Labor Market Analysis - Initial market reaction to slightly higher than expected unemployment rate was quickly reassessed [1] - Labor force participation rate increase mitigates concerns about the unemployment rate [2] - November payroll number of 64,000 was close to expectations, and another payroll report before the January meeting will further diminish the importance of these figures [2] Consumer Spending and Earnings - Retail sales control group number was strong, indicating healthy consumer spending [3] - Average hourly earnings, while slightly weaker month-over-month, still show a 35% year-over-year increase, suggesting continued wage growth [3] - Real incomes and the wealth effect are supporting consumption, driving market movement [4] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly starting in March, combined with fiscal stimulus, could lead to a sell-off at the long end of the yield curve [4] - Bond market signals that while the Fed controls the short end, the long end reacts to better growth, sticky inflation, and high capital demand, pushing up the term premium [5] - Average hourly earnings growth of 35% year-over-year is the slowest pace since May 2021, influencing CPI expectations [6] Inflation and Tariffs - Inflation data, particularly CPI, is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy pivot [6][7] - Tariff-related components are seen as drivers of underlying inflation stickiness, with the key question being whether this is a one-off event or an ongoing inflationary process [8] - There is a consensus that tariff inflation should be a one-off event, with wages being a more critical factor in the process of inflation [9] - Wage growth, while still present, is also showing signs of slowing down [9]

Why exactly do they want to do this. Some of us need a rest. I know, right.I think we've kind of seen a push in this direction for a while. You know, the New York Stock Exchange has been planning a similar extension. I think one factor is, you know, retail investors, you know, they're already used to trading 24 seven on Robinhood and, you know, on crypto exchanges.And another factor that, you know, the Nasdaq statement pointed to is kind of global investors who kind of really want to be able to trade US sto ...

Experience suggests that labor market deterioration can occur quickly and non linearly and be difficult to reverse, in part because monetary policy lags several quarters. A quicker pace of easing policy, as I have advocated, would be appropriate, would appropriately move us closer to a neutral stance. Meanwhile, valuation concerns are bleeding into the emerging market space.MSCI's gauge of EM selling the most in three weeks. So let's get more market action now with Andrew Slimmon, Senior Portfolio Manager a ...

Let's first talk about what you're seeing in terms of sentiment and activity. We know that the past couple months have certainly been rough for crypto in terms of price action. How has that translated through into trading volumes.Yeah, that's really true. Like the price have come down quite a bit. But what we see from our customer base is really depending on the segment that you're looking at for a lot of our customers that are on the younger side.And so they have a price horizon that is a bit longer than, ...

The thing about the fashion change reminds me of one of my all-time favorite bubbles, market bubbles, which was the ostrich feather bubble in the 1800s where women would want ostrich feathers for their hats and they became really really expensive and then the bubble burst and all these ostrich farmers u mostly in Africa I think went bust. Yeah, they called the plenary trade and all kinds of shorebirds and and um yeah, it was a it's hard to picture now that you could just without regulation in coastal areas ...

Very good morning to you. So we're busy waiting for nonfarm payrolls. One and a half non-farm payrolls.Looking at us features a little bit weaker, weighing on sentiment for tech here in Europe as well. What do you make of the price action heading into the yet important data points. It's been very disappointing price action and I think this kind of choppy price action with a negative bent is going to be the dynamic for the festive period.I don't think it's so much about the jobs data. I think the job today i ...

A glimmer of hope for young professionals trying to get a foot on the property ladder in London. Apartments are at their most affordable level in 12 years for your typical worker. While properties in the capital are still extremely expensive, taking that first step into home ownership is now a little less daunting.Apartment prices have fallen below nine times the annual earnings of the typical London worker for the first time in 12 years. That means in real terms, London flat prices are 22% cheaper than the ...

How would you you follow this obviously, at a granular level. How would you sum up the year in gold. There's been a remarkable year.It's kind of been one of those periods of time when gold, I think, has managed to punch its way into the mainstream of kind of the the debate in financial markets. And I think that has been mostly just a reflection of its price. You know, it's set it's up about 63% now or something like that, which, as you say, is its best year since 1979.And then I think as well as that, I thi ...

A lot of positive sounding rhetoric. What underscores that what happened in these negotiations. Yeah, very positive rhetoric indeed.I mean, Trump saying that they are closer than they have ever been to a peace agreement in Ukraine. I mean, we can also say to that we've never really, ever been close. So may not be saying a whole lot, but according to some of the sources that we spoke to on the US side of those negotiations, they said that a consensus was reached on about 90% of the points of this peace agree ...

The gun law. Part of the debate is perhaps the easiest part. I mean, there is a popular misconception internationally that guns are illegal in Australia.That's not correct. Just certain types of guns are a subject crime. Who was shot dead by police on Sunday owns legally six firearms.He also a member of a gun club and held a firearms licence. So that's led to a debate that perhaps gun laws need to be tightened. Perhaps those licences should be reviewed periodically if circumstances change and in the case of ...