Market Trends & Loan Demand - Market conditions are near record highs, with increased risk appetite driving M&A and IPO activity [1] - Consumer spending is supported by strong credit quality and home equity, but is contingent on labor and wage growth [2] - Small businesses are profitable but concerned about labor availability [2][3] - Mid-sized clients are utilizing lines of credit less actively than pre-pandemic [3] - A 24% economic growth is expected next year, which should foster deal-making [5] Competitive Landscape - The banking sector faces competition from 4,000 entities, including non-banks, private equity, and fintech companies [8] - The competitive nature of the industry leads to consistent returns over time, even as return on assets decreases [13] Expense Management & Investment - The company manages expense growth primarily through headcount management, aiming for efficiency and reinvestment in client development and technology [9] - Headcount has remained relatively flat over the past 5-6 years, with the addition of 4,000 technology coders and 2,000 relationship managers [9] - The company's turnover rate is approximately 8% annually, representing 16,000 people [10] - Expense growth was approximately 4-45% year-over-year in 2024, and around 4% plus in the fourth quarter [11] - Factoring in the FDIC credit, fourth-quarter expense growth is closer to 25-3% [12] - The company is investing $42 billion annually in new technology initiatives, in addition to a $10 billion base [12]

the housing market faces um some really significant challenges and uh I don't know that you know a 25 basis point decline in the federal funds rate is going to make much of a difference for people. Um you know housing supply is low. Many people have very very low low uh uh low rate mortgages from the pandemic period and they kept refinancing and caught the the really low.So it's may expensive to them to move and you know we're we're a ways away from that changing. Also we're just we haven't built enough hou ...

So I don't think that um a a rate hike is anybody's base as the next thing is anybody's base case at this point and I'm not hearing that. What you what you see is um some people feel we should stop here and and that we're at the right place and just wait. Some people feel like we should cut once or more this year and next year.But the the but when people are writing down their estimates of policy of where it should go, it it is is either holding here or cutting a little or cutting more than a little. So I d ...

Is there any point in which those descents become counterproductive either to, you know, the Fed's communication and the messaging around the policy path forward. >> I wouldn't I don't feel that we're at that point at all. I don't I I would say again, these are these are good, thoughtful, respectful discussions and you hear people say, and you'll hear you hear many many outside analysts say the same thing.I could make a case for either for either side. I mean, I I could make that case. It's it's a close cal ...

Well, let's get another check on Oracle meantime after Q2 numbers that that were out just moments ago. Shares are under pressure down about 4% right now off the worst levels. Joining us now is Rishi Galura.He is RBC's software analyst. He has a sector perform rating a 310 price target on Oracle. Rishi, your initial takeaway on what we got from this earnings report.>> Yeah, absolutely. Thanks so much for having me. Always a pleasure to be here.Look, I think it was a pretty inline quarter. uh you know they ob ...

The adjustments since September um bring our policy within a broad range of estimates of neutral and as we noted in our statement today, we are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. Uh that new language points out that we'll carefully evaluate that incoming data. Uh and also I would note that having reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last Septem ...

for us to sustain and actually advance and give all the young girls the pathway that if you really put your mind to it and put 100% in it, you could be as successful as your next door boys and provide that pathway. Significant more investment has to go in. And I certainly don't have the level of uh you know resources to put in to make that happen.But I want it to be a small match that light the fire uh so that this can start sort of the movement and and more people will follow so that we can build some crit ...

Well, the Dow's up 1% after the Fed cut rates and Fed Chair Powell saying the real division within the Fed now is whether to hold or cut versus any potential hike in the near future. Joining us now is Jeffrey's chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos. David, the president wanted a half a point cut here.Uh is this quarter enough. >> I think the quarter's uh you know being rejoiced a little bit in the market just because the the market was set up for this hawkish cut and they didn't get it. ...

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. ...

Morgan, that's right. President Trump, as you take a live look, still speaking to reporters uh in the Roosevelt room at the White House. He was having a meeting with CEOs.That event ongoing. President's just been talking about the Fed as you guys have been discussing the Fed. He confirmed that he has a meeting with Kevin Walsh.Uh that's been sort of widely speculated about or reported. But the president also said, "I sort of have a very good idea of what I'm looking for in terms of a Fed chair candidate." H ...