Market Outlook - The market reacts significantly to Trump's tweets, but the actual economy is slowing sharply in the second half [1] - Strategists are mostly following what the market is doing, not thinking outside the box with big bold numbers [8] - May to October is a seasonally fraught period, with weakness occurring 60-65% of the time in the last century [9] - There are signs consumers could slow down, as seen in disappointing early Amazon Prime data [10] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is expected to breach 3% by year-end, based on the core personal consumption expenditure deflator (core PCE) [2] - A soft stagflationary environment with inflation above the 2% target and a slowing economy will affect S&P 500 earnings, including big tech [2] - The market may experience an echo of the stagflationary trades seen in the first four months of the year, though potentially half as bad (around 12% drop instead of over 20%) [3] - Inflation faced easy anniversary comparisons, but six-month annualized data and individual components of core PCE suggest inflation is sticky [5][6] Fed Policy - With a slowing economy and sticky inflation, fewer Fed cuts are expected [10] Potential Market Pullback - The market anticipates some weakness in the second half of the year [9] - A pullback is expected due to a slowing economy, slowing earnings, sticky inflation, and fewer Fed cuts [10]

I don't know if you've seen uh any headlines. Chuckmuk suggesting they're off to a slow start here, but what are your expectations for Prime Day. Yeah, I think the move to four days is a big deal.You know, upwards of 20 billion in revenue. I I don't think that the street is fully accounting for that. Could add another point of growth uh in the second quarter or in the third quarter rather, pushing them into the double uh digit range.and um and and we think that you know they'll continue to take share their ...

Mr. . Bellski, what's your final trade, sir. Been good having you.Hey, thanks a lot for having us. Uh, Senovas Financial, SNV, 10 times earnings, 12 times free cash flow. Okay, Shan.Uh, financials deregulation is going to be a very significant tailwind for the sector. Okay. You're welcome for us having you two.I mean, since Brian set the precedent, I mean, I feel like it's Thank you for having me. You're very welcome. You're very welcome, Jenny.Are you thankful to have me. Thank you. Go ahead.Next, Tara pre ...

Portfolio Adjustment - The company sold Organon after it cut its dividend and the stock price declined [1][2] - The company bought VICI Properties, a triple net lease REIT specializing in gaming and casino properties [1][3][4] VICI Properties Investment Rationale - VICI Properties owns 93 properties, including 54 casinos such as the Venetian and Mandalay Bay, and 39 experiential properties [4] - VICI Properties has a strong management team [4] - VICI Properties offers a 53% dividend yield and an expected 3% FFO growth [5] - VICI Properties' rent escalators are tied to CPI, potentially benefiting from rising inflation [5] - VICI Properties' tenants (e g MGN and Caesars) ensure 100% occupancy and rent collection, even during the pandemic [6] - The investment in VICI Properties is expected to generate a 9-10% annualized return [7] - VICI Properties is considered a compelling investment in a lower growth environment [8]

Industry Trend & Legislation - Gig economy companies like DoorDash, Uber, and Lyft are exploring providing benefits for gig workers [1] - Senator Bill Cassidy introduced a bill to allow companies to offer portable benefits to independent contractors without making them full-time employees [2] - Senators Tim Scott and Rand Paul are also introducing legislation to update labor laws for gig workers and provide health and retirement benefits [4] - Several states are moving bills to allow for portable benefits, including Wisconsin, which passed a bill into law last month [5] Company Initiatives & Perspectives - DoorDash and Lyft have launched pilot programs in various states to offer portable benefits, contributing a fraction of a worker's earnings into a savings account [1] - DoorDash believes federal labor policy needs updating to account for gig workers [2] - DoorDash states current employment law penalizes companies wanting to provide employee-like benefits to independent contractors, risking contractor status [3] Portable Benefits Usage & Impact - A DoorDash pilot program in Pennsylvania found that approximately 33% of Dashers used portable benefits to take time off [3] - Approximately 20% of Dashers in the Pennsylvania pilot program used the funds for emergencies [4] - Dashers who participated in the DoorDash Pennsylvania pilot program earned roughly $400 in portable benefits over a year [4]

We'll take you to the markets. We are mixed. Dow is lower.Everything else is in the green. We're reacting, of course, to those new tariffs. The president says they're not going to change and there won't be any extensions either.I don't think Wall Street necessarily believes that because the S&P is still in positive territory. So, to my point, here come the strategist. David Cen, Goldman Sachs raises his S&P 500 valuation and return forecast for 36 in the next 12 months.3% 6,400 or six months 6600 and uh 6,9 ...

So I I mentioned institutional level selling by way of that BFA note. The committee level there's selling here on this desk. Brian Bellski sold Nike, Prologis, and Restaurant Brands.Those are large cap stocks. Why'd you do that. Well, Restaurant Brands was uh a name that we own in a lot of Canadian portfolio.So it didn't make sense to own in uh our US value much, but it didn't really work the way that we wanted to work. We had a nice bounce in it, but we didn't uh see it. Nike had the big bounce.We talked a ...

President Trump, could I ask you a question about Jerome Pal as well and then a question to thetorney about what. Uh Jerome Pal. Um and then I have a question for the attorney general.Uh Jerome Pal, who you've been pressuring to lower interest rates. Uh he's facing accusations of lying to Congress, which is a potential crime about the he should resign immediately. We should get somebody in there that's going to lower interest rates.Do you want congressional Why don't you call for his resignation. Do do you ...

flurry of deals. We hear in the next 24 hours will hear a flurry of deals that we have a lot of them going out, but the deals are mostly my deal to them. Uh we're picking a number that's low.We don't want to hurt them and fair. Uh we're picking a number that's lower than in most cases lower than what they charge us. But it's amazing when you've paid all this money for years and they get one president that's a little bit different and a little tougher on this subject and they're willing to drop everything th ...

Well, we look at a lot of different factors. The demographic, the psychoraphic, current W Fandon, corporate partners like Fortune 500 and Russell 1000 companies based there, uh, arena, practice facility, player experience. I mean, there's literally like a Rubik's cube of 25 different criteria we looked at.But one of the most important thing is a long-term committed ownership group. And we found that in spades in these three cities. ...