I pulled some data together, Nick, if you could pull up the basics. I know we talk about this a lot, but I thought it would be good to show the difference between kind of a normal distribution and a power law distribution. like venture returns or I don't like to call it venture returns but I do think the returns generally in free markets create value creation in a power law distribution which means that a few of the many account for the vast majority of the capital appreciation of the the value creation and ...

Midterm & 2028 Election Key Issues - The economy is expected to be a major determinant in the midterms, influencing safety, security, immigration, tariffs, and rates [2][9] - Interest rates are identified as a significant swing factor, with concerns about the Federal Reserve's data interpretation [2] - Real wages, housing, education, and healthcare are highlighted as key issues that are not being adequately addressed by some political figures [10][11][12] Political Candidacy & Strategies - Being ahead early in the Republican primary process is seen as a disadvantage [4] - The Democratic party faces a challenge in balancing socialist-leaning primary dynamics with the broader electorate's preferences [7] - A potential Democratic strategy involves focusing on stagnant real wages and issues like minimum wage, unaffordable education, and housing [10][11][12] - Emphasizing a candidate's record, particularly in states like California, is suggested as a way to attack performative politics [19][20] California's Economic & Social Landscape - California faces challenges including high taxes, poor public services, a significant budget deficit (turning a $75 billion surplus into a $20 billion deficit), high rates of poverty, homelessness, inequality, illiteracy, and wage stagnation [20][21][22] - Despite having the fourth largest economy in the world, California struggles with high housing and energy costs, as well as high rates of retail crime and frivolous lawsuits [21][22][23] - Businesses are reportedly leaving California due to these issues [24] State Comparisons & Democratic Candidate Evaluation - An AI-driven analysis ranks Maryland, Michigan, and California based on quality of life, cost of living, and crime, with Maryland ranked highest overall [26][27][28] - Democratic voters will need to consider the records of potential candidates from California, Maryland, and Michigan [28] - Based on the AI analysis, Wes Moore (Maryland) and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) are ranked higher than Gavin Newsom (California) based on facts [29]

AI Talent Acquisition & Market Dynamics - Meta is reportedly downsizing its AI division and has implemented a hiring freeze, despite recent efforts to acquire AI talent and invest heavily in the field [1] - The AI talent war saw exorbitant offers, with claims of hundred-million-dollar offers for OpenAI talent, but the market is now experiencing a pause as companies consolidate their acquisitions [2][3] - Founders have been turning down multi-billion-dollar acquisition offers, indicating a unique boom cycle where strategic value outweighs immediate financial gain [3] Investment & Valuation - The industry is likely in the early to middle stages of an investment super cycle, with the current sentiment shift representing a healthy correction rather than a bubble burst [5] - Valuations are currently justified by strategic value to trillion-dollar market cap companies, but long-term success requires building companies with strong fundamentals and substantial revenue [9][10] - The hypothetical valuation of OpenAI could reach 1.5 trillion USD based on conservative estimates of user growth and revenue conversion, potentially tripling the initial investment [12][13] AI Model Application & Business Value - Generalized AI models have a low success rate (around 5%) in large enterprises, while specialized vertical models demonstrate greater success in driving business value [13] - Vertical AI systems offer more deterministic results due to tighter problem and data sets, achieving higher accuracy (around 99%) compared to general LLMs [15] - Solving the "last mile problems" and achieving the final 10% accuracy is crucial for realizing business value in AI applications, requiring industry-specific knowledge and data integration [13][16]

Market Dynamics & Valuation - Founders are rejecting multi-billion dollar acquisition offers, creating a perception that such offers are common [1] - Valuations are currently justified by strategic value to multi-trillion dollar market cap companies, but this is unsustainable if those companies exit the market for strategic acquisitions [3] - Achieving a $30 billion valuation based on business fundamentals is exceptionally challenging [3] Investment & Risk - Some individuals may have significant personal wealth from previous ventures (e.g., OpenAI equity sales), reducing their incentive to sell [2] - There's a risk that newcomers to the market may misinterpret the current environment as the norm, leading to potential miscalculations [2]

AI Investment & Market Correction - AI stocks experienced a correction due to an MIT study and comments about a bubble, alongside a hiring freeze at Zuck [1] - A healthy correction in sentiment towards AI occurred, applying skepticism to fantastical claims [13] - The AI sector is still considered to be in a boom and investment super cycle [13] - A roughly 10% correction in public AI stocks was observed [13] AI Implementation Challenges & ROI - 95% of generative AI pilots are failing to make it to production due to employee resistance, poor quality output, and resource misallocation [2][14] - 70% of generative AI budgets are allocated to sales and marketing tools, which have poor ROI [2] - The highest ROI is found in back-office optimization, such as automating tasks to cut back spends [3] - Many companies are generating $50 million of ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) in a matter of months [8] AI Technology & Future Trends - The industry is undergoing a sorting and cleansing process, requiring rebuilding from first principles [11] - The development of AI technology is expected to be a more normal technology race, not a loop of recursive self-improvement [22][23] - AI progress is becoming more incremental and evolutionary rather than revolutionary [20]

This is our first full year of business. We'll do about $40 million of bookings >> in the first year. >> Yeah, >> that's crazy.>> Our first customer where we delivered enormous gains, we were fired. And the reason we were fired was not because the technology wasn't working, but it's because as it goes lower and lower from the board and the CEO into the bowels of the organization, you actually run into huge push back. And I think that there's going to be that cycle that we have to deal with as well, which is ...

According to Poly Market, Gavin Newsome is the early favorite in the 2028 Democratic presidential race. So, who gets the nomination. Is any of this even valid, Saxs, in your mind, or is it just too much time between now and then.Well, I think it's valid in the sense that you're seeing Democrats react positively to what Newsome is doing. And what Newsome is doing is mirroring Trump's style in an attempt to give Democrats what they want, which is they want a Trump of their own. And despite Democrats figning o ...

Overview of Salana - Salana is described as one of the fastest-growing blockchains globally [1] - Salana aims to be the fastest and cheapest global state machine [2] - The goal is to build technology accessible to anyone worldwide, positioning everyone as a potential customer [2] Leadership and Innovation - Anatoli serves as the CEO of Salana, driving Web3 innovation at Salana Labs [1] Institutional Investment - BlackRock expanded its $17 billion (1.7% billion * 10) tokenized money market fund to Salana [1] Market Outlook - The industry anticipates that crypto will eventually prevail [2]

Freeberg, you think that we should What do you do with the mortgage market. You >> God, it's so difficult. I don't know.>> Do you just basically privatize Freddy and Fanny and let them underwrite. >> I 100% think you got to privatize Freddy and Fanny as a first step. >> And then you have to stop underwriting student debt so that you don't underwrite the $200,000 degrees.>> I believe 100% in ending the federal student loan program. And I think that it will force a restructuring of the of the entire higher ed ...

The theory back in the 90s of how you reduce crime was the the broken windows theory. Yeah. Which is that you get rid of the entry- level crimes and you get rid of the visible manifestations of lawlessness and chaos because when you create an environment in which it appears that those things are tolerated, then you will end up getting more of it.That was a theory in the '90s and absolutely worked. And what you've got in DC is the opposite of it. And I think what President Trump has said is, "Look, first of ...