If Lecornu does not deliver his message. What happens. Yes, I do feel like it's Groundhog Day as we are living the same day over and over again and again today.It is the moment of truth for Sebastien Lecornu, who was supposed to deliver his general policy speech a week ago. But then he resigned after the rebellion from the Republicans before being reappointed on Friday. So today he's going to deliver his general speech, 2pm UK time.And what the socialists are calling for is a suspension of the pension refor ...

Trade Tensions & Market Impact - Market experienced a sell-off due to trade tension news, especially after frothy valuation levels [1] - Broad exemptions exist for Canada and Mexico, resulting in an effective tariff rate of approximately 3% for Canada [2] - Europe faces high tariff rates and an expensive currency, raising concerns about export competitiveness [3] - Broad tech exemptions in the US may delay or avoid tariff impacts on the tech sector [4] European Politics & Debt Sustainability - France faces a debt sustainability problem despite potential positive outcomes from new government efforts [5][6] - Market anticipates ECB intervention in the French bond market, regardless of fiscal deficits [6] - ECB's willingness to tolerate spread widening in French bonds remains untested, especially in scenarios like Macron's resignation [7] - Unexpected political moves in France and Japan introduce uncertainty [8] Japanese Politics & Inflation - Japan's political situation is complex, influenced by the LDP coalition's issues and US-China relations [9] - Inflation is a key concern for any incoming government in Japan [9] - A weak yen acts as a consumption tax, exacerbating inflation, incentivizing the government to stabilize the yen [10]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold companies are currently experiencing fantastic profit margins, potentially indicating over-earning [1] - Gold's purchasing power has been preserved for some items but not for all, such as Manhattan property [3][4] - Momentum is a crucial factor in the gold market, with speculators potentially causing volatility [5] - The trend suggests a potential repricing of paper currency relative to real assets, which could drive gold prices higher [6] Company Performance & Valuation - Underlying gold companies are earning enormous margins at current gold prices [10] - Gold equities may be cheap, despite significant gains this year, as the market starts to recognize their value [10] - Long-term gold price assumptions used in models (e.g., $2200-2400) represent a significant discount to current spot prices and the futures curve [11] - Sell-side analysts are upgrading long-term gold price forecasts, but these remain discounted compared to spot and forward curves [12] - Current equity pricing reflects expectations of a massive retracement from today's gold prices [12] External Factors & Market Sentiment - The over-printing of paper currency since the 1950s and growing social vitality contribute to a long-term trend supporting real assets [16] - Events like the Trump tariff threat can initially cause volatility, but subsequent comments may calm the market [14]

Market Trends - The fashion industry is seeing a rise in demand for pre-owned items with patina [1] - Brands like Rolex and Levi's are launching certified pre-loved resale programs [1] - Sustainability is a key driver for consumers interested in upcycling [1] - Younger shoppers are attracted to the well-worn look and more affordable price tags of resold items [1] Company Initiatives (Barbour) - Barbour offers repair and re-waxing services for its wax cotton jackets, which cost around $400 new [1] - Customers can receive an $80 store credit for trading in old jackets [1] - Barbour repairs and resells old coats, sometimes with colorful patches or stitching [1]

Madagascar's president Andry Rajoelina said he had sought sanctuary in a “secure location” because of a threat to his life following weeks of anti-government demonstrations. Rajoelina didn’t disclose where he had gone, but said in a social media post that he was overseeing the delivery of power generators to Madagascar, suggesting he had left the country. The development followed weekend claims by Rajoelina’s office that an attempt to seize power was under way. Bloomberg's Ondiro Oganga reports. -------- Mo ...

Gold Market & Central Bank Considerations - Gold price spiked to a record $4,000 this week, then moderated slightly [1] - South African central bank holds significant amounts of gold in reserves [2] - South Africa has gold reserves in the ground that can be mined if needed [2] Debt & Safe Assets - Concerns exist about rising debt levels globally, not just in the US [3] - Emerging markets debt has not increased as significantly as advanced economies debt [4] - Discussions around the safety of US treasuries (dollar) as a safe asset [3]

US-Australia Relations & Geopolitics - The US-Australia alliance remains strong, with Australia being largely exempt from criticism regarding allies exploiting the US, even with potential changes in US administration [5][6] - Australia and Papua New Guinea's security deal sends a message to China that Australia is the leading regional security partner in the Pacific Islands [15][16] - Australia's relationship with China has improved since 2022 due to Australia standing firm against economic coercion, setting a precedent for future relations [13][14] AUKUS Agreement & Defense - The Pentagon review of the AUKUS agreement is anticipated, with speculation that its results will be revealed before an upcoming meeting [1][2] - There is skepticism among defense observers regarding the US's ability to deliver submarines as promised under the AUKUS agreement, given the limitations of the American defense industrial capacity [3] - The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, indicated the review is positive for Australia and will endorse the core of the AUKUS agreement [2] Trade & Economic Policy - Specific deals with the US on rare earths may signal a shift away from open economic principles that have benefited Australia since the 1980s [11] - Despite the US running a trade surplus, there is surprise that Australia was hit with trade issues [8] - Australia's biggest trading partner is China, requiring a balancing act between relationships with China and the US [12]

Hamas freed all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip on Monday morning, following a US-led deal reached late last week. The Palestinian militant group handed them to the International Committee of the Red Cross in two batches, with Israel receiving the first seven hostages and the final 13 later. Around the same time, Israel began freeing jailed Palestinians. There were scenes of jubilation in cities such as Ramallah in the West Bank and Khan Younis in Gaza as they got out of buses to be ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - Short squeeze events, similar to those observed in 2011 with futures curves, are currently impacting silver prices, potentially leading to inflated values [1] - Silver is outperforming gold this year, but underperforming on a risk-adjusted basis, exhibiting approximately two times the volatility of gold [2] - Precious metals like platinum, palladium, and silver are catching up to gold, driven by their greater industrial applications compared to gold's increasing role as a store of value [2][3] - Monitoring the VIX is crucial, as a recovery in S&P stock market volatility could exert downward pressure on metals other than gold, particularly silver [3][4] - A price differential exists, with silver being shipped to the U S from London to capitalize on it [5] Key Levels & Ratios - The $50 level, previously a resistance point, is transitioning into a support level for silver prices [6] - The gold-silver ratio is around 79, acting as a support level, with a range of 80-105 observed over the past year [9] - A gold-silver ratio below 80 indicates a potential global economic pickup and increased demand for industrial metals like silver [9] - A rise in stock market volatility could push the gold-silver ratio towards 100, while the ratio peaked at 105 in April when the stock market peaked [9][10] Risk Considerations - Caution is advised when buying silver at current levels, especially given its historical volatility ("devil's metal") and potential for short covering rallies [7] - Recovering stock market volatility poses a pressure factor for silver and a potential demand factor for gold [6]

What's been so interesting about these golden touches from OpenAI for some of the big publicly traded companies is usually open AI has been given a sweetener by Nvidia or by AMD. Broadcom, it just seems to be independence that they give to OpenAI. Yeah.And I think the model here is the Google TPU model. I mean, when you think about Broadcom's almost $20 billion run rate for AI chips, more than half of that is from Google TPUs. So what open AAI is saying is you help us get there in terms of the ramp up like ...