Investment Opportunities - GuruFocus will share how users can leverage its features to identify promising investment opportunities [1] - Key topics include market valuations, GF Score, and DCF Models [1] GuruFocus Features & Membership - The session aims to help members maximize their GuruFocus membership [1] - Dr Tian will address questions about the site, its features, and investment strategies [1]

New Features Introduction - GuruFocus has added Mode Score and Tariff Score to stock analysis, accessible on stock pages within the profitability rank box [1][2] - Mode Score ranks a company's long-term competitive advantage, considering factors like leadership, lower costs, IP, and switching costs [3][4][5] - Tariff Score indicates how much a company is affected by tariffs, considering where products are made and the nature of the product (e.g., software vs physical goods) [7][8][9] Scoring and Ranking - Both Mode Score and Tariff Score range from 1 to 10, with a score of 8 or above considered high [10] - AI is used to assist with the ranking of the Tariff Score [9] - The platform allows filtering for companies based on Mode Score and Tariff Resilience Score [13][14] Examples and Analysis - Microsoft has a high Mode Score due to its dominant market position, strong brand, network effects, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [6][7] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is significantly impacted by tariffs, with approximately 20% of their cars being manufactured outside the US [11][12] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effects, customer loyalty, and economies of scale, and its vast global supply chain helps mitigate tariff impacts [14][15] Investment Strategy - Combining Mode Score, Tariff Score, profitability rank, and growth rank can identify high-quality companies for investment [16][17] - Companies with high ranks in profitability and growth often exhibit consistent business performance and high profit margins [17][18] Platform Access - Mode Score and Tariff Score can be found on the GuruFocus website within the profitability rank box for each stock [20] - Links explaining the ranking details will be added to the platform [20][21]

Back Testing Methodology - Back testing involves using pre-existing screeners, such as a high-quality screener, with filters already set [1] - The process includes selecting a number of stocks, exemplified by selecting 20 stocks in this case [2] - Ranking is based on factors like return on equity and 10-year median, with options for largest or smallest values over the last three years [3] - Rebalancing can be set at intervals, such as every 12 months [3] - The system calculates performance over each rebalance period, generating performance charts [3] Performance Metrics - The back testing tool calculates alpha, beta, and Sharpe ratio [4] - Parameters can be adjusted based on existing screeners, allowing for modification [4]

Valuation Metrics - GF Value is used for valuation, including price to GF Value, which is essential for back testing [1] - Back testing can be performed by ranking based on price to GF Value [1] Back Testing Analysis - Back testing functionality is supported, allowing users to add parameters [2][3] - Limiting the back testing to SP500 companies yields more sensible results [2] - A random GF Value back testing over the last three years (from 2022 to current) shows potential market outperformance [2]

Model Assumptions & Inputs - The DCF model defaults to a discount rate of the current 10-year Treasury rate plus 6%, currently at 11% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is used as a default input to estimate future earnings in the reverse DCF model [2] - Free cash flow and adjusted dividend models are available as options [2] Reverse DCF Model Analysis - The reverse DCF model determines the growth rate needed to justify the current stock price [3] - For Brown, the model suggests a future growth rate of 1948% per year for the next 10 years to justify the current stock price [3] - Brown's average EPS growth over the last 10 years was 2220% [3] - The expected growth is smaller than the past growth, suggesting it is potentially achievable, but relies on assumptions [4] Key Considerations - The business needs to be predictable and consistent in the future [5] - Future growth should be similar to past growth [5] - Changes to the discount rate can significantly impact the valuation [5] - Future interest rates and the length of the growth stage are unknown assumptions [5] - Both DCF and reverse DCF models rely on numerous assumptions [1][5]

Concerns Regarding US Government Debt - The speaker started buying gold last year due to concerns about the high US government debt [1] - Interest payments on the US government debt are approaching 20% of the government's income, which is considered alarming [1] - Warren Buffett's recent statement suggests that the US government's current financial situation is unsustainable [1] Gold as Portfolio Insurance - Gold is viewed as insurance for the portfolio due to uncertainty about the US government's financial sustainability [2] Gold Mining Company Investment Strategy - The company's screener can be used to find gold mining companies [2][3] - When investing in gold mining companies, prioritize those with high profitability, good financial strength, and good quality [4] - Investing in high-quality mining companies is recommended due to the cyclical nature of the gold industry [4] - Companies with strong financial strength are better positioned to withstand downward cycles [4] - The GF Score is a good measure of the quality and valuation of gold mining stocks [4] - Companies like Royal Gold and Southern Copper are mentioned as potential investment options based on their high rank in financial strength, profitability, and overall quality [4]

Market Valuation - The market was overvalued at the beginning of the year, then crashed to near bear market levels, down almost 20% for the S&P 500, reaching fair value, but has since recovered by 10% and is now slightly overvalued [3] - The speaker believes the market is slightly overvalued, contrasting with a fair valuation assessment from one to two weeks prior [4] Insider Trading Trends - Insider buying trends historically correlate with market valuation, with insider buying often signaling a good time to buy [4] - The historical average buy-to-sell ratio for insiders is about 04% [6] - Significant insider buying activity occurred during market downturns such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 2012 US government shutdown, and the 2020 pandemic when the market was down 30% within two weeks [7] - Recently, insider activity picked up as the market approached bear market territory, rising above the 04% average to around 05% in the last two months, suggesting insiders view it as a reasonably good time to buy [7][8] Data Analysis Methodology - The insider trading chart displays monthly cumulative data, calculated by dividing total insider buy counts by total sell counts for that month [9] - The calculation includes public market trading at current stock prices, excluding option exercises or private market deals [10] - The analysis counts transactions rather than the number of shares, though a "shares volume option" has been added this month [10][11] - Analyzing the buy-sell ratio is considered more effective than analyzing the sell-buy ratio [11][12] - Insider behavior as a group is more indicative of market trends than individual insider actions [13]

New Features and Tools - Guru Focus introduced a Mode Score and a Tariff Score to help investors assess a company's long-term competitive advantage and resilience to tariffs, respectively [5][6][7][12] - Guru Focus added a geographic revenue filter to the screener, allowing users to filter companies by revenue source (US, Canada, Europe, etc) [38][39][40] Mode Score Analysis - A good Mode Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effect, customer loyalty, and economies of scale [16][17] - Berkshire Hathaway has the highest Mode Score of 10, although the difference between 10 and 9 is not considered significant [19] - Microsoft has a robust wide mode due to its dominant market position, strong brand, extensive network effect, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [11] Tariff Score Analysis - A good Tariff Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is more impacted by tariffs, while Ford is ranked slightly higher [16] - Amazon's vast global supply chain and logistics network provides flexibility to mitigate tariff impacts, enhancing its resilience [17] Backtesting and Screening - Guru Focus offers backtesting functionality, allowing users to test investment strategies based on various filters and rankings [41][42][43][44] - The all-in-one screener allows filtering for companies with high Mode Score and high Tariff Resilience Score [16] - Users can download screener results to Excel or CSV files [27] Investment Philosophy and Market Views - Guru Focus emphasizes investing in high-quality companies with consistent business and high profit margins [20][21][68] - Guru Focus believes growth and profitability are more important than valuation, but does not want to buy stocks that are extremely overvalued [29][67][68] - The presenter personally owns gold due to concerns about the US national debt, which is growing faster than GDP and consuming a significant portion (20%) of government tax income [33][34][35] - Guru Focus warns against value traps, which are companies that appear undervalued but have underlying financial distress or declining growth [61][72][73]

Market Valuation & Insider Trends - The market was overvalued at the beginning of the year, crashed to near bear market territory (down almost 20% for the S&P 500), recovered 10%, and is now slightly overvalued [5] - Insider buying activity tends to increase during market downturns, as seen in 2008-2009, 2012, and 2020 [8] - Currently, the insider buy-to-sell ratio is around 05%, above the historical average of 04%, suggesting insiders view it as a reasonably good time to buy [9] - GuruFocus provides an insider trend chart that displays insider buying and selling activities, with each bar representing monthly cumulative data [10] Investment Strategies & Tools - Gold is considered as an insurance against potential US government debt issues, with interest payments nearing 20% of government income [16][17] - GuruFocus's screener can be used to find gold mining companies, filtering for those with high profitability, financial strength, and quality ranks [18][20] - GuruFocus offers a GF Value model, which correlates stock prices with revenue, earnings, cash flow, and book value to estimate fair multiple and current valuation [38][39] - GuruFocus has an AI function that uses Open AI and GuruFocus data to answer questions about stocks, such as fair value and future revenue growth [41][42][43] - GuruFocus supports backtesting using price to GF Value, allowing users to evaluate investment strategies [44][45][46] Website Updates & Features - GuruFocus is adding mode rank and tariff resilience rank for stocks, which will be available for filtering [50][51][52] - GuruFocus is considering adding GF Valuation charts for ETFs [60][61] - GuruFocus is considering adding a feature to screen for stocks below their lowest analyst price forecast [27][28]

Investment Opportunities & Valuation - GuruFocus suggests utilizing its features to identify promising investment opportunities [1] - The platform allows users to monitor insider buy-to-sell ratio trends, potentially signaling market bottoms [1] - GuruFocus provides valuation tools, including GF Score, GF Value, DCF (Discounted Cash Flow), and reverse DCF analysis [1] - Valuation correlations can be analyzed using GuruFocus's tools [1] GuruFocus Features & Tools - GF Value is a key metric offered by GuruFocus for stock valuation [1] - DCF valuation methods are available for assessing investment opportunities [1] - Backtesting capabilities are present within the GuruFocus platform [1] - Portfolio optimization tools are offered to GuruFocus members [1]