Market Performance & Trends - Nasdaq 上涨超过 2%，标普上涨 1.5%，整体市场风险偏好较高 [2] - 半导体板块表现强势，大部分股票上涨 [2] - 黄金上涨约 2.8%，与股市和加密货币市场的风险偏好不一致 [4] - 信息技术板块上涨约 2.7%，领涨各行业板块 [8] - Palantir 股票经历投资者重新评估，此前 Michael Barry 的 Scion Asset Management 披露持有价值约 9.12 亿美元的看跌期权 [9] Company Specific News - Micron Technology 股价上涨约 6.5%，成为标普和纳斯达克 100 指数中的领涨股 [11] - TSMC 的 ADR 上涨约 3%，尽管其增长率降至 18 个月以来的最低水平 [12] - e.l.f Beauty 宣布在墨西哥 Ulta Beauty 正式推出品牌后，股价上涨超过 8% [13] - C3 股价一度上涨 12%，因有消息称该公司正在探索潜在出售或其他选择，最终收盘上涨约 3.6% [13] - Centene 股价下跌 8.8%，原因是立法者即将结束政府停摆，但未能延长《平价医疗法案》 [14] - Oscar Health 股价下跌 17.5% [16] - American Airlines 股价下跌 2.5%，该公司表示周末运营因政府停摆而面临挑战，取消了 1400 架次航班，延误超过 57000 分钟，影响了 25 万名客户 [17][19] - Met Sarah 股价下跌近 15%，此前 Novo Nordisk 拒绝进一步提高对该公司的收购要约 [20] Paramount Skydance - 公司预计总效率将提高 30 亿美元以上 [22] - 计划在 2026 年第一季度初在美国实施价格上涨 [23] - 计划额外裁员 1600 人 [24] - 预计 2026 年收入约为 300 亿美元 [30] The RealReal - 第三季度调整后每股亏损为 0.04 美元，低于预期的 0.056 美元 [24] - 第四季度营收预计为 1.88 亿至 1.91 亿美元，高于预期的 1.795 亿美元 [25]

Do you personally approve of the deal that's happening right now on Capitol Hill to end the government. >> Well, it depends what deal we're talking about, but if it's a deal I heard about that's certainly, you know, they want to change the deal a little bit, but I would say so. I think based on everything I'm hearing, they haven't changed anything and we have support from enough Democrats and we're going to be opening up our country.It's too bad it was closed, but we'll be opening up our country very quickl ...

Well, right now the tariffs are very high on India because of the Russian oil and they've stopped doing the Russian oil. It's it's been reduced very substantially. Yeah, we're going to be bringing the tariffs down.You know, we're making a deal with India, much different deal than we had in the past. So, right now they don't love me, but they'll love us again. Uh we're getting a fair deal, just a fair trade deal.We had pretty unfair trade deals. They're very good negotiators, sir. Just you have to take a loo ...

How do you look at the way that this might evolve and what that that might mean, how it might play out. >> I sort of see this as there being a few different options if we're talking specifically about what the military options are. You know, one would be using uh some of the covert assets that the US uses, trying to use special operations forces to do some type of regime change from within.Um I think that that's a little bit more of a less likely scenario. So instead, that makes me think that there's probab ...

Well, it's the end of an era on Wall Street, Legendary investor Warren Buffett says he is, quote, going quiet and speeding up the pace of donating some $1.3% billion to four of his family's foundations. Joining us now is Bloomberg's Alex Rossman, who follows Buffett closely and just wrote this story. Alex, I guess when it comes, of course, to Buffett going quiet when it comes to the annual letters.Not entirely unexpected given that he has handed over the reins. Right, Right. He's not going to write the annu ...

Joining us right now to talk a little bit more about this is David Joyce Seaport, research partner, senior analyst. And David, I mean, ultimately, when you take a look at where David Ellison is nudging this company, I was looking through the shareholder letter. He kind of does sort of chart a path for at least what content looks like more importantly.And I'm curious if you think that content strategy translates into actual revenue growth. Well, I think they do have to populate their services, especially Par ...

Economic Outlook - The economy has been resilient, with growth around 18% [2] - The labor market is near full employment but cooling, with both demand and supply decreasing [2][13] - Inflation is closer to 3% than the 2% target [2] - Consumption remains resilient, driven by wealth effects for higher-income households and increased debt for lower-income households [6][7] Consumer Finances - Consumer balance sheets are generally okay, but there was an increase in subprime loan and credit card defaults over the past year, which has since stabilized [8][9] - Lower-income consumers are increasingly using credit card debt to maintain consumption [7] - Many people are having more month than money, with increased visits to food pantries and requests for utility assistance [27] Company Concerns - Companies report that uncertainty has plateaued, allowing them to operate with a higher level of uncertainty [11] - Companies are experiencing higher costs, including those related to tariffs and insurance [11] - Companies closer to the consumer are having difficulty passing on costs due to pushback from buyers [12][13] - Companies are more concerned about non-interest costs, such as raw material and insurance costs, than interest costs [21] Labor Market - The labor market is cooling in an orderly way, with both supply and demand decreasing [13] - Compensation growth is reported to be between 35% and 4% [6] - Layoff announcements have been made, but weekly claims remain stable [13][14] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral, closer to neutral [26] - The real federal funds rate is around 1%, which is the long-run neutral rate [26] - In the past year, the real federal funds rate has declined by 250 basis points, with 150 basis points from nominal interest rate reductions and 100 basis points from rising expected inflation due to tariffs [19] - There is limited room to ease policy further without it becoming overly accommodative [24][25] - It is important to bring inflation back towards 2% to allow households to catch up with their real incomes [28] Asset Prices - Financial conditions are very accommodative, and asset valuations are notable [29] - House prices and stock prices seem elevated relative to historical standards [30]

Mergers & Acquisitions - The bidding war between Novo Nordisk and Pfizer for weight loss drug startup Met Sara has ended, with Novo Nordisk stepping aside [1] - Novo Nordisk withdrew its offer due to potential regulatory risks flagged by the FTC regarding the deal structure [1] - Pfizer intends to acquire Met Sara to enter the obesity business [3] Weight Loss Drug Market - The industry anticipates lower costs and greater availability of weight loss drugs in oral form within a year or two [4] Delivery Services - Instacart's futures are up 6-8%, indicating strong demand for grocery and restaurant delivery services [4][5] - Instacart generates approximately 29% of its revenue from non-delivery transactions, including grocery technology, subscriptions, and advertising sales [6] - Instacart introduced an AI-powered assistant for grocers to aid in purchasing decisions [6] Food Industry - Tyson Foods - Tyson Foods' shares decreased by as much as 15% [8] - Tyson Foods anticipates little change in results for the next year [8] - The beef segment is projected to experience an adjusted operating loss of $400 million to $600 million next year [8] - A cattle shortage is driving up prices for Tyson Foods [8] - The U S cattle herd is expected to begin rebuilding next year, but the benefits won't be seen before 2028 [9] - Higher demand for chicken is offsetting losses in the beef segment [9][10]

You know, Tom, it's really a tale of two producers. You've got the super majors, the big guys, and they've managed to get some significant scale that's driven a lot of efficiencies and driven down cost. And then you have the smaller guys who really have to have well above $65 a barrel to to make significant money.So there's there's a difference between the two producers and it's tempered. We're seeing some really depressed oil prices recently. And it's it's not a it's not a great mood here in Houston.So. An ...

Do we expect to see voting tonight in the Senate. How quick in John Thune get this done. So he needs consent from all 100 senators to move this along.We're expecting some folks, including Senator Rand Paul, who who typically holds these things up to do just that, which would then essentially put the brakes on. They have to ride out a clock, take another procedural vote, right out the clock again. So it could be days instead of hours.But this morning, Senator Thune was saying he's hoping it's the hours measu ...