Valuation Metrics - GF Value is used for valuation, including price to GF Value, which is essential for back testing [1] - Back testing can be performed by ranking based on price to GF Value [1] Back Testing Analysis - Back testing functionality is supported, allowing users to add parameters [2][3] - Limiting the back testing to SP500 companies yields more sensible results [2] - A random GF Value back testing over the last three years (from 2022 to current) shows potential market outperformance [2]

Model Assumptions & Inputs - The DCF model defaults to a discount rate of the current 10-year Treasury rate plus 6%, currently at 11% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is used as a default input to estimate future earnings in the reverse DCF model [2] - Free cash flow and adjusted dividend models are available as options [2] Reverse DCF Model Analysis - The reverse DCF model determines the growth rate needed to justify the current stock price [3] - For Brown, the model suggests a future growth rate of 1948% per year for the next 10 years to justify the current stock price [3] - Brown's average EPS growth over the last 10 years was 2220% [3] - The expected growth is smaller than the past growth, suggesting it is potentially achievable, but relies on assumptions [4] Key Considerations - The business needs to be predictable and consistent in the future [5] - Future growth should be similar to past growth [5] - Changes to the discount rate can significantly impact the valuation [5] - Future interest rates and the length of the growth stage are unknown assumptions [5] - Both DCF and reverse DCF models rely on numerous assumptions [1][5]

Concerns Regarding US Government Debt - The speaker started buying gold last year due to concerns about the high US government debt [1] - Interest payments on the US government debt are approaching 20% of the government's income, which is considered alarming [1] - Warren Buffett's recent statement suggests that the US government's current financial situation is unsustainable [1] Gold as Portfolio Insurance - Gold is viewed as insurance for the portfolio due to uncertainty about the US government's financial sustainability [2] Gold Mining Company Investment Strategy - The company's screener can be used to find gold mining companies [2][3] - When investing in gold mining companies, prioritize those with high profitability, good financial strength, and good quality [4] - Investing in high-quality mining companies is recommended due to the cyclical nature of the gold industry [4] - Companies with strong financial strength are better positioned to withstand downward cycles [4] - The GF Score is a good measure of the quality and valuation of gold mining stocks [4] - Companies like Royal Gold and Southern Copper are mentioned as potential investment options based on their high rank in financial strength, profitability, and overall quality [4]

I'll be glad to share with you know that the market has not been very smooth although it was getting better. It it has been getting better last since last week lots of volatility. Let's review the market valuation that I always do and uh then I'll go to the things that uh we uh that's important to us.Okay, let me share my screen with you here. This is mascaran and uh this is the homepage of guru focus. What you see on your homepage on the homepage might be different from what I see because this page is full ...

New Features and Tools - Guru Focus introduced a Mode Score and a Tariff Score to help investors assess a company's long-term competitive advantage and resilience to tariffs, respectively [5][6][7][12] - Guru Focus added a geographic revenue filter to the screener, allowing users to filter companies by revenue source (US, Canada, Europe, etc) [38][39][40] Mode Score Analysis - A good Mode Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effect, customer loyalty, and economies of scale [16][17] - Berkshire Hathaway has the highest Mode Score of 10, although the difference between 10 and 9 is not considered significant [19] - Microsoft has a robust wide mode due to its dominant market position, strong brand, extensive network effect, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [11] Tariff Score Analysis - A good Tariff Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is more impacted by tariffs, while Ford is ranked slightly higher [16] - Amazon's vast global supply chain and logistics network provides flexibility to mitigate tariff impacts, enhancing its resilience [17] Backtesting and Screening - Guru Focus offers backtesting functionality, allowing users to test investment strategies based on various filters and rankings [41][42][43][44] - The all-in-one screener allows filtering for companies with high Mode Score and high Tariff Resilience Score [16] - Users can download screener results to Excel or CSV files [27] Investment Philosophy and Market Views - Guru Focus emphasizes investing in high-quality companies with consistent business and high profit margins [20][21][68] - Guru Focus believes growth and profitability are more important than valuation, but does not want to buy stocks that are extremely overvalued [29][67][68] - The presenter personally owns gold due to concerns about the US national debt, which is growing faster than GDP and consuming a significant portion (20%) of government tax income [33][34][35] - Guru Focus warns against value traps, which are companies that appear undervalued but have underlying financial distress or declining growth [61][72][73]

Market Valuation & Insider Trends - The market was overvalued at the beginning of the year, crashed to near bear market territory (down almost 20% for the S&P 500), recovered 10%, and is now slightly overvalued [5] - Insider buying activity tends to increase during market downturns, as seen in 2008-2009, 2012, and 2020 [8] - Currently, the insider buy-to-sell ratio is around 05%, above the historical average of 04%, suggesting insiders view it as a reasonably good time to buy [9] - GuruFocus provides an insider trend chart that displays insider buying and selling activities, with each bar representing monthly cumulative data [10] Investment Strategies & Tools - Gold is considered as an insurance against potential US government debt issues, with interest payments nearing 20% of government income [16][17] - GuruFocus's screener can be used to find gold mining companies, filtering for those with high profitability, financial strength, and quality ranks [18][20] - GuruFocus offers a GF Value model, which correlates stock prices with revenue, earnings, cash flow, and book value to estimate fair multiple and current valuation [38][39] - GuruFocus has an AI function that uses Open AI and GuruFocus data to answer questions about stocks, such as fair value and future revenue growth [41][42][43] - GuruFocus supports backtesting using price to GF Value, allowing users to evaluate investment strategies [44][45][46] Website Updates & Features - GuruFocus is adding mode rank and tariff resilience rank for stocks, which will be available for filtering [50][51][52] - GuruFocus is considering adding GF Valuation charts for ETFs [60][61] - GuruFocus is considering adding a feature to screen for stocks below their lowest analyst price forecast [27][28]

Investment Opportunities & Valuation - GuruFocus suggests utilizing its features to identify promising investment opportunities [1] - The platform allows users to monitor insider buy-to-sell ratio trends, potentially signaling market bottoms [1] - GuruFocus provides valuation tools, including GF Score, GF Value, DCF (Discounted Cash Flow), and reverse DCF analysis [1] - Valuation correlations can be analyzed using GuruFocus's tools [1] GuruFocus Features & Tools - GF Value is a key metric offered by GuruFocus for stock valuation [1] - DCF valuation methods are available for assessing investment opportunities [1] - Backtesting capabilities are present within the GuruFocus platform [1] - Portfolio optimization tools are offered to GuruFocus members [1]

Market Valuation and Trends - The market valuation is near its highest point, only 2-3% down from its peak [1] - The Buffet Indicator, which is the ratio of total market cap over GDP, is at its highest point ever, indicating significant overvaluation [1] - Shiller PE ratio is also at its highest level, suggesting the market is expensive and future returns may be low [1] GuruFocus Platform Updates - GuruFocus has released new features for screeners, including technical-related filters like 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and SMA (Simple Moving Average) [2] - Users can create custom filters for fundamental data and filter stocks based on historical data, such as revenue growth from 2022 year-over-year [2] - A new valuation tab has been added for every stock, showing valuation and correlation analysis between price and various parameters like revenue, book value, earnings, and cash flow [4] - GuruFocus has released brokerage account integration for premium members, allowing users to upload their brokerage account and analyze their portfolios using GuruFocus tools [5] Stock Analysis and Commentary - Alphabet's stock is down 8% due to not very good earnings [1] - Apple's revenue in China is declining, indicating a loss of competitive edge [3][4] - Dollar General's stock has declined almost 60% since 2022 due to competition from cheap online retailers, and its operating margin has decreased from 10% to less than 6% [4] - PDD's P/S ratio is 89, with a P/E ratio of more than 500, indicating extremely high market expectations [5] - Mesa Air Group is not a good investment because the airline business has generally been losing money [7] - Novo Nordisk's stock has come down almost 41% from its peak, presenting an interesting opportunity [7]