Inflation Analysis - The producer price index (PPI) increased significantly from approximately 23% to 33% year-over-year, a full percentage point increase, exceeding market expectations of 25% [3][4] - The consumer price index (CPI) saw a smaller increase, rising from 267% to about 273% [3] - PPI measures inflation upstream at the production or wholesale stage, while CPI measures it downstream at the consumer level [6][7] - While upstream prices are increasing, it remains to be seen if these costs will be passed on to consumers and reflected in CPI [8][9] - Food and beverage inflation remained relatively stable, while housing inflation decreased, masking increases in other categories such as medical care and recreation [17][18][19] - Housing inflation accounts for approximately two-thirds of overall CPI [20] Market Impact and Monetary Policy - The surge in PPI caused market sell-offs, particularly around 8:30 AM when the data was released [17][33] - Despite the PPI increase, the market still anticipates a rate cut in September, with approximately a 90% probability, although this was previously higher at 97% or 98% [23] - The report suggests that even with a rate cut, the long end of the yield curve may increase due to inflation concerns [24] - Cutting rates with rising inflation may not improve the housing market and could potentially worsen it [27] Consumer Behavior - Sales are declining at some stores like Chipotle, Cava, and Sweetgreen, indicating that consumers may be unwilling to pay higher prices [10][11][13][14] - Lower-end pizza chains are experiencing increased demand, suggesting consumers are seeking more affordable options [12][15]

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Market Analysis and Altcoin Valuation - The crypto industry should prioritize Bitcoin valuation over USD valuation for altcoins, as USD's purchasing power asymptotically approaches zero over time [2][3][4] - The industry primarily values altcoins against Bitcoin or Ethereum, deeming other valuations less relevant for assessing risk and potential uptrends [5] - Altcoins have decreased approximately 61% from their 2021 highs against Bitcoin, with a maximum decrease of about 69% [6] - The industry anticipates altcoins to rally against Bitcoin through late August [9][10] - Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin has likely bottomed out for this market cycle [11] Bitcoin Dominance and Trend Reversals - Bitcoin dominance often encounters resistance at Fibonacci retracement levels [8] - Historically, Bitcoin dominance tends to reverse its course in September [25][27][28][29][30][44] - Bitcoin dominance typically drops whenever Bitcoin breaks out of a long consolidation period [35][36][37] Ethereum's Influence and Potential "Fake Alt Season" - Altcoins' upward movement against Bitcoin is primarily driven by Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin [17][18][32] - Altcoins have been consistently underperforming Ethereum since April [19][21][70] - The industry foresees a potential "fake alt season" following Ethereum reaching new all-time highs, followed by a correction in September [54][62] Future Outlook and Strategy - A Bitcoin correction is expected in September, potentially leading to increased Bitcoin dominance [40][65] - Altcoins are expected to rally against Bitcoin for the remainder of August, but this trend may reverse in September [22][66][71][74] - The industry suggests a rotation back to Bitcoin is likely to begin in approximately two weeks [67]

Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin bull markets historically conclude with a pattern: July-August increase, September pullback, October rally, and a Q4 market cycle top [1] - Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in midterm years, despite strong performance in July-August and Q4 of post-halving years [3] Predictive Analysis - Narrative often follows price movements rather than the reverse [3] - The historical pattern of Bitcoin's performance may or may not repeat [2]

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Ethereum as it appears set to target new all-time highs. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Link is in the description below where you can follow along more closely. Ethereum continues to show strength.And again, this shows you the power of Ethereum after it goes ...

So, Bitcoin is nearing new all-time highs. Again, the prior all-time high is just over 123,000. And right now, it's approaching, Bitcoin is approaching 122,000.Now, one of the things to remember, we put out a video on this about a week ago or so. We discussed Bitcoin monthly returns in post having years in the month of August. And you can see an interesting pattern emerges. ...

Market Analysis and Predictions - Bitcoin is approaching its prior all-time high of just over 123,000 [2] - Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin may continue to perform well for most of the current month, followed by a pullback in September to the bull market support band, and then a potential market cycle peak in the fourth quarter [5] - If historical patterns continue, a slight pullback in September could correspond to a final drop by all Bitcoin pairs potentially to the range lows [10] - The analyst estimates that all Bitcoin pairs will find a local top around late August [12][13] - Ethereum's valuation is likely to continue to increase against Bitcoin for the next couple of weeks [16] Bull Market Support Band - The bull market support band currently ranges from around 105,000 to 107,000, and is moving up [7] - If the price were to stay constant, the 20-week SMA would be around 110,000 to 115,000 by mid-September [9] - The analyst suggests that wherever the bull market support band ends up being in September is probably where the next pullback will be [17] Historical Cycle Comparison - Previous cycles ended around day 1,59 and day 1,67, suggesting potentially a couple more months in the current cycle [6] - In prior post-halving years, July and August were green, with a slight pullback in September before going into the market cycle top [10] - Altcoins tend to drop against Bitcoin during both Bitcoin pullbacks and rallies [11][12]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Ethereum as it has finally broken through $4,000. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com where we have covered this move fairly closely for the last several years. this move by Ethereum and we're going to go through that in this video as well. Talk about, you know, what's ha ...

Interest Rates and Housing Affordability - Lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not inherently make housing more affordable; in some cases, it can make it less affordable [2][3] - Mortgage rates are more dependent on the long end of the yield curve (e.g., 10-year and 30-year yields) and typically trade 1.5% to 2% higher due to associated risks [6] - The Fed is projected to lower interest rates in September, but this may change based on labor market reports and inflation readings [7] - If the Fed cuts rates preemptively to avoid a recession, it can reignite "animal spirits," causing markets to rise and the bond market to reprice inflation risk, potentially increasing mortgage rates [12][13][14] - Cutting rates prematurely may worsen the real estate market [34] Asset Prices and Housing Market Improvement - Lower asset prices are needed to achieve a durable improvement in housing affordability [22][23][25] - Lower asset prices lead to a lower long end of the yield curve, which in turn leads to lower mortgage rates [39] - The market may take 6 to 12 months to accept the reality that lower asset prices are necessary to improve the real estate market [23] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The housing market is currently seeing a drop in new privately-owned housing units under construction due to unaffordability [20][21] - The author anticipates that after a second round of rate cuts, potentially starting in September, the long end of the yield curve will likely increase, leading to higher mortgage rates [29][30] - It may take a couple of years for the market to accept that lower asset prices are needed to improve the real estate market [33]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin monthly returns. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Remember, when we talk about what tends to happen, that doesn't mean that it always has to play out like that. For example, September is normally a red month, but every so often it ends up being green.When ...