We're all at fault. It's all like, well, how can we do this more efficiently. Well, do what.Like, in the end, I want to live in a society where people live in single family homes with little lawns that they own that are not going to be taken away from them, like actual property rights, not theoretical properties. It's like my house. Okay.I want married people and I want them to have children and grandchildren with the rough assurance, the future of course being fundamentally unknown, but rough assurance tha ...

Corporate Bankruptcy Trends - Corporate bankruptcies in 2025 have reached the highest level since 2010, following the Great Financial Crisis [1][3] - As of July 2025, there have been 446 large corporate bankruptcies, defined as public companies with at least $2 million in debt or private companies with at least $10 million in assets or liabilities [1][3] - The increase in bankruptcies is linked to the rate hike cycle in 2022 and 2023 [3] Contributing Factors to Bankruptcies - Artificially suppressed interest rates at zero for an extended period allowed companies to raise excessive capital, delaying inevitable bankruptcies [6][7] - The lack of "creative destruction" in American company formation since the GFC has led to a backlog of companies that should have failed [9][10] - Relaxed constraints on M&A activity may lead to more aggressive acquisitions of assets from floundering businesses, contributing to bankruptcies [12][13] - Increased competition from unexpected companies is putting pressure on various business categories [14] Retail Sector Vulnerability - Retail businesses with physical locations are particularly vulnerable due to the leverage associated with long-term leases, which are akin to debt [18][19] - Macro trends of declining foot traffic to physical locations, influenced by companies like Amazon and Shein, exacerbate the challenges for retailers [18] Commercial Real Estate Debt Crisis - Approximately $2.2 trillion of commercial real estate (CRE) debt is maturing before 2028, posing refinancing challenges [24] - Higher interest rates and declining real estate valuations are making it difficult for developers to refinance debt, potentially leading to foreclosures [26][27] - Banks are hesitant to foreclose on commercial real estate due to the negative impact on their balance sheets, leading to restructuring efforts [24] - Traditional office construction is facing headwinds as financing flows shift towards data centers, further straining the commercial real estate sector [30]

Government Investment & National Security - 美国政府收购英特尔 10% 的股份，旨在将芯片制造业转移回美国本土，解决国家安全问题 [1][13] - 芯片法案提供数十亿美元的贷款和 90 亿美元的赠款，以支持芯片制造回流 [1] - 此次股权收购是政府对芯片法案的调整，旨在从对芯片制造商的投资中获得回报，而非无偿赠款 [1][15] - 股权收购模式优于以往政府在经济困境时无偿提供资金的做法，允许美国纳税人分享企业增长的收益 [9] - 股权换取模式可以为公司提供正确的激励，避免公司不断寻求政府救助 [12][15] - 自由市场未能实现芯片制造回流的目标，因此需要政府干预 [13][16] Comparison with China's Approach - 中国政府通过平衡表支持关键产业公司，有时会要求获得“金股”以控制董事会 [4] - 中国利用其在稀土等行业的股权，通过价格操纵等手段扰乱市场，从而锁定资本市场，排挤竞争对手 [5][6] - 与中国不同，美国政府的股权投资不寻求控制权，保持透明度，并允许资本市场为这些企业融资 [9] Potential Concerns & Future Implications - 这种模式是否会成为常态，美国政府是否会开始通过股权换取贷款和赠款，引发争议 [2][3] - 股权换取模式需要考虑国家安全利益或类似情况，以及自由市场未能实现优先事项的情况 [16]

I honestly believe that the AI revolution is underhyped. Now, why is this all important. >> Eric Schmidt is here.He's the former Google executive chairman and CEO. >> These agents are going to be really powerful, and they'll start to work together. We're soon going to be able to have computers running on their own, deciding what they want to do.>> Now, we have the arrival of a new nonhuman intelligence, which is likely to have better reasoning skills than humans can have. So if you were emperor of the world ...

Fed Independence & Political Influence - The financial industry suggests the Federal Reserve is not independent and its appointees are partisan, similar to other government branches [2][3][4][14][17] - The industry questions whether a sitting president should have the authority to remove a Fed governor if their views are misaligned with the electorate's wishes [4] - The industry proposes revisiting the notion of the Fed's independence, considering that many of its functions could be better handled by the Treasury or other entities [17] - The industry acknowledges the 14-year terms for Fed governors are designed to insulate them from political cycles, promoting institutional resilience [17][18][21] Monetary Policy & Data Reliability - The financial sector expresses concern over the Fed's monetary policy decisions, which are based on potentially inaccurate data [6][7][11] - The industry suggests that capital markets and free markets are more effective at achieving price stability than the Fed [8] - The industry highlights the potential for real-time pricing oracles, utilizing blockchain-published economic data, to improve market efficiency [11][12][13] Fed's Role & Responsibilities - The industry questions whether the Fed should continue to act as a lender of last resort, suggesting the Treasury could perform this function more effectively [8] - The industry generally agrees that the Fed can continue its banking supervision and regulation, as well as its role as a payment system and clearing house [9][10] - The industry emphasizes the importance of considering the long-term costs of capital and the US's ability to service its debt when making monetary policy decisions [19][20]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The report suggests that in the summer of 2021, when inflation reached 5%, Pal aligned with Biden and Yellen, characterizing it as "transitory," delaying policy changes for 6 months [1] - The analysis indicates that Pal's renomination for a second term by Biden on November 22nd, 2021, was potentially influenced by his adherence to the "transitory" narrative, which he abandoned shortly after on November 30th [2] - The report claims that the "transitory" narrative contributed to an asset bubble in 2021, a 9% inflation rate the following year, and the market crash in 2022 and 2023 [4] Political Influence & Fed Independence - The report implies that Pal's actions were politically motivated, suggesting that contradicting the Biden administration on the "transitory" narrative could have jeopardized his renomination [3] - The analysis points out that Pal initiated a rate-cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut shortly after Elizabeth Warren urged the Fed to do so, raising questions about political influence [5] - The report highlights perceived hypocrisy in Elizabeth Warren's stance, noting her previous demand for rate cuts when inflation was at 250 basis points (25%) and her current opposition to rate cuts [6]

Political Analysis - Rick Caruso is a competent developer who prioritizes safety and cleanliness in his developments [1] - Running a city is like running a business for the benefit of residents, requiring good business decisions [1] - Rick Caruso now has a golden road in the governor's race if he wants it [1] - The decline of LA over the last decade is tragic, with people paying huge consequences [2]

[Music] Mark Cuban is here since he was a child. He wanted to be an entrepreneur. I just love to compete for whatever reason.I do. We want all our fellow Americans to succeed. The Dallas Mavericks are NBA champions, the first title in franchise history.One of America's most famous professional sports owners is selling his beloved team. You've done a reality show. Just retired from that.Cashed out of the Mavericks check. kind of adds up to you're going to run for president. No. No. There's no way.No. ...

Do you think we should have a sovereign wealth fund. >> I think that we should start a sovereign wealth fund right now. And who should fund it.The great news is that these Trump tariff deals come with huge amounts of capital that these other countries have committed to spending inside the United States. We've exceeded a trillion dollars of inbound capital on the investment side. We get 90% of the upside.A lot of that capital should be the seed capital for a sovereign wealth fund. The concern I have is anyti ...

What does the Fed actually do in 2025. We have an extremely vibrant and complicated and interconnected $130 trillion global economy. It's moving at the speed of light.The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine what monetary policy, what the money supply should look like based on data that is often incorrect. We see that in the BLS data. We see that in the GDP prints. We see it in all of the inputs.So, I think the real question is there are certain parts of what the Fed does that they can continue t ...