Federal Reserve Policy & Leadership - Kevin Hassett 被认为是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他与特朗普总统在经济和货币政策上的观点一致[1][3] - 市场预期 Hassett 可能会推动更快的降息，导致两年期国债收益率下降至 346% 左右，十年期国债收益率低于 4%[33][80] - Hassett 的任命可能会导致美联储内部出现分歧，影响 2026 年及以后的货币政策[38] - 现任美联储主席 Jerome Powell 的任期到 2026 年 5 月结束，但特朗普总统可能希望尽快任命 Hassett [10][11] Market & Economic Outlook - 市场普遍认为，美联储的独立性至关重要，但特朗普政府希望确保所有利率都降低[17][18] - 经济数据喜忧参半，零售销售数据略有疲软，但信用卡追踪数据显示 10 月份有所回升，整体经济表现良好[23] - 预计 12 月或 1 月可能会降息 25 个基点，但 2026 年初的财政刺激可能会给通胀带来上行压力，导致美联储暂停降息[21][25][27] - 劳动力市场正在放缓，但财政刺激可能会稳定劳动力市场，并可能给就业带来上行压力[28][30] Crypto & SPACs - 讨论了加密货币领域的 SPACS（特殊目的收购公司）与数字资产 Treasury 公司的合并，类似于“Turducken”结构[46][48][49] - 几家 SPAC 公司正在与加密货币公司合作，但比特币价格自历史高位下跌 30%，可能影响投资者对这些交易的看法[50][52] - 以太坊的价格自 8 月份高点下跌约 40%，但 Dynamo 仍然看好以太坊的长期发展，并认为其在人工智能发展中扮演重要角色[57][58][62] - Hyperion DEFI 的股价自 7 月份以来下跌了约 75%，该公司正在通过构建新的收入来源来应对数字资产跟踪公司面临的挑战[65][66]

President Trump has been pretty high on Kevin Hasset really since June. They had a bunch of private meetings in June that my sources told me went really well. Um and then you know the process just uh you know petered out a little bit.There have been so many sort of foreign policy challenges that he's been dealing with that that the Fed search just took a little bit of a back seat. Um and so now it is cropping back up now that people are looking to Powell's term ending in 2026 and Hasset really is still the ...

Give us your response, your thoughts on Kevin Hassett as the next potential Fed chair. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think he's he's seen by markets as as the candidate that is closest to the administration in terms of their their views on interest rates.And that is, you know is clearly more dovish than the the central you know, the consensus on the committee right now. You know, just in terms of the outlook for him, you know, it's no guarantee that Powell will step down from the board when his chairmanship chairma ...

Heating Oil Market Overview - Heating oil season officially starts with furnace activation, weather significantly impacts energy expenses [1] - Cold snaps or major storms cause demand spikes, driving up wholesale energy prices [1] Pricing Factors - Crude oil constitutes approximately 41% of heating oil cost, refining 24%, distribution and marketing 19%, and taxes 16% [2] - New York USD futures benchmark averaged 2.2876% per gallon in October, serving as a key indicator [2] Future Outlook - December and January futures show lower prices, suggesting potential relief [3] - US EIA forecasts heating oil users are projected to pay less for the upcoming season [3] - Market conditions like cold snaps, crude oil price movements, or supply disruptions can quickly shift the forecast [3]

During the government shutdown, the commodity markets are deprived of two pivotal reports that serve as crucial tools for traders to assess market movement and direction. The first report, the weekly export sales released on Thursday and the second, the CFTC report released on Friday are both instrumental in understanding market dynamics. Now that the government has reopened, the agencies responsible for collecting and releasing this data have begun to address the significant backlog resulting from the shut ...

Competition and Market Dynamics - The market is awakening to the possibilities of Google's TPUs, previously sold as part of a cloud-winning formula [1][2] - NVIDIA's dominance is being questioned, with analysts considering the impact of NVIDIA being brought down on the broader market [6] - Competition is seen as a positive development, offering choices and optionality in the AI CapEx landscape [7][8] - Alphabet's TPUs and associated software are emerging as a clear alternative to NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem, potentially chipping away at NVIDIA's lock-in [10] - Other companies like Alibaba and Amazon are also pursuing vertically integrated strategies, developing their own chips and models [12] Technology and Efficiency - Energy efficiency is a key bottleneck and a crucial factor in the AI infrastructure race [5][16][17] - The battleground is shifting towards how much efficiency can be extracted from hardware through software [14] - Google's DeepMind is collaborating directly with the semiconductor team to optimize efficiencies [15] Investment and Valuation - The market is trying to find a more efficient answer to the AI CapEx question, with Google surpassing a $1 trillion valuation [7] - The depreciation question is becoming more prominent, with investors needing to assess the long-term value of backlogs and inventory builds given new energy-efficient options [19] - Investors are rotating into value-focused sectors like healthcare and defensives, reflecting concerns about tech valuations [21]

What is the latest on negotiations then, as the two sides exchanged blows once again. Yeah, that's right, Tom. I mean, after those talks in Geneva, those 24 hours of frenzied diplomacy led by Marco Rubio, the secretary of state of the United States, and Andre Yermak, the sort of number two in Ukraine, in Geneva, we have now sort of a new adapt to that uptake of the 28 point plan that ripped through diplomatic circles at the end of last week, something that is now apparently a 19 point plan.There were appare ...

How did Baba do it, Tom. Where did it where did it exceed expectations. Yeah.Vonnie, an interesting time because we talk about those tensions between Japan and China and the moves by President Trump to secure the lead that the US currently has when it comes to A. I. because Alibaba really is a litmus test in terms of how far and how effectively China is particularly pushing the adoption, as well as the innovation around AI's.The top lines of revenue. Yes, it was a beat. E-commerce was also a big for Alibaba ...

Competitive Landscape - Alphabet's TPUs are positioned as a competitive threat to NVIDIA in the AI chip market [4] - The AI chip market is heating up with competition between Alphabet and NVIDIA [8] - Gemini 3 is posing a competitive challenge to OpenAI, impacting SoftBank's stock as a proxy for OpenAI [9] Technology and Performance - Google's TPUs are developed in-house and adapted based on large language model (LLM) performance, creating a feedback loop for improvement [2] - TPUs are effective for both training models and inference, with a focus on inference for Matter's potential deal [5][6] - TPUs need to prove their energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness [6] Partnerships and Demand - Anthropic is committed to a deal with Google for a large supply of TPUs, close to 1 million units [3] - Alphabet is a major spender on AI chips through partnerships with Anthropic [4] - There is strong demand for NVIDIA's Rubin chips, expected to be released in 2026 [7]

We've got a little bit of a disappointment in terms of retail sales. Headline retail sales come in up 2/10 of a percent. They were up 6/10 in the month of August.Now, remember, this is September data. The expectation was for a 4/10 rise. Ex autos were up 3/10, which is what was forecast.But the control group, we don't have that number yet, hasn't come through yet. We'll get that for you in just a second. But ex autos and gas of all the 8/10 of a percent.So a lot having to do with prices there in terms of PP ...