Private Credit Opportunity - Private credit sees a huge opportunity in infrastructure and digital infrastructure, with potentially high margins and lucrative coupons [1] - The sector is attracting significant attention, with many participants trying to enter the market [1] - UBS expresses concerns about the market becoming overheated and risks emerging due to excessive capital inflow [2] - Despite concerns, the industry remains somewhat skeptical about the long-term impact of potential overblown demand [2] Capital Expenditure and Bond Issuance - Morgan Stanley estimates approximately 3 trillion USD (万亿) in capital expenditure needs for AI over the next three years [3] - This capital expenditure could translate to hundreds of billions USD (千亿) in bond issuance [3] - A significant portion of the issuance is expected to be U S dollar denominated [3] Investment Grade Debt - The majority of the debt issuance is likely to be investment grade [4] - Long maturities of the debt instruments enable companies to achieve investment grade ratings [4] - The presence of underlying assets provides additional security [4][5]

Is this a good thing for Intel. It's a life saver. They were on an unclear path before the government decided to renegotiate its deal.Let's not forget that the U.S. government already had a deal with Intel. It's we're going to give you $6 billion and we're going to get a colored profit share down the line. What this administration is doing is just renegotiating the deal.It's saying that's not good enough. We want to take an equity stake. And by the way, Intel is different because part of this deal is a big ...

What was so interesting is this brought the ire of President Trump. He was frustrated that Apple was doing more of its manufacturing in India, shifting from China. He wanted it in the US.But has Tim Cook done enough therefore in the United States to offset this. I think Tim Cook eventually will do enough in the United States to offset it. But today the answer to that is now, and it's not unexpected that they move this to India.They've been working with India since roughly 2017. So it takes a long time to bu ...

I mean, as we're seeing record bookings, record number of large new clients, megadeals, we're talking about new cash. Is it all about platform ization is all about the suite of products you're able to offer them a lot of this year. Again, Caroline, and thank you for remembering our platform ization.Yes, it is. I think it is about the problem in the industry. The industry has got too many fragmented players where the customers are left to do the stitching and cybersecurity themselves.And now the pace at whic ...

Market Volatility & Geopolitical Risks - Increased volatility and building risks are observed due to the unpredictable nature of US government actions and their potential misalignment with business objectives [2][4] - US government interference introduces uncertainty, impacting long-term revenue prospects for companies like NVIDIA and AMD, despite short-term gains from revised sales policies in China [3][4] - Investors are seeking strategies to hedge against market volatility, especially considering the concentration of equity benchmark gains in a few names [5] Investment Strategies & Diversification - Diversification away from highly valued US equities towards sectors with growth potential is recommended [6] - Buying put options is considered as a hedging strategy against potential market sell-offs and valuation corrections [6] - Diversification of portfolios is favored over betting against specific companies, with a focus on mitigating downside risk [9][10] International Opportunities - International companies are poised to gain market share, presenting opportunities in international markets as US technology companies are perceived as fully valued [7] - Opportunities are emerging in European military and defense technologies, as well as Asian foundries and chipmakers like TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), Samsung, and SK Hynix [12][13] - The industry anticipates increased technology spending in Europe driven by defense-related investments [11]

Meta AI is a total mixed bag. The chatbot is plagued by brand trust issues, unfinished features, and unclear direction. But the potential is massive.Just ask its rivals, Chat GBT, Google Gemini, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot. They've all called Meta AI impressive in some ways, frustrating in other ways. And they're not wrong.Meta's assistant now reaches over a billion users thanks to integration across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and devices like Rayban smart glasses and the Quest headset. But it's s ...

this shift of what Doge is now, you wrote a great piece for Wired about, you know, quote unquote Doge 2.0%. What do you see as Doge 2.0%. >> So, a lot of those folks who were brought on at the beginning, Edward Bigballs, Corine, Luke Farader, who Bloomberg did a wonderful profile of, a lot of those kids are still in government, right.They're at a variety of different agencies. Farader is still at the Department of Labor. Um, he still has, you know, a tremendous amount of power.I think Doge 1.0% can be defin ...

Product Performance & Strategy - Apple's Vision Pro launch is considered a potential flop, contrasting with the success of previous major product categories like the Apple Watch, iPod, iPhone, and iPad [1][2] - The limited immersive video content available for the Vision Pro is a key constraint, with only 27 pieces released in the last 18 months, creating a dilemma between content investment and headset sales [3][4] - Apple plans to release a lighter, cheaper, and revamped version of the Vision Pro in 2027 [5] - Apple will refresh the Vision Pro in the coming weeks with a faster processor and a new strap to improve performance and comfort [6] Competitive Landscape & Future Outlook - Augmented reality glasses are expected to become standard for tech companies within 3-5 years [7] - Google and Samsung are also developing augmented reality technology [7] - Apple's original concept was glasses, but they are waiting until the visual quality matches the Vision Pro [8]

Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Supply Chain - Establishing a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing business is possible but faces challenges [1] - Building the infrastructure for harvesting and refining rare earths takes considerable time, impacting EV production [2] - Government intervention is warranted in cases of market failure or negative externalities related to public goods like climate [4][5] - Ford and other U S manufacturers have experienced production pauses due to rare earth supply shortages [6] - The U S refining infrastructure for rare earths is estimated to be up to speed within 5 to 10 years [7] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market & Policy - The transition to EVs accelerated after 2010, reaching approximately 10% market share [8] - IRS tax credits have significantly influenced EV sales, with potential slowdowns anticipated without them [8][9] - Domestic sourcing of critical minerals is crucial for climate and national security reasons [9] - The Trump administration invested in private industry, such as MP Materials, to advance domestic rare earth production [3]

I have to say, I'm following these companies closely. And when you know the unit sales numbers come out every month, I'm shocked to see how small they are for EVs in general. But also the fact that all these companies have tried to get in with pickup trucks first.Why is that. I think when you had announcements from Rivian and Tesla early on that they were going to go with trucks. I think what everybody figured is the US pickup market is so big that even if a small portion of it went electric, you would stil ...