Dr. Charlie Tian Compares and Evaluates 3 Top Tech Companies ...

Market Overview & Investment Opportunities - Indian market has performed very well over the last 20 years, with tremendous market returns, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1][3] - There are 16 stocks of companies headquartered in India but traded in the US [1] - These companies exhibit tremendous growth in their business performance charts, specifically in profit (net income) and revenue [1][2] Risks & Considerations - Emerging markets, like India, require careful consideration, especially regarding companies' financial strength and profitability [2] - Competition in the Indian market is fierce, similar to China, with companies aggressively pursuing market share [2][3] - It's crucial to study the sustainability of growth due to intense competition [2]

Company Overview & Market Position - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is a leading company in its field [1] - The company's market capitalization is $1.2 trillion [1] - TSM's market cap is only behind Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Facebook, and Berkshire Hathaway [2] - The company contributes significantly to technological advancements [2] Momentum & Growth - Momentum is a factor that can affect stock performance, which is why it's included in the GF Score [3] - TSM has good momentum, with its momentum increasing over the last three to six months [3] - The company still exhibits good growth [3] GF Score - Momentum score is used for JF score J score rank calculation with a relatively small weighting factor [3] - Value investors don't pay much attention to momentum [3] - Momentum score should not prevent investment if valuation and quality are good [3]

Government Debt - US debt to GDP ratio is approximately 121%, with about 36 trillion USD of debt and a GDP of about 30 trillion USD [1] - US debt to GDP ratio is among the highest, second only to Japan's 240% [2] - US national debt is considered a significant problem for the market's future [3] - The debt to GDP ratio has doubled since the 1990s, when it was around 60-66% [3] Gold and Silver Ratio - The current gold to silver ratio is about 91, while historically it averages around 60 [3][4] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 30% this year [5] US Dollar and Platinum - The US dollar has declined by about 12% in the first six months of the year, marking one of the biggest declines since 1973 [5] - Platinum prices are currently less than half the price of gold, despite recent increases [6] - Platinum may be an option for diversifying out of stocks or other assets [6]

During the meeting, Dr. Tian will share how users can take advantage of GuruFocus features to find good investment opportunities in the market. He will discuss market valuations, GF Score, DCF Models, and other key topics. He will also answer questions from GuruFocus members about the site, different features, the market or investment philosophies/strategies. We hope you will join in to learn how to get the most out of your membership. ...

Investment Opportunities - GuruFocus will share how users can leverage its features to identify promising investment opportunities [1] - Key topics include market valuations, GF Score, and DCF Models [1] GuruFocus Features & Membership - The session aims to help members maximize their GuruFocus membership [1] - Dr Tian will address questions about the site, its features, and investment strategies [1]

New Features Introduction - GuruFocus has added Mode Score and Tariff Score to stock analysis, accessible on stock pages within the profitability rank box [1][2] - Mode Score ranks a company's long-term competitive advantage, considering factors like leadership, lower costs, IP, and switching costs [3][4][5] - Tariff Score indicates how much a company is affected by tariffs, considering where products are made and the nature of the product (e.g., software vs physical goods) [7][8][9] Scoring and Ranking - Both Mode Score and Tariff Score range from 1 to 10, with a score of 8 or above considered high [10] - AI is used to assist with the ranking of the Tariff Score [9] - The platform allows filtering for companies based on Mode Score and Tariff Resilience Score [13][14] Examples and Analysis - Microsoft has a high Mode Score due to its dominant market position, strong brand, network effects, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [6][7] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is significantly impacted by tariffs, with approximately 20% of their cars being manufactured outside the US [11][12] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effects, customer loyalty, and economies of scale, and its vast global supply chain helps mitigate tariff impacts [14][15] Investment Strategy - Combining Mode Score, Tariff Score, profitability rank, and growth rank can identify high-quality companies for investment [16][17] - Companies with high ranks in profitability and growth often exhibit consistent business performance and high profit margins [17][18] Platform Access - Mode Score and Tariff Score can be found on the GuruFocus website within the profitability rank box for each stock [20] - Links explaining the ranking details will be added to the platform [20][21]

Back Testing Methodology - Back testing involves using pre-existing screeners, such as a high-quality screener, with filters already set [1] - The process includes selecting a number of stocks, exemplified by selecting 20 stocks in this case [2] - Ranking is based on factors like return on equity and 10-year median, with options for largest or smallest values over the last three years [3] - Rebalancing can be set at intervals, such as every 12 months [3] - The system calculates performance over each rebalance period, generating performance charts [3] Performance Metrics - The back testing tool calculates alpha, beta, and Sharpe ratio [4] - Parameters can be adjusted based on existing screeners, allowing for modification [4]

Valuation Metrics - GF Value is used for valuation, including price to GF Value, which is essential for back testing [1] - Back testing can be performed by ranking based on price to GF Value [1] Back Testing Analysis - Back testing functionality is supported, allowing users to add parameters [2][3] - Limiting the back testing to SP500 companies yields more sensible results [2] - A random GF Value back testing over the last three years (from 2022 to current) shows potential market outperformance [2]

Model Assumptions & Inputs - The DCF model defaults to a discount rate of the current 10-year Treasury rate plus 6%, currently at 11% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is used as a default input to estimate future earnings in the reverse DCF model [2] - Free cash flow and adjusted dividend models are available as options [2] Reverse DCF Model Analysis - The reverse DCF model determines the growth rate needed to justify the current stock price [3] - For Brown, the model suggests a future growth rate of 1948% per year for the next 10 years to justify the current stock price [3] - Brown's average EPS growth over the last 10 years was 2220% [3] - The expected growth is smaller than the past growth, suggesting it is potentially achievable, but relies on assumptions [4] Key Considerations - The business needs to be predictable and consistent in the future [5] - Future growth should be similar to past growth [5] - Changes to the discount rate can significantly impact the valuation [5] - Future interest rates and the length of the growth stage are unknown assumptions [5] - Both DCF and reverse DCF models rely on numerous assumptions [1][5]