying trends historically correlate with market valuation, with insider buying often signaling a good time to buy [4] - The historical average buy-to-sell ratio for insiders is about 04% [6] - Significant insider buying activity occurred during market downturns such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 2012 US government shutdown, and the 2020 pandemic when the market was down 30% within two weeks [7] - Recently, insider activity picked up as the market approached bear market territory, rising above the 04% average to around 05% in the last two months, suggesting insiders view it as a reasonably good time to buy [7][8] Data Analysis Methodology - The insider trading chart displays monthly cumulative data, calculated by dividing total insider buy counts by total sell counts for that month [9] - The calculation includes public market trading at current stock prices, excluding option exercises or private market deals [10] - The analysis counts transactions rather than the number of shares, though a "shares volume option" has been added this month [10][11] - Analyzing the buy-sell ratio is considered more effective than analyzing the sell-buy ratio [11][12] - Insider behavior as a group is more indicative of market trends than individual insider actions [13]
June Member Engagement Meeting: Moat Score and Tariff Resilience Score
GuruFocus· 2025-06-05 07:06
New Features and Tools - Guru Focus introduced a Mode Score and a Tariff Score to help investors assess a company's long-term competitive advantage and resilience to tariffs, respectively [5][6][7][12] - Guru Focus added a geographic revenue filter to the screener, allowing users to filter companies by revenue source (US, Canada, Europe, etc) [38][39][40] Mode Score Analysis - A good Mode Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effect, customer loyalty, and economies of scale [16][17] - Berkshire Hathaway has the highest Mode Score of 10, although the difference between 10 and 9 is not considered significant [19] - Microsoft has a robust wide mode due to its dominant market position, strong brand, extensive network effect, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [11] Tariff Score Analysis - A good Tariff Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is more impacted by tariffs, while Ford is ranked slightly higher [16] - Amazon's vast global supply chain and logistics network provides flexibility to mitigate tariff impacts, enhancing its resilience [17] Backtesting and Screening - Guru Focus offers backtesting functionality, allowing users to test investment strategies based on various filters and rankings [41][42][43][44] - The all-in-one screener allows filtering for companies with high Mode Score and high Tariff Resilience Score [16] - Users can download screener results to Excel or CSV files [27] Investment Philosophy and Market Views - Guru Focus emphasizes investing in high-quality companies with consistent business and high profit margins [20][21][68] - Guru Focus believes growth and profitability are more important than valuation, but does not want to buy stocks that are extremely overvalued [29][67][68] - The presenter personally owns gold due to concerns about the US national debt, which is growing faster than GDP and consuming a significant portion (20%) of government tax income [33][34][35] - Guru Focus warns against value traps, which are companies that appear undervalued but have underlying financial distress or declining growth [61][72][73]