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Why ALT Season Has Not Happened
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-11-04 05:37
Market Analysis & Altcoin Performance - Altcoins have been underperforming against Bitcoin since 2021 [2] - Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs recently hit a new low of 029% [3] - Historically, significant alt seasons have only occurred after altcoin/Bitcoin pairs reach 025% [3] - The current altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are at 036% [4] - The analysis suggests altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach 025% [26][27] - An altcoin market cap is expected to be approximately 25% of Bitcoin's market cap [28] Social Interest & Market Cycles - Low social interest in crypto, similar to the period from January 2018 to the end of 2019, contributes to the underperformance of altcoins [7] - The current market cycle is being compared to the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening [11][12][14] - The entire 2019 rally for Bitcoin occurred during quantitative tightening, similar to the current cycle [14] - Bitcoin dominance is breaking through its bull market support band, indicating a likely continued rally [30] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative tightening in December [9] - Historically, altcoin/Bitcoin pairs bottomed when quantitative tightening ended, but this did not immediately trigger an alt season [9] - The end of quantitative tightening might lead to a bounce in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs [17] - The analysis suggests that high interest rates and quantitative tightening have contributed to Bitcoin's outperformance and the absence of an alt season [25] Bitcoin Performance & Dominance - Bitcoin is taking liquidity from the altcoin market to maintain its position above $100000, similar to how it took liquidity to stay above $10000 in 2019 [34] - Bitcoin dominance is expected to continue to rise, at least until early December [26] - A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently around $103000, could indicate the end of the cycle [32][33]
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 64)
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-11-03 02:44
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin, the beauty of mathematics part 64. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. It's hard to believe that we're now on part 64 of this series. And in fact, we've actually done a few more than that because beforehand, I just called it something else for calling it Bi ...
Bitcoin: Doooooobious Spookulation
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-31 17:21
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious spookulation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, with it being Halloween, I thought we could look at Bitcoin in a more dubious and spooky way.So, one of the things that I was thinking about like, well, what what could ...
Bitcoin 4th Quarter
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-30 20:55
Now, I will say that I do firmly believe that the top for this market cycle is going to be the fourth quarter of this of this year. And we've said that for a while, right. Normally, it's the fourth quarter of the post having year.It's not what I want to happen, right. Like, and again, like I think people need to recognize that, you know, from 2022 until 2025, I was bearish on the ETH Bitcoin valuation. And a lot of people took that out on me because they they they were motivated to think it would go up fina ...
The Fed Announces QT Will End in December
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-30 14:58
The Fed has announced that the quantitative tightening will be ending on December 1st. Let's talk about what this means for the markets. Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com Into The Cryptoverse Newsletter: https://newsletter.intothecryptoverse.com/ LIFETIME OPTION: https://intothecryptoverse.com/product/subscription-to-the-premium-list-lifetime/ Alternative Option: https://www.patreon.com/intothecryptoverse Merch: https://store.intothecryptoverse.com/ Disclaimer: The informatio ...
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-27 05:01
Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin closed above the bull market support band, a crucial indicator for maintaining the current cycle [2][3] - Staying above the 50-week moving average is vital for the bull market's integrity; the 50-week moving average is approximately $13,000 [6][8] - Bitcoin dominance has been slowly trending higher, moving from 57% to 59% over the past month and a half [17] - A break above 60% Bitcoin dominance could trigger a significant surge [18] Key Levels & Indicators - The 20-week SMA is around $13,400, and Bitcoin closed the week at $13,550 [8] - Watching for weekly closes below prior highs, especially around $125,000 if new all-time highs are reached, is crucial for identifying potential market turning points [16][22] External Factors - Speculation about the Federal Reserve potentially ending quantitative tightening may be influencing Bitcoin dominance [9][10]
Bitcoin Dominance: The Grueling Final Rotation
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-26 04:05
Market Analysis & Prediction - The analysis suggests Bitcoin dominance is poised for an explosive move above 60% [1] - The analyst believes that understanding Bitcoin dominance is key to success in the cryptoverse [3] - The report anticipates that those expecting a rejection of Bitcoin dominance at the bull market support band will be mistaken, favoring liquidity flowing back to Bitcoin [9] - The analysis draws parallels with 2017, 2019 and 2020, noting similar patterns in Bitcoin dominance around October, suggesting a potential rally into the year-end [9][10][12][15] - The analyst argues that narrative follows price, not the other way around, minimizing the need to justify views based on the news cycle [8] Monetary Policy Impact - The analysis suggests that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily be bearish for Bitcoin dominance unless they fall below the theoretical neutral rate, approximated by the 2-year yield (around 35%) [17][18][19][20][26] - The report notes that the market (specifically the 2-year yield) dictates the Fed's actions, and the Fed is currently behind in responding to market signals [23][24][26] - The analysis indicates that if the Fed announces the continuation of quantitative tightening (QT) on the 29th, Bitcoin dominance is likely to surge [27] Risk Considerations - The analysis acknowledges that an earlier-than-expected end to quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve could potentially invalidate the bullish outlook on Bitcoin dominance [16] - The analysis also notes that a potential government shutdown impacting the release of economic data could lead to the Fed cutting rates more aggressively (50 basis points or more), although this scenario is considered less likely due to rising inflation [21][22] Bitcoin Performance - Despite the continuous creation of new altcoins, Bitcoin pairs have been consistently declining throughout the cycle [30]
This is Where It Gets Interesting
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-25 16:20
Now, here's where it gets interesting. There was a report that came out, I think today, where they basically said that there's a good chance that in November the inflation data won't even be released. So, again, this is the government basically, and I guess due to the government shutdown, right.This is one way of of solving our problems. You can't have bad data if the data doesn't exist, right. So we can just go around and, you know, have our hands in our ears and pretend like nothing's going wrong and then ...
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-24 04:04
Market Analysis & Predictions - The analysis suggests Ethereum (ETH) will likely top out within the next 3 months, assuming the top isn't already in [15] - The report anticipates a potential bounce for ETH against Bitcoin (BTC) in November, but a significant turnaround might not occur until December [39] - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin dominance is expected to increase in the short term, potentially impacting Ethereum's performance [36][38] - The report suggests that the final move for Ethereum against Bitcoin may not start until December, similar to the 2017 cycle [38] - The base case remains that Ethereum will bounce around the bull market support band and potentially reach new all-time highs [41][48] ETH/BTC Pair Analysis - The analysis notes that ETH/BTC found a local top on the week of August 18th, coinciding with ETHUSD sweeping the prior all-time high [17] - Historically, ETH tends to be red against Bitcoin in September and October, with an average drop of about 9-10% [19] - There's a possibility of ETH/BTC dropping below the bull market support band, potentially down to around 0031, before a potential rally to 0053 [22] - The report outlines a potential three-move pattern for both ETH/BTC and ETH/USD pairs to end the market cycle [34][35] Technical Indicators & Comparisons - Ethereum's 20-week SMA is around 3795, and the 21-week EMA is around 3793, approximating to 3800 [9] - The analysis draws parallels between Ethereum's movements and Tesla's (TSLA) past performance, noting similar lows and rallies [25][27] - The report suggests that if Ethereum follows the Tesla fractal, a potential low around 2000 might occur in April 2026 [31]
See you in Amsterdam!
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-22 18:57
I wanted to mention that I will be going to Bitcoin Amsterdam next month and I'm actually going to be speaking um on one of the stages on uh during the conference right during the conference. So if you are interested make sure you guys check that out. Again that's November 13th and 14th in Amsterdam.I'll be speaking with the uh uh I know we're talking with the the rational route. Um, we have Andre and then Matt Crosby as well will be there. So, looking forward to to seeing a lot of you guys there. ...